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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: A few clouds and colder - some fog possible - this could cause slick spots with freezing temperatures.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 45 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Some clouds. Fog possible - freezing temps may cause some slick spots.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 becoming northwest at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: South winds at 5-10 becoming northwest at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 40 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.Wind: North winds at 5-15 mph = gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Could be some freezing fog at night and during the morning hours.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Could be some freezing fog at night and during the morning hours.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Could be some freezing fog at night and during the morning hours.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Today started out with snow, sleet, and rain across the southern half of the region. At best a dusting fell in some of our southern counties. The heavier snow was down in Arkansas and Tennessee where 1/2-3" of snow fell.
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Folks this is not going to be a boring weather pattern for long - signals are already showing up that indicate we are going to have an active few weeks ahead of us. Enjoy the calm for the next few days and the coming weekend - it probably won't last too long.
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That system is pushing away from our region and a few calm days are in store for our region - at least into the weekend. We deserve a break from the active weather.
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Fog will be possible both tonight and on Thursday night. Temperatures below freezing may cause moisture to freeze on bridges and overpasses - use caution if this occurs.
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Temperatures on Thursday will once again be below normal - here are the departure maps - this shows you how much below normal temperatures will be (highs) - this isn't the actual temperature - this is how many degrees below normal it will be. Remember normal highs are around 49 degrees for this time of the year. Below normal temperatures over much of the nation.
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Another cold front will pass through the region on Friday - this will keep below normal temperatures around for the foreseeable future.
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The next chance for widespread precipitation still appears to be around the 14th-18th. It is too early to make a call on rain vs snow. Right now the data is leaning towards an all rain event. Long way off. Will update each day with new data.
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Lakes and rivers continue to rise in some of our counties - you can view that information by clicking here - click down to your state.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index map - as you can see we are in the GREEN - that means we have been experiencing ABOVE average rainfall (this is not a surprise)
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Soil moisture anomalies map shows that we are WET - extremely moist in our region. This is bad news as we move into winter - if this pattern continues then we will have another bad flood season ahead of us.
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Precipitation forecasts for the next few days - the cold front on Thursday night and Friday will spark some light precipitation along it - mainly to our north. Again - light.
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HEADLINE: Today started out with snow, sleet, and rain across the southern half of the region. At best a dusting fell in some of our southern counties. The heavier snow was down in Arkansas and Tennessee where 1/2-3" of snow fell.
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Folks this is not going to be a boring weather pattern for long - signals are already showing up that indicate we are going to have an active few weeks ahead of us. Enjoy the calm for the next few days and the coming weekend - it probably won't last too long.
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That system is pushing away from our region and a few calm days are in store for our region - at least into the weekend. We deserve a break from the active weather.
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Fog will be possible both tonight and on Thursday night. Temperatures below freezing may cause moisture to freeze on bridges and overpasses - use caution if this occurs.
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Temperatures on Thursday will once again be below normal - here are the departure maps - this shows you how much below normal temperatures will be (highs) - this isn't the actual temperature - this is how many degrees below normal it will be. Remember normal highs are around 49 degrees for this time of the year. Below normal temperatures over much of the nation.
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Another cold front will pass through the region on Friday - this will keep below normal temperatures around for the foreseeable future.
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The next chance for widespread precipitation still appears to be around the 14th-18th. It is too early to make a call on rain vs snow. Right now the data is leaning towards an all rain event. Long way off. Will update each day with new data.
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Lakes and rivers continue to rise in some of our counties - you can view that information by clicking here - click down to your state.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index map - as you can see we are in the GREEN - that means we have been experiencing ABOVE average rainfall (this is not a surprise)
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Soil moisture anomalies map shows that we are WET - extremely moist in our region. This is bad news as we move into winter - if this pattern continues then we will have another bad flood season ahead of us.
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Precipitation forecasts for the next few days - the cold front on Thursday night and Friday will spark some light precipitation along it - mainly to our north. Again - light.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow concerns for the next few days - in our immediate local counties.
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No snow concerns for the next few days - in our immediate local counties.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: High
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event.
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 19th - December 23rd
Event: Precipitation event - significant storm system possible.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. Followed by another large blast of cold air.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: High
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event.
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 19th - December 23rd
Event: Precipitation event - significant storm system possible.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. Followed by another large blast of cold air.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Rivers will remain high for the next few days/weeks. If you have river interests then check the latest lake and river stage forecasts.
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Continue to tweak the dates for the upcoming events - I have been zeroing in for awhile now on the 14-18th time period then again towards the end of the month - have adjusted the second event and will be watching the 20th-24th time frame then again around the 27th-30th.
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Some of the data shows the potential for several large storm systems impacting the central and eastern United States during these time frames.
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Next widespread precipitation event appears to be around the 14th-18th. Will monitor and update. Still a bit too far off to make a call on precipitation type. Right now the data is indicating a rain event. Whether it ends as snow or not - still too far out to make a call.
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Trying to give you the general pattern idea in these long range predictions - not specifics - specifics come as we pull closer to the event.
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I said that the pattern would have more temperature swings as we pushed towards the 11th-18th - so let's take a look at what the GFS model has to say about that subject.
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This first map is the temperature anomalies forecast for tomorrow (the 8th) and then the second map is for next Wednesday - you can see that it is forecasting below normal temperatures for tomorrow but then as we push into next week it is showing some moderation and even perhaps some above normal temperature days.
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This will likely be associated with the next storm system. A lot of times during the winter months we will experience cold weather and then in front of the next storm it warms up a bit.
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These are ensemble maps - ensembles are the same computer model (the GFS in this case) but tweaked a little bit differently for each frame/forecast - this gives forecasters a little better idea of the possibilities when analyzing long range forecasts.
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You can see that virtually every ensemble member is indicating below normal temperatures for tomorrow over a large chunk of the United States. All of these frames are for the same day - tomorrow the 8th.
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Now this next map is for next Wednesday - the 14th of December. The red/orange areas are where temperatures may be above normal - the blue areas are below normal. All of these frames are for the 14th of December - next Wednesday. You see a little more variation in each frame because it is further out than tomorrows forecast - uncertainty always builds the further out you go during a forecast period.
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Continue to tweak the dates for the upcoming events - I have been zeroing in for awhile now on the 14-18th time period then again towards the end of the month - have adjusted the second event and will be watching the 20th-24th time frame then again around the 27th-30th.
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Some of the data shows the potential for several large storm systems impacting the central and eastern United States during these time frames.
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Next widespread precipitation event appears to be around the 14th-18th. Will monitor and update. Still a bit too far off to make a call on precipitation type. Right now the data is indicating a rain event. Whether it ends as snow or not - still too far out to make a call.
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Trying to give you the general pattern idea in these long range predictions - not specifics - specifics come as we pull closer to the event.
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I said that the pattern would have more temperature swings as we pushed towards the 11th-18th - so let's take a look at what the GFS model has to say about that subject.
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This first map is the temperature anomalies forecast for tomorrow (the 8th) and then the second map is for next Wednesday - you can see that it is forecasting below normal temperatures for tomorrow but then as we push into next week it is showing some moderation and even perhaps some above normal temperature days.
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This will likely be associated with the next storm system. A lot of times during the winter months we will experience cold weather and then in front of the next storm it warms up a bit.
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These are ensemble maps - ensembles are the same computer model (the GFS in this case) but tweaked a little bit differently for each frame/forecast - this gives forecasters a little better idea of the possibilities when analyzing long range forecasts.
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You can see that virtually every ensemble member is indicating below normal temperatures for tomorrow over a large chunk of the United States. All of these frames are for the same day - tomorrow the 8th.
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Now this next map is for next Wednesday - the 14th of December. The red/orange areas are where temperatures may be above normal - the blue areas are below normal. All of these frames are for the 14th of December - next Wednesday. You see a little more variation in each frame because it is further out than tomorrows forecast - uncertainty always builds the further out you go during a forecast period.
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What are the chances for a white Christmas? Right now I give them a 10% chance.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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