December 28th-29th: Swings in temperature pattern the next 2 weeks

December 28th-29th, 2011
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night:  A few clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday:  Partly sunny skies.      
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 54 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph - gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Thursday night:  Increasing clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s to lower 40s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday:  Mostly cloudy.  Windy at times.  A small chance for a shower.  Falling temperatures late.
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 48 degrees - falling during the late afternoon hours | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts  
Precipitation probability - 20%  Rainfall totals:  0.10" 
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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No concerns


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No
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No wild cards in the forecast.
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No major changes in the forecast.
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No snow in the forecast.  No probabilities at this time.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Thursday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipatedNo snow or ice.
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day:  Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No

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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:   Calm weather the next few days - breezy from time to time.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 





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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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No rain in our local forecast through Friday



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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in our forecast...

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  December 29th-January 7th
Event:  Strong cold front - pushes through on Sunday/Monday with rain perhaps ending as snow.  Then colder air.   Above normal temperatures weekend into the 1st - then below normal temperatures following the 1st.  Front on Sunday/Monday has a low chance for producing precipitation - overall first week of January appears to be leaning towards BELOW normal precipitation.
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Strong cold front followed by below normal temperatures - below normal temperatures may last into the first week of January - data indicates our region may ride the warmer vs colder air masses - will have to monitor for timing of both.  Could be swings in temperature averages from below to above normal.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium 
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Date Range:  January 6th-20th
Event:  Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold.  Trends are towards several  cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  Possibly 2-3 precipitation events.
Severe Risk:  Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possibly
Details:  Potential for some swings in the weather. 
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  Out of town - shorter update.  Mostly dry pattern for the next 5-8 days - strong cold front Sunday/Monday will bring colder air.  Then it appears we swing from above to below normal temperatures into the first 1-2 weeks of January.  Couple of precipitation events past the short range - could be below normal precipitation for the first week of January - possibly a bit longer than that.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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