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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Mostly clear and cold.
Below Normal Temperatures
Lows: in the upper teens to lower 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.Below Normal Temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Mostly sunny skies and cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 42 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Easterly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Mostly clear and cold
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny skies. Not quite as cold.
Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 48 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Cold enough for you this morning? Temperatures on Saturday morning were in the teens over portions of the region - a brrrr morning.
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Temperatures will remain cold tonight into Sunday with well below normal temperatures. Some moderation will occur in front of our next storm system which is scheduled to arrive on Wednesday/Thursday.
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The following maps show you the temperature DEPARTURES from normal - how much above or below normal are we? The blue is below normal and the yellow is above normal. We are clearly below normal in the temperature department! Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48-50 degrees and normal lows are around freezing.
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The first map is for Saturday (we were below normal today - of course) - the second map is the forecast departures for Sunday - then Monday and then Tuesday. See how we moderate in FRONT of the next storm system? That is because the area of low pressure will pass to our west - PULLING warm air up in front of it. Remember that areas of low pressure turn counter-clockwise.
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Here is the www.wright-weather.com temperature map on Wednesday - see how the storm PULLS up warmer air from the south? Ahead of the cold front - then the second map shows you the temperatures behind the system on Saturday. Colder behind the storm.
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Click image for real view size
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Rainfall totals will probably be in the 0.50-1.00" range with the mid-week storm system. Can't rule out some rumbles of thunder - strong dynamics (although instability may be lacking).
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Here is what the precipitation map should look like on Thursday - snow well to our north.
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I ran the analogs on this next storm system (the Wednesday into Friday storm) to see what previous storms of this type produced. What I asked was what are the probabilities (chances) for 1" of rain - for 2" of rain - and then I asked it about severe weather. This is what I came up with - click the image for real view size.
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You can see from the first image that the odds are fairly high for this system to produce a widespread rain event in the 0.50-1.00" range. Decent probabilities.
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You can see from the second image that the chances for 2" of rain diminish quite a bit.
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You can see from the third image that storm systems in this past that match up well to this system have produced some severe weather reports. Most of the analog storms had some instability to work with - which may be lacking with this storm. However, it is a bit early to make that call. So - I will monitor and update in the coming days.
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Here is what the Storm Prediction Center had to say about the risk for strong or severe storms with the Wednesday through Friday storm system. They aren't overly concerned at this point. I think if there were to be some severe weather it might be west of our region or to the south of our region.
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Then our next storm system arrives next weekend into the early part of the following week - we have been tracking that one for awhile. The question will be temperature profiles in the region. Right now most of the data indicates a mostly rain event. Could be another heavy rain event - at that.
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See the long range for the updated Christmas forecast
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Rivers will remain high for some time to come - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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Here is the latest soil moisture capacity map - WET is the word for our region.HEADLINE: Cold enough for you this morning? Temperatures on Saturday morning were in the teens over portions of the region - a brrrr morning.
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Temperatures will remain cold tonight into Sunday with well below normal temperatures. Some moderation will occur in front of our next storm system which is scheduled to arrive on Wednesday/Thursday.
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The following maps show you the temperature DEPARTURES from normal - how much above or below normal are we? The blue is below normal and the yellow is above normal. We are clearly below normal in the temperature department! Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48-50 degrees and normal lows are around freezing.
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The first map is for Saturday (we were below normal today - of course) - the second map is the forecast departures for Sunday - then Monday and then Tuesday. See how we moderate in FRONT of the next storm system? That is because the area of low pressure will pass to our west - PULLING warm air up in front of it. Remember that areas of low pressure turn counter-clockwise.
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Here is the www.wright-weather.com temperature map on Wednesday - see how the storm PULLS up warmer air from the south? Ahead of the cold front - then the second map shows you the temperatures behind the system on Saturday. Colder behind the storm.
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Click image for real view size
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Rainfall totals will probably be in the 0.50-1.00" range with the mid-week storm system. Can't rule out some rumbles of thunder - strong dynamics (although instability may be lacking).
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Here is what the precipitation map should look like on Thursday - snow well to our north.
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I ran the analogs on this next storm system (the Wednesday into Friday storm) to see what previous storms of this type produced. What I asked was what are the probabilities (chances) for 1" of rain - for 2" of rain - and then I asked it about severe weather. This is what I came up with - click the image for real view size.
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You can see from the first image that the odds are fairly high for this system to produce a widespread rain event in the 0.50-1.00" range. Decent probabilities.
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You can see from the second image that the chances for 2" of rain diminish quite a bit.
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You can see from the third image that storm systems in this past that match up well to this system have produced some severe weather reports. Most of the analog storms had some instability to work with - which may be lacking with this storm. However, it is a bit early to make that call. So - I will monitor and update in the coming days.
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Here is what the Storm Prediction Center had to say about the risk for strong or severe storms with the Wednesday through Friday storm system. They aren't overly concerned at this point. I think if there were to be some severe weather it might be west of our region or to the south of our region.
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Then our next storm system arrives next weekend into the early part of the following week - we have been tracking that one for awhile. The question will be temperature profiles in the region. Right now most of the data indicates a mostly rain event. Could be another heavy rain event - at that.
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See the long range for the updated Christmas forecast
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Rivers will remain high for some time to come - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in the short range forecast
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No snow in the short range forecast
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 16th - December 23rd
Event: Precipitation event - significant storm system possible. Heavy rain possible.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. Followed by another large blast of cold air.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 16th - December 23rd
Event: Precipitation event - significant storm system possible. Heavy rain possible.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. Followed by another large blast of cold air.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Increased the confidence levels on the third event - to medium. The first event is ongoing - well forecast below normal temperatures. The second event will likely be another rain producer - locally heavy rain possible - even a rumble of thunder.
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There are some questions as to how the event on the 18th-23rd unfolds. Right now it appears like quite a bit of moisture might interact with yet another in a series of storm systems in/near our region. Some of the earlier data was indicating enough cold air to produce snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Now today's data is warmer. Watching for trends - a bit too early to establish them. The idea of a storm in that period appears on target. Now I will need to work out the details.
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What I don't want to do is promise anyone snow :) - I love snow - don't get me wrong. But promising snow every week won't help deliver the snow. I give you the storm potential dates and then I fine tune what the precipitation type will be. It is as much of a roller coaster for me as it is for you - watching the storms unfold. Always interesting to watch because no two storms are alike.
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The pattern is LOADED - very active pattern. We just need the right combination of cold and precipitation to produce snow.
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a LONG LONG way off - I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from Wright-Weather and click the image for full view size.
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Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride this roller-coaster together! This time the GFS is showing precipitation both days - and is colder. This particular run could be snow. At least there is a storm to watch - keep hope alive!
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There are some questions as to how the event on the 18th-23rd unfolds. Right now it appears like quite a bit of moisture might interact with yet another in a series of storm systems in/near our region. Some of the earlier data was indicating enough cold air to produce snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Now today's data is warmer. Watching for trends - a bit too early to establish them. The idea of a storm in that period appears on target. Now I will need to work out the details.
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What I don't want to do is promise anyone snow :) - I love snow - don't get me wrong. But promising snow every week won't help deliver the snow. I give you the storm potential dates and then I fine tune what the precipitation type will be. It is as much of a roller coaster for me as it is for you - watching the storms unfold. Always interesting to watch because no two storms are alike.
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The pattern is LOADED - very active pattern. We just need the right combination of cold and precipitation to produce snow.
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a LONG LONG way off - I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from Wright-Weather and click the image for full view size.
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.Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride this roller-coaster together! This time the GFS is showing precipitation both days - and is colder. This particular run could be snow. At least there is a storm to watch - keep hope alive!
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Here is the GFS data - see the changes with each day? This is because it is the LONG range forecast. But - it is still fun to watch.
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Now I am giving you the surface maps here - simple look at what the model believes could happen on those days. The 500 mb maps have a signal for a decent system around the 21st-23rd - rain ending as snow. Then another weak system around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day - followed by an Alberta Clipper type system on the 26th or 27th.
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Bottom line - these maps still indicate some chances for precipitation the week of Christmas - right on into Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Keep hope alive for snow? I would say - yes. There is still a shot at some precipitation around those dates. Active to very active storm track through the rest of the month - plenty to monitor.
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Check back tomorrow and we will see what the data shows.
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AND SPEAKING OF COLD!!! The GFS maps show a bitterly cold air mass for Christmas Even and Christmas Day - keep in mind this is LONG range - but fun to watch! Images from www.wright-weather.com
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Click image for full view size
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AND SPEAKING OF COLD!!! The GFS maps show a bitterly cold air mass for Christmas Even and Christmas Day - keep in mind this is LONG range - but fun to watch! Images from www.wright-weather.com
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Click image for full view size
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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