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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: A few clouds. Not quite as cold as recent nights..
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to upper 30s to lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Increasing clouds. Pleasant weather - ENJOY :) - Milder.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 58-64 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Cloudy - windy at times. A good chance for rain showers - especially late.
Above normal temperatures.
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 80% mostly late at night | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 80% mostly late at night | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Rain likely. Rain may be heavy at times.
Near normal to Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 55 degrees - falling temperatures possible late in the afternoon | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Near normal to Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph turning westerly late in the day.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.60-1.00" Locally heavier amounts possible.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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More rain on Sunday night into Tuesday. A change to snow/ice over our western counties will likely occur on Sunday night into Tuesday morning. See discussion below.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Quite a bit of rain in the coming days. Saturday night into Tuesday. Some additional rises on area rivers will occur. Small stream and creeks may flood in some counties. Low land flooding possible in some areas. Please avoid flooded roadways - remind students on Monday morning to avoid flooded roadways.
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Please avoid flooded roadways - remind students on Monday morning to avoid flooded roadways.
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No wild card in the short range forecast.
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No major changes in the forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Here we go again - another high precipitation event is unfolding for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. What is with this wet pattern for 2011? One of the wetter years that I can remember. Certainly going to be in the top 5 wettest years on record for our region.
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More rain will enter the picture on Saturday night and Sunday. As expected all of the American models have now slowed down the progress of the system. This means that precipitation will continue right on into Tuesday. There will also be colder air moving in behind the cold front - this means we will have to figure out where to place the rain/snow line.
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First things first - the rainfall
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Rain will overspread the region on Saturday night from west to east. This rain will continue into Sunday night. Rainfall totals on Saturday night into Sunday night (7 pm Saturday through 7 am Monday) should be in the 1-2" range in most of our counties. Locally higher totals will be possible. This could cause some problems with streams and creeks.
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Additional rain will likely occur from Monday into Tuesday. Rainfall totals from 7 am Monday through 7 pm Tuesday should be in the 0.50-1.50" range. Locally heavier totals likely in some counties. Highest totals may end up somewhere along the KY/TN border. See rainfall forecast maps below and check back each day for updates.
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Rain will come in waves - there will be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. The exact placement of the heaviest bands of rain is still a bit uncertain. Thinking somewhere in or near our region - most likely between Cape Girardeau to south central Kentucky - including eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, far southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel, far southern Illinois - and western and central Kentucky. Would not be surprised to see some reports of more than 4 inches of rain in a few counties.
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This will cause some flooding problems - low land flooding - stream and creek flooding - roads flooding.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Tuesday). I will update these numbers on Saturday. The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.75-1.25" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 1.25-1.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.75-2.00" of rain falling - a medium chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 2.00-2.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.50-3.00" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 3.00-5.00" of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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These numbers will be updated as forecasts become better defined. Remember these numbers are for the entire rainfall event - Saturday night through Tuesday.
HEADLINE: Here we go again - another high precipitation event is unfolding for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. What is with this wet pattern for 2011? One of the wetter years that I can remember. Certainly going to be in the top 5 wettest years on record for our region.
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More rain will enter the picture on Saturday night and Sunday. As expected all of the American models have now slowed down the progress of the system. This means that precipitation will continue right on into Tuesday. There will also be colder air moving in behind the cold front - this means we will have to figure out where to place the rain/snow line.
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First things first - the rainfall
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Rain will overspread the region on Saturday night from west to east. This rain will continue into Sunday night. Rainfall totals on Saturday night into Sunday night (7 pm Saturday through 7 am Monday) should be in the 1-2" range in most of our counties. Locally higher totals will be possible. This could cause some problems with streams and creeks.
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Additional rain will likely occur from Monday into Tuesday. Rainfall totals from 7 am Monday through 7 pm Tuesday should be in the 0.50-1.50" range. Locally heavier totals likely in some counties. Highest totals may end up somewhere along the KY/TN border. See rainfall forecast maps below and check back each day for updates.
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Rain will come in waves - there will be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. The exact placement of the heaviest bands of rain is still a bit uncertain. Thinking somewhere in or near our region - most likely between Cape Girardeau to south central Kentucky - including eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, far southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel, far southern Illinois - and western and central Kentucky. Would not be surprised to see some reports of more than 4 inches of rain in a few counties.
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This will cause some flooding problems - low land flooding - stream and creek flooding - roads flooding.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Tuesday). I will update these numbers on Saturday. The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.75-1.25" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 1.25-1.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.75-2.00" of rain falling - a medium chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 2.00-2.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.50-3.00" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 3.00-5.00" of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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These numbers will be updated as forecasts become better defined. Remember these numbers are for the entire rainfall event - Saturday night through Tuesday.
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Now about the snow :)
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The next concern will be what happens on Monday into Tuesday. As mentioned earlier in the week - my suspicions were that the front would stall out over or near our region with additional waves of low pressure moving up along it. This would cause precipitation to last longer and would also give the cold air a bit of time to advance east.
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Rain will change to snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Monday into Monday night near or just west of our region. The question is where to put the rain/snow/ice line. Right now the best chance for snow/ice may be along the Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon line - westward. The hilly areas of southeast Missouri will likely experience some accumulating ice.
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A band of significant accumulating snow is likely to fall from southwest Missouri into part of west central Illinois - the question will be how far south and east does that snow/rain line move. This will need to be monitored.
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This will be the first major winter storm of the season for parts of the Missouri Valley.
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The exact track of the storm system on Monday into Tuesday is still in question - along with the amount of cold air that can shift eastward on Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will peak on Sunday afternoon and then start to fall from west to east on Sunday afternoon late into Sunday evening. Rain will first turn to snow/ice over our western counties of southeast Missouri and perhaps western Illinois - more towards the St Louis area.
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A number of questions remain as to how this unfolds. Stay tuned. I will update through the weekend.
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If snow were to fall then, at least at this time, it appears the accumulations would be on the light side in our immediate local counties.
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Cold weather will settle in for awhile starting on Tuesday and lasting into next weekend. Some of the coldest air of the season, thus far, will impact the region. Several days with highs only in the 30s and would not be surprised to see some more teens for overnight lows.
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The next concern will be what happens on Monday into Tuesday. As mentioned earlier in the week - my suspicions were that the front would stall out over or near our region with additional waves of low pressure moving up along it. This would cause precipitation to last longer and would also give the cold air a bit of time to advance east.
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Rain will change to snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Monday into Monday night near or just west of our region. The question is where to put the rain/snow/ice line. Right now the best chance for snow/ice may be along the Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon line - westward. The hilly areas of southeast Missouri will likely experience some accumulating ice.
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A band of significant accumulating snow is likely to fall from southwest Missouri into part of west central Illinois - the question will be how far south and east does that snow/rain line move. This will need to be monitored.
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This will be the first major winter storm of the season for parts of the Missouri Valley.
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The exact track of the storm system on Monday into Tuesday is still in question - along with the amount of cold air that can shift eastward on Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will peak on Sunday afternoon and then start to fall from west to east on Sunday afternoon late into Sunday evening. Rain will first turn to snow/ice over our western counties of southeast Missouri and perhaps western Illinois - more towards the St Louis area.
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A number of questions remain as to how this unfolds. Stay tuned. I will update through the weekend.
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If snow were to fall then, at least at this time, it appears the accumulations would be on the light side in our immediate local counties.
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Cold weather will settle in for awhile starting on Tuesday and lasting into next weekend. Some of the coldest air of the season, thus far, will impact the region. Several days with highs only in the 30s and would not be surprised to see some more teens for overnight lows.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Here is the official map from the HPC - click image for real resolution view
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Here is the official map from the HPC - click image for real resolution view
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in the forecast through Sunday afternoon in our local counties. We will need to monitor Sunday night into Tuesday for the rain/snow line shifting east through Missouri.
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Snow is not in the forecast through Sunday afternoon in our local counties. We will need to monitor Sunday night into Tuesday for the rain/snow line shifting east through Missouri.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 5th - December 7th
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation
Details: Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night. If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday. It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 17th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
. Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation
Details: Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night. If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday. It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 17th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The extended range forecast will be dominated by cold to very cold weather - below normal to much below normal temperatures. No real changes in my thoughts on that subject. The cold weather will lock in for awhile.
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Of course we will be watching the Monday through Wednesday time frame for rain changing to snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain in a few counties - see the discussion in the weather headlines for more details.
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The more difficult questions will center around precipitation chances in the long range - I have been touting a larger storm system for around the 17th-21st. We will watch that time frame. Other lighter precipitation events are possible - some snow - before that time. Clippers coming down from Canada in the northwest flow could provide us with some light precipitation from time to time.
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December is going to prove itself cold - whether it proves itself snowy - we shall see.
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Of course we will be watching the Monday through Wednesday time frame for rain changing to snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain in a few counties - see the discussion in the weather headlines for more details.
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The more difficult questions will center around precipitation chances in the long range - I have been touting a larger storm system for around the 17th-21st. We will watch that time frame. Other lighter precipitation events are possible - some snow - before that time. Clippers coming down from Canada in the northwest flow could provide us with some light precipitation from time to time.
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December is going to prove itself cold - whether it proves itself snowy - we shall see.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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