November 30th - December 1st: Calm the weather through Friday

November 30th and December 1st, 2011

.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.


.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.



.
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.


Wednesday night:  Mostly clear and cold.  .
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: generally in the middle 20s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  Calm winds.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Thursday:  Mostly sunny and cool.    
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 44-48 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

.
Thursday night:  Mostly clear skies - cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  South winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Friday:  A few clouds.  Not quite as cool.

Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 48-52 degrees  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Northeast/easterly winds at 5-10 mph.   
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
.


.


Flood warnings have been issued for some locations along the Ohio River.  For more information about these warnings - click here and then zoom down to your local level.

.
.


.
No - other than river interests. 

.

No major wild cards in the current forecast.
.

.
.
No major changes in the short range forecast.


.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

---
---- 
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
.
Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Thursday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.


.
To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.

.

.
HEADLINE: 
The Ohio River is starting to flood in some of our local counties - for the latest information on these river stages - click here.
.
The weather will be fairly calm for the next couple of days.  Can't complain about calm weather - not after our 6-10" of rain over the last couple of weeks.  
.
The next widespread rain event arrives on Saturday night and will continue into Sunday night.  Rainfall totals of 0.40-0.80" appear likely.  Severe weather is not anticipated - a rumble of thunder will be possible.
.
The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday through Sunday night)

There will be a 100% chance of 0.10-0.25" of rain falling - excellent or near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.25-0.50" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance

There will be a 50% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a low chance of occurring - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.50-2.00"+ of rain falling - a very low chance of occurring - a one out of ten chance
.
There could be some rain showers - especially over the eastern half of the region on Monday.  Then questions remain on what happens Monday afternoon into Monday night/Tuesday.
.
The American models are likely moving the system through our region too fast.  Discounting those for now - the southeast ridge is strong.  The European models seem to have a better grasp on the potential for the system to slow down a bit on Sunday/Sunday night.  Thus potentially extending our rain chances a bit longer.
.
Another storm system may impact the region on Monday night and Tuesday (low confidence on whether this unfolds or not).  See the long term discussion for this event (bottom of the page).
.
Precipitation maps for tomorrow through Sunday - see time stamps at the top of each graphic.
.

.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 


-----------------------------

.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.

 


.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.


.
.
Snow is not in our local forecast through Saturday.

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.

.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

.
Don't forget we have winter weather precipitation type radar, as well

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
--- 
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
---
.




Date Range:  December 1st - December 11th
Event:  Mostly below normal temperatures.  Active pattern.
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details:  Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.  Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium

.

Date Range:  December 3rd - December 5th
Event:  Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.  Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Precipitation - most likely rain
Details:  Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast:  Very high
.
.
Date Range:  December 5th - December 6th
Event:  Precipitation event
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation
Details:  Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night.  If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday.  It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


.
Date Range:  December 11th - December 18th
Event:  Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  One or two precipitation events possible
Details:  Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures.  A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.  Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecastMedium
.
.
Date Range:  December 17th - December 21st
Event:  Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk:  Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecastLow 
.

.
Date Range:  December 27th-30th
Event:  Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low

.
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

-----------------------------  
.
1.  The most interesting topic for the long range is what happens on Monday night and Tuesday.  I will be watching a storm system pull out of the southern United States along a frontal system that will find itself draped across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
.
As the cold front pushes through our region on Sunday night it will usher in colder temperatures.  The front will then slow its progress eastward as at least one or two waves move up along it.  Each wave could bring additional precipitation chances into our region.
.
The biggest questions are
.
1.  Where does the front stall out.  Will it stall out close enough to our region to impact the arrival of the colder temperatures - will it stall out close enough to keep precipitation chances going into Tuesday.
2.  If a wave of low pressure does move along the front then how far west/northwest will the precipitation spread and what form would the precipitation take.  
3.  Temperature profiles on Monday night and Tuesday - if precipitation does form then would it be warm enough for all rain or cold enough for a mixture of precipitation types.
.
These are questions that will have to be answered over the next few days.  For precipitation to move back into our region late on Monday into Tuesday then we have to assume a wave does move up along the front.  And this is not for certain.
.
The general trend over the last few days have been to develop a decent wave along the stalled out front - if true then this will spread more precipitation back into our region on Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday.  
.
Bottom line...
.
Right now the confidence in this system is low.  But well worth watching. 
.
Trends over the next day or two will be important in determining which direction the forecast may take for Monday night and Tuesday.   At least us winter weather fans have something to monitor.  
.
Potential doesn't always make reality in the weather world.  Many snow lover dreams end up crashing on the rocky shores of reality.  Especially true in our region!
.
Another precipitation event is possible around the 10th or 11th of December with very cold temperatures to follow.
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.


.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.

All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.


.

November 29th - 30th: Colder weather has arrived!

November 29th and 30th, 2011

.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.



.
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.


Tuesday night:  Flood warnings for some counties along the Ohio River - see River and Lake Stages for more details - click here.  Precipitation will come to an end this evening.  Some clouds and colder.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 20s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  North winds at 10-15 mph early  
Precipitation probability - 10%   | Rainfall totals:  0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday:  Mostly sunny - some morning fog possible.    
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 40-44 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

.
Wednesday night:  Mostly clear and cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 20s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Thursday:  Mostly sunny cool.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 45-48 degrees  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.   
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
.


.


No major concerns.  Can't rule out some fog during the morning hours.  Some slick spots if moisture is left on roadways - in the counties that experienced heavy snow earlier this morning.

.
Flood warnings have been issued for the Ohio River - click here for more details - then zoom down to your local area.
.


.
No

.

No wild cards in this forecast.
.

.
.
Tweaked temperatures a little.


.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

---
---- 
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
.
Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Frozen precipitation will end early Tuesday evening.
Tuesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Wednesday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.


.
To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.

.
.
HEADLINE:
The areas first snow caused travel headaches in a few of our counties this morning.  The most widespread and heaviest snow was across western Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and southeast Missouri.  Anywhere from 1-4" of snow fell in these areas.
.
A second band of heavy snow fell across parts of far southern Illinois into far western Kentucky.  1-4 inches of snow was common in these areas.  Thundersnow was event reported in the heaviest band of snow.  Vienna, IL - Joppa, IL and Ballard County, Kentucky reported lightning and thunder.  A few other reports of thundersnow were received from far southwest Kentucky and southeast Missouri.
.
Once again banding was the main culprit for the heavy snow amounts - that and temperatures that fell into the lower 30s as the snow fell.  I mentioned in the blog over the last several days that snow banding would be possible and this could cause some heavier totals. 
.
I measured 1/2" of snow here at my place in central Massac County - parts of western Massac County picked up 2-3" of the white gold.  Portions of Ballard County reported 2-4" of snow.  The heaviest snowfall reports were from the South Fulton area where 4-6" of snow fell.
.
The snow here at my place had melted by noon.
.
The next few days will bring cold weather with below normal temperatures.  No precipitation is expected in the short term forecast.  Lows will be in the 20s - brrr mornings.
.
Note that the Ohio River is approaching or exceeding flood levels in some counties.  Click here for more information.
.
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

-----------------------------

.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.

 

.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.


.
.
Snow will end by Tuesday evening - no additional snow is in the forecast tonight into Thursday.  

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.

.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
--- 
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
---
.
Date Range:  November 27th -November 31st
Event:  Below to
much below normal temperatures.  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm. 
Confidence in my forecastHigh on the cold

.
.

Date Range:  December 1st - December 11th
Event:  Mostly below normal temperatures.  Active pattern.
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation around the 4th/5th - likely rain
Details:  Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. 
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
.

.
.

Date Range:  December 4th - December 5th
Event:  Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation - likely rain
Details:  Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.50" range
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium

.
Date Range:  December 11th - December 18th
Event:  Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  One or two precipitation events possible - likely around the 8th or 9th and 11th/12th
Details:  Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures.  A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecastLow
.
.
Date Range:  December 17th - December 21st
Event:  Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk:  Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecastLow 
.

.
Date Range:  December 27th-30th
Event:  Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

-----------------------------  
.
1.  No major changes in the long range forecast.  Colder weather has arrived.  
.
The next precipitation event will be Sunday into Monday - perhaps starting as early as Saturday night.  Most likely this will be rain - however, there could be a rain/snow mix.  Will monitor and update in the coming days.
.
Sunday's precipitation map
.
.
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.


.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.

All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.


.

November 28th and 29th: Chilly with more precipitation in the forecast

November 28th and 29th, 2011

.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.



.
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.


Monday night:  Windy at times - cold - raw.  Rain or a mixture of rain/snow/sleet.  Some slushy accumulation possible in some areas. Heaviest accumulation most likely over the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee/eastern Arkansas.  
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  North winds at 10-20 mph - gusty.
Precipitation probability - 100%   | Rainfall totals:  0.20-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Tuesday:   Cold rain or a mixture of rain/sleet/snow.  Thundersnow in the heaviest bands.  Heavier bands of snow will produce 1-2" of snow per hour rates.  This will cause traffic problems in some counties.    
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 37-40 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 100%  Rainfall totals:   0.20-0.40" 
Confidence in this forecast is high

.
Tuesday night:   Mostly cloudy skies.  Cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle 20s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind:  Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Wednesday:  A few clouds - cool.

Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 44 degrees  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph.   
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
.


.


Rain again tonight and Tuesday - some counties will see the rain mix with or change to snow.  Can't rule out some slushy accumulations - especially if a band or two of heavier snow forms.  Some areas will remain mostly rain.
.


.
Other than the chance for some slushy accumulation of snow - some roads will become slick and hazardous..

.

The obvious wild card in this forecast is where and when rain changes to snow over our region.  Difficult forecast and it is not clear cut.  Some areas will remain all rain while others will change to snow - a wet snow.  Slushy accumulation not out of the question.  Use caution in the heavier snow bands.
.

.
.
Tweaked precipitation type.


.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

---
---- 
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
.
Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A mix of snow and sleet possible in some of our counties.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Some snow or sleet likely in some of our counties..
Tuesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Tuesday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.


.
To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.

.
.
HEADLINE: 
Rain rain rain - can't seem to shake the rain.  Rain will continue into tonight and Tuesday as the upper level low moves through our region.  Don't be surprised to see some bands of heavier snow in a few counties.  The exact placement of that snow is in question.  Keep that in mind as the evenings weather unfolds.  There will be some snow in our region.
.
Rain and snow will come to an end on Tuesday afternoon as the storm finally pulls away.
.
Can't rule out some heavy wet snow in some counties - several inches of snow may occur - especially over the Missouri Bootheel, eastern Arkansas, and western Tennessee.  But the bands could extend further north into the rest of the area. In the heaviest bands of snow you can expect 2-4" of snow.
.
Colder weather for the rest of the week - lows down into the 20s.  A bit on the cold side.
.
The next storm system will move into the region on Sunday into Monday.  A bit too far off to make a call on rainfall totals with that system and/or if there might be some wintry mix included.
.
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

-----------------------------

.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
..

 


.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.


.
.
Can't rule out some snow mixed with the rain at times.  Slushy accumulation will be possible in counties that switch over to all snow.  Would not be surprised to see several inches fall over parts of the region - wet snow.

.
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.

.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
--- 
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
---
.
Date Range:  November 27th -November 31st
Event:  Below to
much below normal temperatures.  Can't rule out some mixed precipitation.
Severe Risk:  None
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details:  Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm. 
Confidence in my forecastHigh on the cold

.
.
Date Range:  December 1st - December 11th
Event:  Mostly below normal temperatures.  Active pattern.
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation around the 3rd/5th
Details:  Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.  Possible precip around the 3rd/5th - rain or a mix.  Too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
.
.
Date Range:  December 12th - December 18th
Event:  Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  One or two precipitation events possible
Details:  Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures.  A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecastLow
.
.
Date Range:  December 16th - December 22nd
Event:  Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk:  Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecastLow 
.

.
Date Range:  December 27th-30th
Event:  Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

-----------------------------  
.
1.  No major changes made in the extended forecast.
.
.
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.


.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.

All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.


.