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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Wind: Calm winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Rain arrives Saturday night into Tuesday - see below discussions.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Click Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Mostly clear and cold. Fog possible in some areas - possibly dense fog near rivers and lakes. Fog could cause slick spots.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Calm winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Mostly sunny skies - a few clouds possible from time to time. Not as cold.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 50 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: An increase in clouds possible. Dry.
Below normal temperatures.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: East winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: East winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds.
Highs: around 54 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Rain arrives Saturday night into Tuesday - see below discussions.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Well - it was cold this morning! Some of the coldest air of the season, thus far, invaded the region with temperatures in the upper teens in a few counties to middle 20s elsewhere. Parts of west Kentucky recorded lower 20s. Brrrr weather!
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Remember that flood warnings have been issued along the Ohio River. You can view the updated river forecasts by clicking here.
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Friday will bring calm weather - Saturday, as well. Changes arrive on Saturday night into Sunday.
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Our next weather maker is already on the map. This system will spread rain into the region on Saturday night and this rain will continue on/off into Monday and perhaps Tuesday. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain will be possible on Monday night and Tuesday. See the long range discussion for that part of the forecast.
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How about rainfall totals? Remember we are going to start using probabilities (don't let that word scare you off) for rainfall and snowfall forecasts. This will give you a better idea of the over/under potential. In other words - the chances for you to pick up more or less than expected.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Monday). I will update these numbers on Friday. Keep in mind that additional precipitation may fall from Monday night into Tuesday night.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.20-0.40" of rain falling - excellent or near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.40-0.80" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.80-1.25" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.25-1.50" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 1.50-2.00"+ of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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Check out the updated 5 day rainfall - lot of rain is coming to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This is a concern because rivers are on the rise. Rivers will continue to rise over the next two week period - if you live along the river or have river interest then watch for updated forecasts.
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HEADLINE: Well - it was cold this morning! Some of the coldest air of the season, thus far, invaded the region with temperatures in the upper teens in a few counties to middle 20s elsewhere. Parts of west Kentucky recorded lower 20s. Brrrr weather!
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Remember that flood warnings have been issued along the Ohio River. You can view the updated river forecasts by clicking here.
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Friday will bring calm weather - Saturday, as well. Changes arrive on Saturday night into Sunday.
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Our next weather maker is already on the map. This system will spread rain into the region on Saturday night and this rain will continue on/off into Monday and perhaps Tuesday. A mix of snow, sleet, and rain will be possible on Monday night and Tuesday. See the long range discussion for that part of the forecast.
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How about rainfall totals? Remember we are going to start using probabilities (don't let that word scare you off) for rainfall and snowfall forecasts. This will give you a better idea of the over/under potential. In other words - the chances for you to pick up more or less than expected.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Monday). I will update these numbers on Friday. Keep in mind that additional precipitation may fall from Monday night into Tuesday night.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.20-0.40" of rain falling - excellent or near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.40-0.80" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.80-1.25" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.25-1.50" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 1.50-2.00"+ of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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Check out the updated 5 day rainfall - lot of rain is coming to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This is a concern because rivers are on the rise. Rivers will continue to rise over the next two week period - if you live along the river or have river interest then watch for updated forecasts.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in our forecast through Sunday.
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Snow is not in our forecast through Sunday.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Several chances for precipitation during this time frame.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely - rainfall totals in the 0.40-0.80" range
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 5th - December 7th
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation
Details: Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night. If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday. It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 17th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
. Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation
Details: Southern wave moves up along the front that pushes through on Sunday and Sunday night. If this wave is far enough north then additional precipitation chances may occur on Monday night and Tuesday. It may be cold enough to produce frozen precipitation - confidence in this scenario is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 17th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Welcome to meteorological winter! Meteorological winter runs from December 1st through the end of February. This is the time frame that meteorologists consider winter.
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December looks to bring some interesting weather to our region. We will monitor the chances for rain/snow mix on Monday afternoon into Tuesday night - perhaps Wednesday. A little soon to make a definite call on this subject. A lot of the model data does not agree. However, I still like the general idea of a slower system than the American models are forecasting (as a matter of fact - they have slowed some in their latest runs - which gives me even more confidence).
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The big question is still the timing of the colder air on Monday into Tuesday and the placement of additional precipitation moving up from the southwest and south. Watch for more details on Friday.
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Another shot at cold air next week - followed by an even colder shot towards next weekend and the week after. I told you that December would be cold - that still appears to be on track.
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Several precipitation events will be possible over the next two weeks. Would not be surprised if some of these end up of the frozen variety. Stay tuned!
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December looks to bring some interesting weather to our region. We will monitor the chances for rain/snow mix on Monday afternoon into Tuesday night - perhaps Wednesday. A little soon to make a definite call on this subject. A lot of the model data does not agree. However, I still like the general idea of a slower system than the American models are forecasting (as a matter of fact - they have slowed some in their latest runs - which gives me even more confidence).
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The big question is still the timing of the colder air on Monday into Tuesday and the placement of additional precipitation moving up from the southwest and south. Watch for more details on Friday.
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Another shot at cold air next week - followed by an even colder shot towards next weekend and the week after. I told you that December would be cold - that still appears to be on track.
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Several precipitation events will be possible over the next two weeks. Would not be surprised if some of these end up of the frozen variety. Stay tuned!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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