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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Some clearing and colder.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Westerly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: A mix of clouds and sun.
Near normal to above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 48 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Near normal to above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Some clouds and sun. Sun more likely central and northern counties - clouds more likely southern counties
Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 48-52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and happy holidays - I hope that everyone has a safe weekend!
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The region experienced a lot of thick clouds today (Friday). Some drizzle and flurries were also reported with waking up temperatures in the 30s. Another dreary day for the most part. One of many over the past few months (I know we would all appreciate the sun - if it would just make an appearance)
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The big story over the next few days will be the potential of a storm system on Monday into Tuesday - moving in from the south/southwest. Yes - this is the storm we have been talking about for weeks. It has been tricky to forecast the different lobes of energy coming out of the southwest United States. None of the models have handled it properly. This is mostly because models don't handle this type of fast/split flow very well.
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My biggest forecast challenge has been where to place the upper level features on the storm - how far south or north to bring/place precipitation chances and WHEN to introduce precipitation chances.
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I can't say that today's data is much more help than yesterdays. I am confident that Saturday and Sunday will remain dry.
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Then the next question(s) would be
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1. Timing of the precipitation. Right now it appears precipitation chances will go up as we move into Monday and Monday night
2. Questions then center around precipitation type - will it be cold enough to snow? Or more likely will there be a mixed bag potential at the onset of the precipitation and will it then turn to all rain
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First things first - Christmas Eve and Christmas Day...
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Christmas Eve into Christmas Day will bring a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds are more likely over the southern half of the region on both days. With all of the low level moisture and recent precipitation I can't rule out some fog developing during the overnight hours. I should also say that it is hard to move clouds out in this type of atmosphere (today's low clouds have been slow to dissipate). I guess the wild card (for Saturday and Sunday) would be if clouds linger longer than forecast. Also with a developing storm system on Sunday to our south - clouds will be making an attempt to move back into the area on Sunday into Sunday night.
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Bottom line - there should not be any travel problems on Saturday or Sunday - outside of any fog that might develop in our immediate local area.
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Now - back to the next storm system (Monday/Tuesday)
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It appears that a broad area of precipitation will likely develop to our south on Sunday night and Monday - spreading north and east on Monday/Monday night. Temperatures in our region may not be cold enough to support snow/mix - but it could be close.
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Current guidance indicates that some snow will fall along and under the 850 mb low - still a bit early to know exactly where it will track.
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Soundings indicate that enough warm air may move into the area that this would be mostly a rain event. Starting perhaps as a mixture of sleet and snow and then turning to rain. Part of this will depend on the exact placement of the upper level features and timing of the precipitation. If precipitation moves in later on Monday then we will have warmed up a few degrees vs earlier in the day/morning hours.
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Bottom line...
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A precipitation event is likely on Monday into Tuesday
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Uncertainties surround precipitation type and amounts.
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Timing of the precipitation is also a bit in question - I am leaning more towards Monday into Monday night vs earlier. Will monitor for any changes in speed and track and update accordingly.
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Rainfall totals from the event should be in the 0.10-0.50" range - this again will be dependent on the exact track of the area of low pressure and upper level features. Will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.
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Here are some broad-brushed maps showing the precipitation types and chances - keep in mind that this could change if the track of the storm moves north or south - but you can get the general idea from these maps - time stamps at the top of the maps
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and happy holidays - I hope that everyone has a safe weekend!
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The region experienced a lot of thick clouds today (Friday). Some drizzle and flurries were also reported with waking up temperatures in the 30s. Another dreary day for the most part. One of many over the past few months (I know we would all appreciate the sun - if it would just make an appearance)
.
The big story over the next few days will be the potential of a storm system on Monday into Tuesday - moving in from the south/southwest. Yes - this is the storm we have been talking about for weeks. It has been tricky to forecast the different lobes of energy coming out of the southwest United States. None of the models have handled it properly. This is mostly because models don't handle this type of fast/split flow very well.
.
My biggest forecast challenge has been where to place the upper level features on the storm - how far south or north to bring/place precipitation chances and WHEN to introduce precipitation chances.
.
I can't say that today's data is much more help than yesterdays. I am confident that Saturday and Sunday will remain dry.
.
Then the next question(s) would be
.
1. Timing of the precipitation. Right now it appears precipitation chances will go up as we move into Monday and Monday night
2. Questions then center around precipitation type - will it be cold enough to snow? Or more likely will there be a mixed bag potential at the onset of the precipitation and will it then turn to all rain
.
.
First things first - Christmas Eve and Christmas Day...
.
Christmas Eve into Christmas Day will bring a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds are more likely over the southern half of the region on both days. With all of the low level moisture and recent precipitation I can't rule out some fog developing during the overnight hours. I should also say that it is hard to move clouds out in this type of atmosphere (today's low clouds have been slow to dissipate). I guess the wild card (for Saturday and Sunday) would be if clouds linger longer than forecast. Also with a developing storm system on Sunday to our south - clouds will be making an attempt to move back into the area on Sunday into Sunday night.
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Bottom line - there should not be any travel problems on Saturday or Sunday - outside of any fog that might develop in our immediate local area.
.
Now - back to the next storm system (Monday/Tuesday)
.
It appears that a broad area of precipitation will likely develop to our south on Sunday night and Monday - spreading north and east on Monday/Monday night. Temperatures in our region may not be cold enough to support snow/mix - but it could be close.
.
Current guidance indicates that some snow will fall along and under the 850 mb low - still a bit early to know exactly where it will track.
.
Soundings indicate that enough warm air may move into the area that this would be mostly a rain event. Starting perhaps as a mixture of sleet and snow and then turning to rain. Part of this will depend on the exact placement of the upper level features and timing of the precipitation. If precipitation moves in later on Monday then we will have warmed up a few degrees vs earlier in the day/morning hours.
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Bottom line...
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A precipitation event is likely on Monday into Tuesday
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Uncertainties surround precipitation type and amounts.
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Timing of the precipitation is also a bit in question - I am leaning more towards Monday into Monday night vs earlier. Will monitor for any changes in speed and track and update accordingly.
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Rainfall totals from the event should be in the 0.10-0.50" range - this again will be dependent on the exact track of the area of low pressure and upper level features. Will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.
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Here are some broad-brushed maps showing the precipitation types and chances - keep in mind that this could change if the track of the storm moves north or south - but you can get the general idea from these maps - time stamps at the top of the maps
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in the short range forecast (tonight through Sunday)
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No snow in the short range forecast (tonight through Sunday)
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Long range discussion above - nothing more to add :) - see above
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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