.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms early - then a chance for light rain, fog, and drizzle after midnight.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: Mostly steady temperatures | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.05-0.15" in most areas - a few pockets of heavier precipitation possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday: Clouds - some early morning fog or drizzle possible.
Near normal temperatures.
Highs: Steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Near normal temperatures.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph - gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"-0.05"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy skies - chance for showers late
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s to lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% late | Rainfall totals: 0.05"-0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% late | Rainfall totals: 0.05"-0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Thursday: Clouds. Showers likely.
Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 46 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.40" - heavier amounts likely south and east.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder is possible.
.
.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder is possible.
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.
.
.
HEADLINE: Another cloudy and rainy day across our region. Light rain - fog - drizzle covered much of the area as of this writing - Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation will continue on/off into tonight.
.
The clouds will linger into Wednesday morning - along with a few patches of light rain and drizzle. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms before midnight tonight (Tuesday night) - then more of a patchy rain - drizzle - fog after midnight.
.
Wednesday will bring a mix of sun and clouds as the current storm system pulls away. Don't put away the umbrellas just yet - another storm is already on the way.
.
Clouds will once again increase on Wednesday night as a storm system moves in from the south. Showers will spread back into the region late Wednesday night and especially on Thursday. Rain is not expected to be heavy in our local counties - a bit heavier rain is likely south and east of our local counties.
.
Rainfall amounts with the Thursday storm system should be in the 0.20-0.40" range with pockets of heavier over Kentucky and Tennessee. Will fine tune amounts tomorrow.
.
Severe weather or winter weather is not expected through Friday. Friday night into Saturday will bring a chance for rain and/or snow to the region - it is forecast to be light.
.
The next BIG question arrives on Saturday into Monday...
.
Some light rain or snow is possible on both Friday night into Saturday as some weak disturbances move through the fast flow. Will need to monitor and see if this precipitation will amount to anything - it appears it would be on the light side.
.
Another southern storm is showing up on some of the model data for Sunday into Monday - there are HUGE differences in the model data. Confidence in any one given solution is low. I have been talking about this system for over 8 weeks now! The potential at least. Growing closer to the crunch time to see if it actually happens.
.
The EC model - my favorite model for this time of the year - shows rain and snow spreading in from the south during the Saturday night into Sunday night time frame. The GFS model - shows absolutely nothing. The Canadian model shows a chance for precipitation but perhaps a bit later than the EC.
.
A white Christmas is still possible if the slower EC and GEM solutions verify with moisture spreading in from the south during Saturday night into Sunday night - still too early to make a confident call on this subject. I know there are a range of opinions on this subject. No two forecasters agree on the outcome - this is because confidence in model solutions are non-existent.
.
The timing of the different disturbances moving through this fast flow will determine whether a stronger storm system - winter storm - develops on Saturday and Sunday along the Gulf Coast and southern Unites States - moving into the Tennessee Valley and perhaps as far north as some of our counties.
.
My thoughts are that the EC is likely going to be more correct than the GFS. Almost all of the data shows the two disturbances moving through the jet stream - it is the handling of the phase that is in question. Winter storms are tricky and so is the phasing of the jet streams. Your timing has to be right on the money in order to verify a forecast outcome. Uncertainties remain today on how this unfolds.
.
The GFS model has been HORRIBLE at handling the different shortwaves as they move through the fast northern and southern jet flow - not saying it can't be right but more often than not it has been flat out wrong over the past few weeks.
.
Bottom line...
.
Some rain or snow is possible as early as Friday night and Saturday morning - then another system on Saturday night into Sunday night will need to be monitored.
.
A storm system may develop to our west and south on Saturday into Sunday - this system will spread moisture northward into Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
.
Temperatures in our region may be cold enough for an all snow event if this system does indeed develop. The low would likely track to our south and east keeping us on the cold side of the storm.
.
Still a ton of questions to be answered on this possible system - I know many are calling for a dry weekend - but I wouldn't bet on that - at least not just yet. Still several days to monitor.
The chance for a white Christmas remains at 20% today - up from 10% a few days ago - but not ready to go with 30% just yet.
Stay tuned!!!!
.
Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
.
HEADLINE: Another cloudy and rainy day across our region. Light rain - fog - drizzle covered much of the area as of this writing - Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation will continue on/off into tonight.
.
The clouds will linger into Wednesday morning - along with a few patches of light rain and drizzle. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms before midnight tonight (Tuesday night) - then more of a patchy rain - drizzle - fog after midnight.
.
Wednesday will bring a mix of sun and clouds as the current storm system pulls away. Don't put away the umbrellas just yet - another storm is already on the way.
.
Clouds will once again increase on Wednesday night as a storm system moves in from the south. Showers will spread back into the region late Wednesday night and especially on Thursday. Rain is not expected to be heavy in our local counties - a bit heavier rain is likely south and east of our local counties.
.
Rainfall amounts with the Thursday storm system should be in the 0.20-0.40" range with pockets of heavier over Kentucky and Tennessee. Will fine tune amounts tomorrow.
.
Severe weather or winter weather is not expected through Friday. Friday night into Saturday will bring a chance for rain and/or snow to the region - it is forecast to be light.
.
The next BIG question arrives on Saturday into Monday...
.
Some light rain or snow is possible on both Friday night into Saturday as some weak disturbances move through the fast flow. Will need to monitor and see if this precipitation will amount to anything - it appears it would be on the light side.
.
Another southern storm is showing up on some of the model data for Sunday into Monday - there are HUGE differences in the model data. Confidence in any one given solution is low. I have been talking about this system for over 8 weeks now! The potential at least. Growing closer to the crunch time to see if it actually happens.
.
The EC model - my favorite model for this time of the year - shows rain and snow spreading in from the south during the Saturday night into Sunday night time frame. The GFS model - shows absolutely nothing. The Canadian model shows a chance for precipitation but perhaps a bit later than the EC.
.
A white Christmas is still possible if the slower EC and GEM solutions verify with moisture spreading in from the south during Saturday night into Sunday night - still too early to make a confident call on this subject. I know there are a range of opinions on this subject. No two forecasters agree on the outcome - this is because confidence in model solutions are non-existent.
.
The timing of the different disturbances moving through this fast flow will determine whether a stronger storm system - winter storm - develops on Saturday and Sunday along the Gulf Coast and southern Unites States - moving into the Tennessee Valley and perhaps as far north as some of our counties.
.
My thoughts are that the EC is likely going to be more correct than the GFS. Almost all of the data shows the two disturbances moving through the jet stream - it is the handling of the phase that is in question. Winter storms are tricky and so is the phasing of the jet streams. Your timing has to be right on the money in order to verify a forecast outcome. Uncertainties remain today on how this unfolds.
.
The GFS model has been HORRIBLE at handling the different shortwaves as they move through the fast northern and southern jet flow - not saying it can't be right but more often than not it has been flat out wrong over the past few weeks.
.
Bottom line...
.
Some rain or snow is possible as early as Friday night and Saturday morning - then another system on Saturday night into Sunday night will need to be monitored.
.
A storm system may develop to our west and south on Saturday into Sunday - this system will spread moisture northward into Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
.
Temperatures in our region may be cold enough for an all snow event if this system does indeed develop. The low would likely track to our south and east keeping us on the cold side of the storm.
.
Still a ton of questions to be answered on this possible system - I know many are calling for a dry weekend - but I wouldn't bet on that - at least not just yet. Still several days to monitor.
The chance for a white Christmas remains at 20% today - up from 10% a few days ago - but not ready to go with 30% just yet.
Stay tuned!!!!
.
Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
.
.
No snow in our short range forecast...
.
Some snow is possible Friday night into Sunday night (see discussions above)
.
No snow in our short range forecast...
.
Some snow is possible Friday night into Sunday night (see discussions above)
.
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
.
.
---
.
Date Range: December 18th - December 24th
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday/Friday
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
.
.
Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley - more below normal temperatures days vs above normal days.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
.
Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
.
Date Range: December 18th - December 24th
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday/Friday
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
.
.
Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley - more below normal temperatures days vs above normal days.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
.
Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
.
-----------------------------
.
1. The focus of the long range will be on Christmas weekend - see the discussion above for more details on that subject.
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment