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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Increasingly cloudy.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph becoming northerly at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Cloudy with a chance for rain late in the day. The later in the day - the better the chance for rain. Rain could be mixed with some sleet over southeast Missouri. Less likely elsewhere. Rain is more likely the further south and west you travel in the region - starting first in southern Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel - spreading north and east.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: In the 30s most areas - some 40s possible over west KY. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Winds turning to the east at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% LATE in the day | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Rain and chilly. Rain may mix with or turn to snow over far western counties of southeast Missouri and northwest counties in southern Illinois.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Wind: East winds at 5-10 mph becoming northerly late
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.50" locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: East winds at 5-10 mph becoming northerly late
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.50" locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Cold and raw. Rain. Rain mixing with or turning to snow over southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky, southwest Indiana. Some light accumulation not out of the question - although ground temps will be warm and wet.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 36 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph eventually turning to the west
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" -0.30"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Main concern for most of the area will be the chance for some snow on Monday night or Tuesday - first over western areas and then spreading east. Depending on the exact storm track there could be a dusting of snow to even an inch or two in some areas. If banding occurs locally higher amounts will be possible. See the probabilities below.
Monitor updated forecasts if you have travel concerns.
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The wild card in this forecast will be whether rain turns to snow over the area on Monday night and Tuesday - first over western areas and then spreading east.
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Slowed onset of precipitation on Monday - pushed it back a few hours towards the late afternoon/evening hours
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow is possible over the western portions of the region - rain turning to snow. Eventually spreading east.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow is possible on Tuesday in the region.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Merry Christmas to all of my friends and fellow weather enthusiasts! Hope you are enjoying your weekend and holiday off-time.
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Our next weather system is taking aim on the region. Clouds will increase on Sunday night and Monday - we will start to watch the radars fill in on Monday afternoon. Rain will spread first across Arkansas and Tennessee and then into Missouri. Eventually the rain will spread into Illinois and Kentucky - Indiana.
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Depending on the timing of the rain - there could be a little bit of a mix of sleet and freezing rain over parts of southeast Missouri - the high hill country areas could see that linger a bit longer.
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Monday high temperature map - after starting the 20s/30s during the morning
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The rest of the area - precipitation should be mostly rain on Monday afternoon or evening.
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Colder air will start to move into the area on Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will slowly change the rain over to snow. Snow will begin over southeast Missouri first and then parts of southern Illinois - eventually spreading into southwest Indiana and Kentucky.
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There continue to be model differences on the exact track of the weak 850 mb low and the main surface low.
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I am NOT a big fan of rain ending as snow events. They typically do not perform well with producing much in the way of snowfall accumulations. Temperatures will be marginal on Tuesday for snow to stick and/or fall. The ground will also be quite wet.
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Rain ending as snow events tend to be brief periods of snow (see future cast radar images below). However, with that said - there are still some questions on exactly when the rain might change to snow on Tuesday. If it changes earlier then there would be a better shot at a little bit of accumulation - this might be especially true over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - further west and north you travel. Also a pocket of colder air has been showing up over part of Kentucky and Tennessee.
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I make no solid forecast promises, at this point, on accumulations - you can read the probability forecast below and see what I believe is most likely.
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Let's take a look at the broad-brushed precipitation maps - keep in mind that on Monday the precipitation probably won't arrive until later in the day and evening. Time stamps are at the top of the maps - this first one ends at 7 pm on Monday!
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Now let's break that down into the future cast radar images - again this gives you a rough idea of how precipitation will move into and out of the region. There could be some small timing differences in how it unfolds. The time stamps are in Zulu time - example 12z would be around the 6-8 am time frame - 18z would be around the 12-2 pm time frame - 0z would be around the 6-8 pm time frame - so on.
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Click images for REAL VIEW size - these images are from my favorite source for weather model data - www.wright-weather.com
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First image is 0z Tuesday night which is around 5-7 pm MONDAY NIGHT
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Second image is from 3z Tuesday which is around 8-10 pm MONDAY NIGHT - you can see the rain advancing into our region (represented by the GREEN radar returns - the yellow are heavier returns)
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Third image is from around 11 pm Monday night to 1 am Tuesday morning - precipitation covering our region
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Fourth image below is for around 2-4 am on Tuesday morning - NOW you see some white back in Missouri where the rain has changed to snow. Again a rough idea from the NAM model.
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This image is for around Tuesday morning - sunrise. You can see rain and snow in the region - rain is MOVING OUT as the colder air moves in with the snow at the very end of the system. Typically you do not get much snow out of this type of set-up. We will see how it goes. No solid forecast promises.
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This next image is for around 9 am on Tuesday morning - again you can see some snow at the back end of the storm pushing east through the area - still mostly rain over Indiana and Kentucky. Very thin band of snow at the end of the storm.
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This next image is from around 11 am - 1 pm on Tuesday morning/afternoon
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How about amounts?
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Right now it appears that the ground temperatures are in the 40s and will be wet once the snow arrives. This will hamper the potential for accumulation. Also the precipitation will be ENDING as the cold air filters into the area.
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If accumulations occur then they should be light. The one caveat to this forecast would be the potential for some banding (where have we heard that before). As you know - banding can cause big forecast headaches in our region. Many events over the last few years produced pockets of heavier snow-bands which caused forecast failures. In order to deal with this I will be using the probability scale. This will give you a rough idea of the over/under potential of a snow event.
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Let's all keep in mind that this is MOSTLY a RAIN event for our local counties - this is not a classic snowstorm for our region. Had we had more cold air in the region then we would be talking about a significant snowstorm. That just is not the case this time around. Disappointing? For some of us!
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Probabilities for rainfall totals - Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday afternoon - entire event
There will be a 100% chance of 0.10-0.20" of rain falling - certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.30-0.40" of rain falling - high chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 0.40-0.60" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 0.60-1.00" of rain falling - a chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.00-2.00" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
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Probabilities for SNOWFALL totals - Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday afternoon - entire event for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee
There will be a 60% chance of a dusting (less than one inch) of snow falling - good chance - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 1"-2" of snow falling - chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 2"-3" of snow falling - low chance of occurring- a two out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 3"-4" of snow falling - a chance of occurring - a one in ten chance
There will be a 5% chance of more than 4" of snow falling in snow banding
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What could go wrong in this forecast?
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1. Cold air could move in faster than expected - changing the rain to snow a bit sooner.
2. The track of the upper level features is still uncertain - this will be key on placing the snow band that does fall in the region
3. Ground temperatures - wet ground will slow snow accumulation.
4. The precipitation is coming to AN END when the cold air arrives. This diminishes the chances for significant snow.
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Again KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT - it will END as snow - the questions center on timing of change over to snow and whether anything can stick.
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I will update the blog late tonight or Monday morning if there are significant changes in the data or forecast thoughts concerning this storm system.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: Merry Christmas to all of my friends and fellow weather enthusiasts! Hope you are enjoying your weekend and holiday off-time.
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Our next weather system is taking aim on the region. Clouds will increase on Sunday night and Monday - we will start to watch the radars fill in on Monday afternoon. Rain will spread first across Arkansas and Tennessee and then into Missouri. Eventually the rain will spread into Illinois and Kentucky - Indiana.
.
Depending on the timing of the rain - there could be a little bit of a mix of sleet and freezing rain over parts of southeast Missouri - the high hill country areas could see that linger a bit longer.
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Monday high temperature map - after starting the 20s/30s during the morning
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The rest of the area - precipitation should be mostly rain on Monday afternoon or evening.
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Colder air will start to move into the area on Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will slowly change the rain over to snow. Snow will begin over southeast Missouri first and then parts of southern Illinois - eventually spreading into southwest Indiana and Kentucky.
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There continue to be model differences on the exact track of the weak 850 mb low and the main surface low.
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I am NOT a big fan of rain ending as snow events. They typically do not perform well with producing much in the way of snowfall accumulations. Temperatures will be marginal on Tuesday for snow to stick and/or fall. The ground will also be quite wet.
.
Rain ending as snow events tend to be brief periods of snow (see future cast radar images below). However, with that said - there are still some questions on exactly when the rain might change to snow on Tuesday. If it changes earlier then there would be a better shot at a little bit of accumulation - this might be especially true over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - further west and north you travel. Also a pocket of colder air has been showing up over part of Kentucky and Tennessee.
.
I make no solid forecast promises, at this point, on accumulations - you can read the probability forecast below and see what I believe is most likely.
.
Let's take a look at the broad-brushed precipitation maps - keep in mind that on Monday the precipitation probably won't arrive until later in the day and evening. Time stamps are at the top of the maps - this first one ends at 7 pm on Monday!
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Now let's break that down into the future cast radar images - again this gives you a rough idea of how precipitation will move into and out of the region. There could be some small timing differences in how it unfolds. The time stamps are in Zulu time - example 12z would be around the 6-8 am time frame - 18z would be around the 12-2 pm time frame - 0z would be around the 6-8 pm time frame - so on.
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Click images for REAL VIEW size - these images are from my favorite source for weather model data - www.wright-weather.com
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First image is 0z Tuesday night which is around 5-7 pm MONDAY NIGHT
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Second image is from 3z Tuesday which is around 8-10 pm MONDAY NIGHT - you can see the rain advancing into our region (represented by the GREEN radar returns - the yellow are heavier returns)
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Third image is from around 11 pm Monday night to 1 am Tuesday morning - precipitation covering our region
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Fourth image below is for around 2-4 am on Tuesday morning - NOW you see some white back in Missouri where the rain has changed to snow. Again a rough idea from the NAM model.
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This image is for around Tuesday morning - sunrise. You can see rain and snow in the region - rain is MOVING OUT as the colder air moves in with the snow at the very end of the system. Typically you do not get much snow out of this type of set-up. We will see how it goes. No solid forecast promises.
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This next image is for around 9 am on Tuesday morning - again you can see some snow at the back end of the storm pushing east through the area - still mostly rain over Indiana and Kentucky. Very thin band of snow at the end of the storm.
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This next image is from around 11 am - 1 pm on Tuesday morning/afternoon
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How about amounts?
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Right now it appears that the ground temperatures are in the 40s and will be wet once the snow arrives. This will hamper the potential for accumulation. Also the precipitation will be ENDING as the cold air filters into the area.
.
If accumulations occur then they should be light. The one caveat to this forecast would be the potential for some banding (where have we heard that before). As you know - banding can cause big forecast headaches in our region. Many events over the last few years produced pockets of heavier snow-bands which caused forecast failures. In order to deal with this I will be using the probability scale. This will give you a rough idea of the over/under potential of a snow event.
.
Let's all keep in mind that this is MOSTLY a RAIN event for our local counties - this is not a classic snowstorm for our region. Had we had more cold air in the region then we would be talking about a significant snowstorm. That just is not the case this time around. Disappointing? For some of us!
.
Probabilities for rainfall totals - Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday afternoon - entire event
There will be a 100% chance of 0.10-0.20" of rain falling - certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.30-0.40" of rain falling - high chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 0.40-0.60" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 0.60-1.00" of rain falling - a chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.00-2.00" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
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Probabilities for SNOWFALL totals - Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday afternoon - entire event for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee
There will be a 60% chance of a dusting (less than one inch) of snow falling - good chance - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 1"-2" of snow falling - chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 2"-3" of snow falling - low chance of occurring- a two out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 3"-4" of snow falling - a chance of occurring - a one in ten chance
There will be a 5% chance of more than 4" of snow falling in snow banding
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What could go wrong in this forecast?
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1. Cold air could move in faster than expected - changing the rain to snow a bit sooner.
2. The track of the upper level features is still uncertain - this will be key on placing the snow band that does fall in the region
3. Ground temperatures - wet ground will slow snow accumulation.
4. The precipitation is coming to AN END when the cold air arrives. This diminishes the chances for significant snow.
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Again KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT - it will END as snow - the questions center on timing of change over to snow and whether anything can stick.
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I will update the blog late tonight or Monday morning if there are significant changes in the data or forecast thoughts concerning this storm system.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is in the forecast for parts of southeast Missouri on Monday night - spreading east into the rest of the area on Tuesday. Some accumulation is possible - depending on the exact track of the storm system. A dusting to an inch or two can't be ruled out. If banding occurs then a stripe of heavier snow would be possible - especially over parts of Missouri and Illinois - most likely the further west and north you go in the area. This will need to be monitored for changes.
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Snow is in the forecast for parts of southeast Missouri on Monday night - spreading east into the rest of the area on Tuesday. Some accumulation is possible - depending on the exact track of the storm system. A dusting to an inch or two can't be ruled out. If banding occurs then a stripe of heavier snow would be possible - especially over parts of Missouri and Illinois - most likely the further west and north you go in the area. This will need to be monitored for changes.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps a mix of above and below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps a mix of above and below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No long range - on my Christmas break :)
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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