February 28, 2011: Heavy rain this morning then ending...

February 28, 2011

Much of the severe weather overnight struck an area from central Missouri into Illinois and southern Indaian.

We did have a trailer with a roof torn off in Massac County - trees downed, as well.

I could say it was a significant forecast bust, though, for the moderate risk area.  Bad forecast.  Areas around us were not so fortunate with major damage in some counties.

Thankfully it was not as widespread as we feared it would be.  Yes - there was some severe weather reports but nothing like we had forecast or expected.

Thus the nature of severe weather forecasting.  The big events always have some potential to bust.  The main reason for this is the "cap" or warm layer aloft.  This keeps thunderstorms from becoming severe.  The cap in our region didn't bust until the main line of storms moved through. 

Rain will continue this morning over our area - some flash flooding is possible.  You can view the latest watches and warnings by clicking here
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

Severe weather threat will continue today for areas to our east...

Rain will come to an end later this morning - calm week ahead.  Rain chances increase again next weekend.

Thanks for all of the reports overnight of hail size and wind damage.  Much appreciated!

Glad we dodge a bullet this time around.

- Beau

February 27, 2011: Dangerous weather situation developing...

February 28, 2011

Watching storms over southern IL back into Missouri

Tornado watches for the whole area

Storms will continue into the early morning hours

Monitor NOAA Weather Radio for warnings - and local media.

Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm


February 27, 2011

4 PM Update

Now we are just waiting...

Visible satellite shows quite a few breaks in the clouds over Arkansas and Tennessee.  Instability is building.  The question is whether or not thunderstorms will form over northern Arkansas and western Tennessee between now and 8 pm.

We will be watching radar.

If thunderstorms do form then they could quickly become severe.

Another round of storms will be possible later tonight and tomorrow morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has kept the region in a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms.

Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

It is just a waiting process now to see how this unfolds.

Beau


February 27, 2011

Good morning everyone -

Severe storms may form as early as late this afternoon and evening...

Storms this morning will be along the warm front - they may produce brief heavy rain and small hail - the main concern, though, will be later today and into the overnight and early AM hours...

we will be running radars today
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Remember we need severe weather reports (please compare hail size to coins)
More information on what we need to know
http://weatherobservatory.com/spotters.htm

A potentially dangerous weather situation is developing across our region later today and into Monday morning.

A warm front will pass through our local counties this morning and early afternoon.  This will usher in warm and moist air into our local area.  Winds will start to turn to the south beneath this warm front and by tonight will be gusting in the 20-35 mph range.

Several upper level storm systems will help trigger thunderstorms today.  The first round of thunderstorms is already occurring north of the warm front over portions of the area (see radar).  These storms may produce small hail.  They will quickly move off to the north/northeast.

A second round of thunderstorms MAY develop early this evening over northeast Arkansas and western Tennessee.  These storms may be tornadic supercells and produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.  They will spread into southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois (if the evening storms do form).

There is some uncertainty on the supercells developing early this evening.  However, if they do form then they would rapidly become severe.

The third risk time is late tonight and early Monday morning - say from 9 pm through 9 am tonight and tomorrow morning.  It is this round that should be the most widespread.

The late night storms will likely produce large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and possibly some tornadoes.  They will be moving rapidly east/northeast at 40-60 mph.  This will mean there will be little warning time before the storms hit.  Be ready to take action if severe weather develops. 

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms.  Remember - they have three levels of risk  Slight - Moderate - and High.  A moderate risk means severe weather is likely.

A flash flood watch has been issued for the entire region, as well.  Mainly because of saturated ground conditions.  I remind everyone to not drive through flooded roadways.  Also please tell students on Monday morning the same.

There is the potential for numerous reports of severe weather in our region from this event.  Please relay all information of damage to the National Weather Service, law enforcement, or local media.  I will have my Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page monitored for the event.
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

Please share the threat for severe weather with your friends and neighbors.  This event could occur after dark making it more of a concern.

I will update the blog and the Facebook page several times today.

- Beau Dodson

Latest Watches and Warnings
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps

Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

Here is the outlined area from the Storm Prediction Center (they will update three or four more times today and I will post new images from them)

February 26, 2011: Severe weather outbreak Sunday night and Monday

February 26, 2011

Short post

Rainfall totals Sunday into Monday in the 1/2 to 1 1/2" range - locally 2" not out of the question...

Highest risk for severe storms will arrive on Sunday night and Monday morning - there could be more than one round of storms.  Tornadoes will be possible along with hail and damaging winds...

Pay close attention to this event as tornadoes may be possible even after midnight into the early AM hours of Monday...

A severe weather outbreak with tornadoes will be possible on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning over the entire region.

We are asking people to spread the word during Sunday morning church services.

All modes of severe weather will be possible - including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

This would be an overnight event on Sunday into early Monday morning.

More information for the Paducah forecast area here - including some video presentations and other...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

A heavy rain event is likely next weekend, as well.  Several inches of rain likely in the region.  This will cause additional flooding concerns.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
332 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO  LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATEST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

COMPARED TO THE THURSDAY EVENING STORM SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS SOMEWHAT HIGHER. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LATE NIGHT EVENTS ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE MANY PEOPLE
ARE UNAWARE OF THEIR SITUATION UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK. DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND TYPE OF STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.


- Beau

February 25, 2011: Calm after the storm - then more storms

February 25, 2011

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...

Thank you for all of the storm reports.

We are all saddened by the tragedy in western Kentucky.  Please keep the family in your thoughts and prayers.

A heavy rain and severe weather event moved through our region with the most significant damage along the KY/TN border counties and the Missouri Bootheel.

Numerous reports of wind damage and hail were received - along with several possible tornadoes.

Flash flooding and heavy rain impacted areas that did not receive severe thunderstorms.  Flooding will continue in some areas over the coming days.

I picked up (and it is still raining as of this writing at 9 pm on Thursday night) over 3.70" of rain.

Quite an amazing rain event.  Widespread totals of 1-4" were reported over the region with some areas picked up 4-6".

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               













The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No risk on Friday - flooding will continue. 

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
Beau's Forecast

Friday: Rain coming to an end early.  Cooler.
Highs: 45-50 degrees | Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy.  Cooler.
Lows: 28-32 degrees | Wind: East/northeast winds at 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny.
Highs: middle 50s | Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy.
Lows: middle 40s | Wind: Southeast/east at 10 mph

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. Windy.
Highs: middle 60s (sun comes out more than expected it could be even warmer) | Wind: South/Southeast at 10-15 mph - gusts to 20-25 mph

Sunday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely - some heavy rain and severe storms possible. Windy.
Lows: middle 50s | Wind: South/Southeast at 10-15 mph - gusts to 20-25 mph
 

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

-------------------
We will need to monitor the Sunday into Monday storm system for heavy rain and severe weather. 
Also - rivers will continue to rise over the coming days.  Some flooding will be possible.


Here are the severe weather reports from Thursday's event

























Stay tuned!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

February 24, 2011: Heavy rain underway and severe weather threat...

February 24, 2011

Severe storms with damage moving through west KY and west TN

Latest warnings - hit refresh
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

- Beau

February 24, 2011

535 PM

New tornado watch for west KY

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0015.html

February 24, 2011

510 PM

Tornadic supercell entering the Missouri Bootheel - tornado warnings have been issued

Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Warnings
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here



February 24, 2011

Blog viewed best with Mozilla Firefox

2 PM

Here is a rainfall total forecast for the next 12 hours (this image includes the last four hours of rainfall, as well)  - as you can see there are several bands of heavy rain.





Also here is a future cast radar showing some supercells in western Tennessee late this afternoon - these could pose a tornado threat and will need to be monitored





Then later this evening a squall line will push across the region - highest impact from this would be the southern half of the area - say from Cape Girardeau to Golconda and then southward

Here is the future-cast radar showing that squall line (later this evening)





Temperatures have risen to above 70 degrees over portions of western Tennessee - near Memphis.  The boundary is slowly moving northward.

Rain continues to fall over much of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and parts of western Kentucky.

The main band of heavier precipitation has shifted northward a bit - out of western Kentucky and into parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

I am nearing 1 1/2" here at my place.

Flash flooding has been reported in the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas into parts of western Tennessee.

Flash flood watches continue into tonight for much of our region.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their afternoon severe weather outlook.  They continue the moderate risk for portions of western Kentucky - southward into Arkansas and Tennessee/Mississippi.

Everything still points towards the highest risk for severe storms to be over Arkansas and Tennessee - then it may nudge into the Missouri Bootheel and portions of Kentucky.

This continues to be closely monitored.

Satellite imagery shows some breaks in the clouds over Arkansas and western Tennessee/northern Mississippi.  This is helping to destabilize the atmosphere.

Thunderstorms are forming a line across Arkansas into Texas.  This line of thunderstorms will push east northeast into the afternoon and evening hours.

A tornado watch has also been issued for much of Arkansas.

Any threat for severe weather in western Kentucky would likely hold off until after 6 pm.

The rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will have a small risk of severe thunderstorms tonight, as well.

Additional rainfall totals through midnight tonight will range from 1-3".  Locally heavier amounts are possible in the most extreme downpours.

Stay tuned to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest updates

You can find radar links and other links below...

- Beau

February 24, 2011

Long range shows multiple storm systems over the next 14 days.  This could be a concern for flooding in the large and small river basins.

-  Beau



February 24, 2011

10 AM Update

I have updated the video

http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Watching some clearing over AR/TN - that will help make the atmosphere unstable over that region.

Rain continues to fall over our local counties.  Already numerous reports of 1-2" of rain.  Portions of northeast AR and western TN have received 2-4" of rain.

Additional rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely over the next 12-18 hours for most of our counties in far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and western KY and western TN - northeast AR.

Rainfall totals when all is said and done should be in the 2-4" range for many counties under the flash flood watch with pockets of 4-6" likely over the northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.

The highest risk for severe storms will arrive later this afternoon and tonight.  The further south you go in the region the better the risk for severe storms.

The Storm Prediction Center will issue a new severe weather outlook at 11 am.  At that time we will see where they believe the highest risk for severe storms will be placed.

See the video for graphics.

-  Beau


February 24, 2011

This blog is best viewed using Mozilla Firefox.  If you are using Internet Explorer then some of the spacing may be off a bit.

Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Another heavy rain and severe weather event is possible Sunday and Monday...


The blog will be updated every 2-4 hours today


Flash flood watches cover much of the area

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches with some areas picking up 3-5" of rain.

Highest severe thunderstorm risk will arrive later today into this evening...

Questions remain on how much instability there will be later today.  When the sun comes out in portions of the severe weather risk area - the atmosphere will heat up a bit.  This causes the air to become unstable.  Unstable air is more likely to produce severe storms.  So - you need instability to help produce severe thunderstorms.

The more unstable the air becomes in Arkansas into Tennessee/Kentucky then the better chance for severe storms.  We likely won't know how much instability there will be until a few more hours.  I am currently waiting on the first visible satellite images to arrive.  That will tell me what conditions are like over Arkansas.

Again - I will update the blog through the day.

My biggest concern area has not changed a bit - the bright red area on my video weather briefing from the last 2 or 3 days - remains the same.  This covers the Missouri Bootheel - portions of Kentucky - portions of Tennessee - Arkansas and Mississippi/Alabama.

Here is the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook - remember they have 3 levels of risk.  Slight - Moderate and High.  They currently have portions of our region in a slight and moderate risk.
























For the latest watches and warnings check your local NWS Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps

I will be on the Facebook page giving updates and answering questions
Here is the link
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather

Area residents should remember not to cross flooded roadways in the event we have heavy rain over the next 48 hours...

We want everyone to be safe - as always!  :)


Weather radar can be viewed here
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull for some of our counties - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours.  Some locally heavy rain likely with strong/severe storms not out of the question.  Mild and windy.  Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-3" range likely across the area.  Locally heavier rain possible in some counties totaling 3-5".  Flash flood watch continues
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.

Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms.  Some thunderstorms may be severe - especially over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky.  Severe weather likely in Arkansas and Tennessee.  Hail, high winds, and tornadoes possible.  Flash flood watch for much of our region.
Lows: temperatures rising into the 60s and then falling into the 40s behind the front | Wind: South winds at 15-30 mph becoming west at 15-25 mph - gusts over 30 mph.

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page

Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               












The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Chance for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  Hail, high winds, and tornadoes possible especially over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky.  Severe weather likely in Arkansas and Tennessee.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

----------------------------------------------

Active pattern is underway.  After this event there will be another significant event on Sunday into Monday.  Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are possible with the late weekend storm.

Stay tuned for updates...

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------


For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

February 23, 2011: Heavy rain event unfolding...

February 23, 2011

11 PM Update

This is the latest statement sent out to the Transportation Cabinet

February 24, 2011 Update

A strong storm system is already spreading heavy showers and thunderstorms into Arkansas and Tennessee early this morning. This area of showers and thunderstorms will spread into Kentucky between 1 am and 5 am this morning.

Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Rain will come in waves today into tonight. There may be a lull in the precipitation in some of our counties on Thursday late morning and Thursday afternoon. Then more rain will spread back into the region.

Much of the State of Kentucky is now under a flash flood watch. Rainfall totals of 1-3" will likely occur in most counties. The southeast portion of Kentucky will likely be spared the excessive rains.

There will be pockets of rainfall totals of 3-5" in some of the counties within the flash flood watch. It will be difficult to determine which counties will receive the heaviest totals until the band actually sets up through the day.

In addition to the flash flood threat there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday evening and Thursday night. This will be highly dependent on the location of the warm front and the track of the area of low pressure.

Tornadoes will be possible along and south of the warm front. The highest threat area for tornadoes will likely be in Arkansas and Tennessee. This will need to be closely monitored.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local National Weather Service Offices for the latest updates as this storm unfolds through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night.

Review flash flood safety rules.

Transportation Cabinet Rainfall Forecasts

Districts 1 2, 3, 4, and portions of District 7 may experience widespread 2-3" of rain with a better chance of some 3-5" reports not out of the question otherwise


Districts 5, 6, 7, (northern part of 8) - rainfall totals of 1-3" widespread. Pockets of 3-5"+

Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 - rainfall totals of 1" could be a few spots of higher rain.

Rain will move out of the state on Thursday night and Friday from west to east. The rain will move out of the eastern portion of the state by Friday afternoon.

Another large and significant weather event is likely to occur on Sunday and Monday. This storm system will spread heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms back into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Obviously any additional rainfall on top of this first event will only compound the problems.

Additional flash flood watches and/or flood watches may be needed for Sunday and or Monday.

Transportation Cabinet Officials should closely monitor this unfolding weather situation from now into the weekend.

Beau Dodson
Meteorologist

You can view radar by visiting this site
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm



9 PM Update

No changes in tonights data

Main threat will be heavy rain

Questions on severe weather - most likely over the area outlined in deep red on my video update - AR/TN

Whether severe weather threat will enter KY will probably not be known until tomorrow morning.

The time period for severe weather would be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Another chance for severe weather and heavy rain on Sunday/Monday

-  Beau


We have been advertising this next storm system for over 10 days now.  Long time - the big events always seem to be that way.

Don't forget we have also been tracking a second event for Sunday/Monday.  Another big storm is likely to occur at that time.

Video has been updated...

 http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

February 23, 2011

5 PM Update

Crunching some new numbers - I am concerned about the tornado threat for portions of AR and TN.  The question mark continues to be the Missouri Bootheel and Kentucky.

Latest data wants to shift the low a tad further north - this would definitely raise concerns for western Kentucky into south central Kentucky.

The NWS has now expanded the flash flood watch further north to include more of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

No change in my previous forecast for rainfall totals - if anything I have increased them since the video last night.

I will have a full update tonight between 9 pm and 10 pm and will be covering this event from early tomorrow morning right on through tomorrow evening.

For the latest watches and warnings please tune into your local National Weather Service web-site and NOAA Weather Radio.

- Beau


February 23, 2011

Blog is best viewed using Mozilla Firefox because of spacing issues with Internet Explorer.  

1 PM Update

No changes - new Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow shows the best risk for severe storms just south of the KY/TN line.  VERY close.

The rest of the area is in a risk for severe storms - hail and high winds being the main threat.

We will have to monitor this closely.  Tornadoes are possible tomorrow in or near our region.  Stay updated as the event unfolds.

Rainfall totals across far southeast MO and southern IL - Kentucky - Tennessee will range from 1-3" with some areas picking up 3+ inches of rain.

The new European Computer Model shows over 3" of rain for the City of Paducah.  

Flash flooding will be possible over our area (southeast MO, southern IL, Kentucky and Tennessee)

Here are some new graphics from the Storm Prediction Center - remember the SPC are the ones that issue the severe weather outlooks.  They have three levels of risk - slight and then moderate and then high.

Slight risk means that severe weather will most likely occur but not be as widespread
Moderate risk means that widespread severe weather is possible
High risk means that a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely

Don't pay too much attention to the risk levels - just remember that it means severe weather will be possible and pay attention for updates.
























The severe weather outlook for Thursday - you can see a slight and moderate risk over our area.


They also issue probabilities - you can see that they are quite high for portions of the region.  Probabilities indicate the chances of an event within 25 miles of any given point.  You can see a 45% contour on the map (again that is quite high and means that the forecasters are confident that severe weather will likely occur)  More information on this map - click here
























 And finally here is the 5 day rainfall outlook - impressive totals





-  Beau

February 23, 2011

10 AM

Temperatures have risen above freezing over most counties - so the threat for frozen precipitation is limited to the far northern counties.

Our big storm that we have been talking about for the last week and a half if now approaching the region.  It appears as juicy as ever.

A flash flood watch has been issued for much of western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri

The watch outline can be viewed here

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

Additional heavy rain is likely on Sunday/Monday.

-  Beau


February 23, 2011

Area residents should remember not to cross flooded roadways in the event we have heavy rain over the next 48 hours...

We want everyone to be safe - as always!  :)


Weather radar can be viewed here
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Wednesday: A slight chance for amixture of sleet and freezing rain early changing to scattered rain. 
Highs: Highs in the lower 50s | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday night: Rain re-developing - 100% chance of rain late.  A chance for thunder.  Milder and breezy. 
Lows: Lower 50s with temperatures rising through the night | Wind: South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusts to 25 mph.

Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours.  Some locally heavy rain possible with strong/severe storms not out of the question.  Mild and windy.  Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-2" range likely across the area.  Locally heavier rain possible in some counties.
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page

Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               












The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and Thursday.  Some heavy rain is possible and possibly strong storms.  Stay tuned

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

----------------------------------------------

Active pattern is underway

Stay tuned for updates...

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------


For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

February 22, 2011: Colder for Tuesday - heavy rain possible later this week

February 22, 2011

2 PM Update

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.
Highs: Middle 40s | Wind: North winds at 10 mph.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear.  Colder.
Lows: Upper 20s and lower 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Milder.  A slight chance for a few scattered showers.
Highs: Highs in the lower 50s | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday night: Rain developing - 100% chance of rain late.  A chance for thunder.  Milder and breezy. 
Lows: Lower 50s with temperatures rising through the night | Wind: South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusts to 25 mph.

Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours.  Some locally heavy rain possible with strong/severe storms not out of the question.  Mild and windy.  Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-2" range likely across the area.  Locally heavier rain possible in some counties.
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.


10 AM Update

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox

No real changes this morning - there are major disagreements among forecasters as to the track of the surface low on Thursday.  And - unfortunately - this has a huge impact on our local weather.

If this low tracks to our north then the odds increase for severe weather for our local counties.  However, if the low tracks to our south then we are looking at mostly a heavy rain event.

This mornings data indicates a southward shift in the low vs what we were seeing yesterday.  This could mean good news for our area.

I don't believe the models will have a handle on the track of the low until Wednesday night.

This is a stay tuned type event. 

I am forecasting rainfall totals of 1-2" for most of our counties with locally 2-4" of rain in a band from eastern Arkansas into Kentucky.  We will have to see where the exact placement of that heavier band sets up.  Either way - a widespread rainfall event is going to impact the region.

Another rain maker is likely early next week.  Additional rainfall totals of 1-2" may occur.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued its day 3 severe weather outlook.  I am going to post the probability chart - the 30% region is quite significant this far out.  I believe this would be at least a moderate risk (remember the SPC has three levels - slight and then moderate and then finally high risk).

Again - a lot of this will be determined by the track of the area of low pressure.


























February 22, 2011

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page

Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               












The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and Thursday.  Some heavy rain is possible and possibly strong storms.  Stay tuned

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.
Highs: Middle 40s | Wind: North winds at 10 mph.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear.  Colder.
Lows: Lower 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild.
Highs: Highs in the lower 50s | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.

Wednesday night: Rain developing - 100% chance of rain late.  Milder and breezy. 
Lows: Lower 50s with temperatures rising through the night | Wind: South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusts to 25 mph.

Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours.  Some locally heavy rain possible with strong/severe storms not out of the question.  Mild and windy.  Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-2" range likely across the area.  Locally heavier rain possible in some counties.
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

----------------------------------------------

Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring colder temperatures to our region.  This is behind the cold front that brought our rain on Monday.  Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.30" were widespread over the area - especially the central and eastern half of the area.

The next storm - that we have been talking about for quite some time now - will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the warm front on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.  These showers and thunderstorms will spread into the region from the west and southwest.

On Thursday the whole storm system will push through the region.

The risk for severe weather will depend on the track of the low.  If the low tracks to our north then we have a better risk for strong or severe storms.

If the low tracks to our south then we would mainly be facing moderate to heavy rain.

Right now it appears the low will track over our region or perhaps a little north of our local counties.
That would mean there would be a risk for some strong storms on Thursday.

Rainfall totals on Wednesday night through Friday will likely be in the 1-2".  Locally heavier amounts will certainly be possible over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Another storm system will approach our regiono n Sunday night or Monday.  This storm could also spread more rain and thunderstorms into the region.

Active pattern is underway

Stay tuned for updates...

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------


For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

Monday, February 21, 2011: Rain today then severe weather possible later this week

February 21, 2011

3 PM Update

Rain is moving through the region - quite widespread at that.  I have picked up 0.18" here at my place in Massac County.

Showers and locally heavy downpours will move east through the evening hours.

Colder air is already filtering into our local counties.  The temperature has fallen to 48 degrees here already.

See radar for live coverage of where the rain is currently falling.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here

-  Beau

February 21, 2011

Monday's update below the special weather statement...

Special statement...

A storm system will approach the region on Thursday and Friday (February 24th/25th) .

This system has the potential to produce widespread rain across the region. Some of this rain may be heavy at times.

There will be a risk for thunderstorms with severe weather if the area of low pressure tracks through or to the north of Kentucky.

The potential exists for several inches of rain on Thursday through Friday. This may cause flash flooding and/or general flooding.

Now is the time to review severe weather awareness information and remind everyone of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.

- Beau Dodson


Monday's Update Below

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page

Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               












The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Chance for a thunderstorms with the cold front - lightning being the main hazard.  Gusty winds not out of the question.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers during the early AM hours - rain and thunderstorms increasing during the morning and afternoon hours.  Temperatures will fall during the afternoon hours into the 40s.
Highs: Lower 60s falling during the afternoon into the 40s/50s | Wind: South at 10-20 mph becoming west at 10-20 mph.

Monday night: Rain ending.  Colder.
Lows: Lower to middle 30s | Wind: West/northwest at 10-15 mph.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Cold.
Highs: Highs in the lower 40s | Wind: North at 10-15 mph.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

-------------------

Here is the future-cast radar for the 12 pm - 2 pm time range.  You can see the area of showers and thunderstorms lined up over portions of Missouri and Illinois.

Click image for larger view



I am increasingly concerned about the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain next Thursday and Friday.  Flash flooding could be a concern for portions of the Ohio Valley.  This event will need to be monitored in the coming days.

It is still too early to determine whether severe thunderstorms will develop late next week - again we will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.

It increasingly appears that a severe weather outbreak will be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area that includes our region.  If instability can be reached then severe weather will likely occur.  Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and tornadoes can not be ruled out on Thursday in or near our region.

Stay tuned for updates...

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------


For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

February 20, 2011: Systems to watch - heavy rain threat potential late this week...

February 20, 2011

6 PM Update

A storm system will approach the region on Thursday and Friday (February 24th/25th) .

This system has the potential to produce widespread rain across the region. Some of this rain may be heavy at times.

There will be a risk for thunderstorms with severe weather if the area of low pressure tracks through or to the north of Kentucky.

The potential exists for several inches of rain on Thursday through Friday. This may cause flash flooding and/or general flooding.

Now is the time to review severe weather awareness information and remind everyone of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.

- Beau Dodson


February 20, 2011

Good afternoon everyone!

Warm!  Temperatures have risen into the upper 60s and lower 70s over the region.  Winds are gusting in the 20-30 mph range.  Higher gusts will occur over the coming hours.  Main concern would be those out on area lakes.  Use some caution.

Here is one of the high resolution models that I use - this is wind gust map - for the coming hours.  You can see some 30+ colors in there (scale is at the bottom of the map) - click map for full image (again this is all best viewed with Mozilla Firefox)

Strongest winds should be between 2 pm and 5 pm.

























Rain likely on Monday - rainfall totals of 0.10-0.30"

Our big storm that we have been talking about is starting to take shape for THU and FRI.  A severe weather event is likely over portions of the Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley.  Exact track of the storm will be key.

The Storm Prediction Center is already talking about a potential for supercells and tornadoes.

Still days away but let's all start thinking about the potential for an event later this week.

Remember that we need storm spotters!  Accurate information on hail size, wind damage, flash flooding, wall cloud and funnel cloud reports, tree limb size if tree limbs fall.  All of this information helps us with the warning process.

Some more information on what to report (I may work on a page for you guys - see if I can come up with something)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/skywarn/svr-reports.html

-  Beau

February 20, 2011

This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox

High winds likely on Sunday across the region...

Heavy rain threat possible late next week...

For those out on the rivers and lakes - please be aware that winds will gust between 30-40+ mph on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.  

Use caution on rivers and lakes.

Remember that there are burn bans in effect - please don't burn brush or other.

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page

Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               












The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
Beau's Forecast

Sunday: Windy - warm - a mix of sun and clouds.  A stray sprinkle possible.
Highs: 68-72 Wind: Southeast/south winds at 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy - a chance for showers.  Breezy and mild.  Rainfall amounts less than 0.10"
Lows: middle to upper 50s | Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers during the early AM hours - rain increasing during the morning and afternoon hours.  Temperatures will fall during the afternoon hours into the 40s.
Highs: Upper 50s falling during the afternoon into the 40s | Wind: South at 10 mph becoming west at 10-15 mph.

Monday night: Rain ending.  Colder.
Lows: Lower to middle 30s | Wind: West/northwest at 10-15 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy.  Cold.
Highs: Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s | Wind: South/Southeast at 10-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph - winds becoming west late in the day at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

-------------------


Sunday will be windy - rain chances will increase on Monday and ending Monday night.  No severe weather is forecast.

MUCH above normal temperatures for your Sunday - check out these departures.



Image from Weather Nation

I am increasingly concerned about the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain next Thursday and Friday.  Flash flooding could be a concern for portions of the Ohio Valley.  This event will need to be monitored in the coming days.

It is still too early to determine whether severe thunderstorms will develop late next week - again we will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.

Here is what the GFS is showing for rainfall totals from Sunday through next Friday - image from Storm Vista



















Stay tuned!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

February 19, 2011: WINDY Sunday ahead of us - rain chances increase Monday

February 19, 2011

Noon Update

 No changes in ongoing - there are some rain showers around the area.  See radar for more on that subject.

HIGH WINDS LIKELY ON SUNDAY

For those out on the rivers and lakes - please be aware that winds will gust between 30-40+ mph on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will be quite warm tomorrow, as well.

Use caution on rivers and lakes.

-  Beau


February 19, 2011

Remember that there are burn bans in effect - please don't burn brush or other.

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               













The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None















The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Sleet has been reported with temperatures in the middle to upper 40s in southern Illinois. 


Beau's Forecast ...

Saturday: Scattered showers around the area - mixed with sleet in some counties (no travel problems - just a novelty) .  A bit cooler. Rainfall amounts less than 0.10"
Highs: 47-52 Wind: Northeast at 5-10 mph

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy - stray sprinkle or shower.  Cooler.  Rainfall amounts less than 0.10"
Lows: upper 30s to lower 40s | Wind: North/northeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph turning to the east late.

Sunday: High winds likely - a mix of sun and clouds sprinkle possible.  Warm.
Highs: 68-72 | Wind: South/southeast at 20-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers.
Lows: 50-52 | Wind: South at 15-25 mph.

Monday: Rain likely.  Mild - temperatures falling late in the day and evening.
Highs: middle 60s | Wind: South/Southeast at 10-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph - winds becoming west late in the day at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
 

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

-------------------
Unsettled pattern over the coming 8-12 day period.  
High winds are likely on Sunday.
Rainfall totals on Monday will likely be in the 0.10-0.30" range.

Another chance for heavier rain around next Thursday/Friday with possibly 1/2 - 1 1/2" amounts.
Roller coaster ride with temperatures.   

Stay tuned!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.

February 18, 2011: Unsettled pattern

February 18, 2011

Remember that there are burn bans in effect - please don't burn brush or other.

You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
 
Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               













The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: A rumble of thunder in the morning is possible















The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: None


Beau's Forecast ...

Friday: A chance for morning showers with a rumble of thunder possible.
Highs: 62-65 temperatures may fall a bit in the late afternoon hours | Wind: South at 10-15 mph in the morning becoming west/northwest at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon hours.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy - stray sprinkle or shower.  Cooler.
Lows: upper 30s | Wind: North/northeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph

Saturday: Cloudy with a chance for a shower. Cooler.
Highs: middle - upper 50s | Wind: Northeast wind becoming east at 10-15 mph
 
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower.
Lows: middle 40s | Wind: Southeast/east at 10 mph
 
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Windy.
Highs: middle 60s (sun comes out more than expected it could be even warmer) | Wind: South/Southeast at 10-15 mph - gusts to 30-35 mph
 

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

-------------------
 
Unsettled pattern over the coming 8-12 day period.  Some scattered showers in the morning.  Better chance of rain on Monday and again later next week. 
 
Roller coaster ride with temperatures.   

Stay tuned!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

--------------

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.