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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: Rain - rain may be moderate at times. Turning colder late. Rain may mix with or change to snow from west to east very late tonight.
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.Wind: East winds early then shifting to the north at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.30"-0.60" with locally heavier amounts
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Windy at times. Colder. Cloudy with rain or snow early - ending during the afternoon hours. Some light accumulation of snow can't be ruled out - especially on grassy surfaces. If banding occurs then slightly heavier totals are possible in some counties causing a brief period of slick roads.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: In the upper 30s and lower 40s. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Winds turning to the west/northwest at 10-20 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 70% during the morning hours Rainfall totals after 7 am: 0.10-0.30"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and colder.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cool.
Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 44 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph 5 Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Rain may turn to snow late tonight and tomorrow morning - road temperatures are not too cold. Expect if there were to be some accumulation that it would mainly be on grassy surfaces. Only exception to this would be if snow comes down heavy in any banding that might form. This could cause slick roads in some areas for a brief period of time. Snow comes down hard enough it will stick even to roads - for brief times. Keep that in mind, as well please.
Monitor updated forecasts if you have travel concerns.
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The wild card will be whether or not snow will actually accumulate a little bit on grassy surfaces. There are some questions as to just how much precipitation will be left by the time it is cold enough to turn to snow. Most of this event is RAIN - so keep that in mind. It will end as a rain/snow or snow mix.
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If banding occurs then heavier snowfall totals will be possible in some counties - this could cause brief travel problems before the snow melts.
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Tweaked rainfall total probabilities and the snowfall probabilities - see below
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Rain may change to snow late tonight.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Rain may change to snow late tonight.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Rain may mix with or change to snow during the early AM hours on Tuesday - as the system pulls away.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice..
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice is in the forecast.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Rain arrives tonight - as expected. Another in a series of storm systems to impact our region. The good news is that the long range data indicates that perhaps we are about to see a slow down in the parade of rain makers. We need a break. Let's hope the forecast holds.
HEADLINE: Rain arrives tonight - as expected. Another in a series of storm systems to impact our region. The good news is that the long range data indicates that perhaps we are about to see a slow down in the parade of rain makers. We need a break. Let's hope the forecast holds.
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As the storm pulls away on Tuesday morning we will see the rain come to an end. Rain may mix with or change to snow very late tonight (Monday night) or on Tuesday morning - from west to east. That means that parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri will see some snow first and then parts of Kentucky and Indiana.
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There are still some questions on the timing of the change-over and whether the rain will change to snow at all in parts of our area (southern counties) - but all in all the data seems to point to at least some snowflakes in the air by late tonight and tomorrow morning.
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I am thinking that many will see at least some snowflakes before it all comes to an end - at least in the air. But accumulations should not be significant. This is mainly because the ground temperatures are warm and surface temperatures won't be all that cold - plus it will be raining before the changeover occurs.
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If any banding forms as the precipitation pulls away then there could be some local pockets where the snow comes down hard enough for brief periods of time to cause light accumulations. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 30s or lower 40s tomorrow - If there were travel concerns then it would be during a brief window of heavier snow - snow would then melt soon after it quits.
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If you do have travel plans late tonight or early tomorrow morning then perhaps just take a little extra time to see what is showing up on radar and what current conditions indicate.
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How about amounts?
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If accumulations occur then they should be light. The one caveat to this forecast would be the potential for some banding (where have we heard that before). As you know - banding can cause big forecast headaches in our region. Many events over the last few years produced pockets of heavier snow-bands which caused forecast failures. In order to deal with this I will be using the probability scale. This will give you a rough idea of the over/under potential of a snow event.
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Probabilities for rainfall totals - Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday afternoon - entire event
There will be a 100% chance of 0.20-0.40" of rain falling - certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 0.40-0.60" of rain falling - high chance of occurring - a eight out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.60-0.80" of rain falling - good chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 0.80-1.20" of rain falling - a chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.20-2.00" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
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Probabilities for SNOWFALL totals - Monday night through Tuesday morning - entire event for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee
There will be an 80% chance of a seeing snowflakes in the air up to a dusting (less than one inch) of snow falling - likely chance - an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 1"-2" of snow falling - chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2"-3" of snow falling - low chance of occurring- a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 3"-4" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of more than 4" of snow falling in snow banding
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Here is the FutureCast Radar - WRF from www.wright-weather.com - this is for tomorrow morning between 7 am and 10 am - you can see the NARROW band of white - snow at the end of the storm. Sure isn't much room there for play. We will see how it goes.
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Click image for real view size
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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How about amounts?
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If accumulations occur then they should be light. The one caveat to this forecast would be the potential for some banding (where have we heard that before). As you know - banding can cause big forecast headaches in our region. Many events over the last few years produced pockets of heavier snow-bands which caused forecast failures. In order to deal with this I will be using the probability scale. This will give you a rough idea of the over/under potential of a snow event.
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Probabilities for rainfall totals - Monday afternoon/night through Tuesday afternoon - entire event
There will be a 100% chance of 0.20-0.40" of rain falling - certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 0.40-0.60" of rain falling - high chance of occurring - a eight out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 0.60-0.80" of rain falling - good chance of occurring- a six out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 0.80-1.20" of rain falling - a chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.20-2.00" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
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Probabilities for SNOWFALL totals - Monday night through Tuesday morning - entire event for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee
There will be an 80% chance of a seeing snowflakes in the air up to a dusting (less than one inch) of snow falling - likely chance - an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 1"-2" of snow falling - chance of occurring - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2"-3" of snow falling - low chance of occurring- a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 3"-4" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of more than 4" of snow falling in snow banding
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Here is the FutureCast Radar - WRF from www.wright-weather.com - this is for tomorrow morning between 7 am and 10 am - you can see the NARROW band of white - snow at the end of the storm. Sure isn't much room there for play. We will see how it goes.
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Click image for real view size
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is in the forecast for parts of southeast Missouri on Monday night - spreading east into the rest of the area on Tuesday. Some accumulation is possible - depending on the exact track of the storm system. A dusting to an inch or two can't be ruled out. If banding occurs then a stripe of heavier snow would be possible. See probabilities in the Headlines section of the outlook.
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Snow is in the forecast for parts of southeast Missouri on Monday night - spreading east into the rest of the area on Tuesday. Some accumulation is possible - depending on the exact track of the storm system. A dusting to an inch or two can't be ruled out. If banding occurs then a stripe of heavier snow would be possible. See probabilities in the Headlines section of the outlook.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps a mix of above and below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps a mix of above and below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Nothing major to talk about in the longer range - will be away for a few days - will update each day but with shorter posts.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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