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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds
Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 48-50 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Near normal temperatures.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Increasing clouds.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Cloudy with an increasing chance of rain. Most likely precip will arrive late morning or afternoon. Brief period of freezing rain/sleet at the start is possible - then changing to rain. The later the precipitation arrives the better chance it will be all rain in west KY and far southern IL.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 38 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% - especially later in the day | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.30"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Will need to monitor Monday for the chance of sleet/rain/freezing rain turning to rain. Right now it appears mostly a rain event for far southern IL and western KY.
Monitor updated forecasts for Monday - especially if traveling Please remember that it only takes a TRACE of freezing rain to cause travel problems.
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The wild card in this forecast will be what type of precipitation will fall on Monday. Appears a BRIEF mixture will be possible - if this occurs it would not last long. Also the exact timing of the precipitation - appears it will move in from the south - starting in northeast AR and west TN then spreading north and east.
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Then the question will be when does the rain turn to snow on Tuesday and how much falls. Stay tuned.
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No major changes in the forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A slight chance for freezing rain mixed with rain on Monday - then turning to all rain. Some uncertainties on the exact timing of the precipitation. Watch for updates on the blog and the Facebook page.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE! I HOPE YOU HAVE A WONDERFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND!
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Christmas Eve brought some SUNSHINE to the area - clouds lingered over the southern half of the area. It was certainly nice to finally see the sun - some people were starting to have doubts that it would return.
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Sunday - Christmas Day - will bring more sun and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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Our next weather maker arrives on Monday. Precipitation will spread in from Arkansas and Tennessee moving north and northeast in Missouri, Kentucky, and Illinois. Surface temperatures may be cold enough to support a BRIEF mix of freezing rain and sleet at the start. Then the precipitation will change to plain/cold rain by late afternoon and evening.
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There are still questions on the timing of the precipitation onset and just how much will fall as freezing rain - if any. Check back for updates. Right now it appears late morning or during the afternoon hours.
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The rain will then turn to snow from west to east across the area late on Monday night or Tuesday morning. Several inches of snow may fall in some counties - but which counties. That remains the question. IF there were to be accumulation then it would be more likely over parts of eastern Missouri into the northern parts of southern Illinois.
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Keep in mind that this is mostly a rain event for our immediate local counties. Also keep in mind that it only takes a TRACE of freezing rain to cause travel problems.
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For you hardcore weather fans - here is the BUFKIT view of the precipitation amounts and type for Paducah, KY from both the NAM and GFS - date goes from right to left on these images. Green is rain - orange is a mix. You can see that as of this morning both the NAM and GFS were showing mostly rain. However, I suspect they are missing the change over to snow at the end - whether it amounts to much or not.
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And GFS from BUFKIT
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The 850 mb low should track over our area. Typically the best snow falls to the north and northwest of the 850 mb low. That could be across parts of Missouri and Illinois - north and west of a line from Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon. Rough sketch of an idea - this far out. This will need to be monitored - it is a bit soon to make a forecast on accumulation potential.
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Let's take a look at that 850 mb low on this map - you can see the L - this is not an overly developed 850 mb low. WEAK - assuming the NAM Model is correct in its depiction - still some time to tweak this path - but I wanted to give you the idea - the blue colors are temperatures at the 850 mb level - that is several thousand feet above the surface (blue is cold).
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Images are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for FULL size view
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Do you see how the blue colors SWING into our local counties on Monday night and Tuesday - The Z time is ZULU time - 6z is around midnight Tuesday morning - 9z is around 2-3 am Tuesday morning - and so on - as the colder air ARRIVES the storm is PULLING away - see the precipitation maps below the 850 maps. It will be a RACE against the precipitation moving out vs the colder air moving in.
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The 850 mb low is the little L passing over the Cape Girardeau area then crossing into Illinois and Indiana in subsequent maps.
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Again click image for real view size.
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Here are the precipitation maps - the first two maps are MONDAY morning and MONDAY afternoon - precipitation is knocking at our door Monday morning and then MOVES INTO the region on Monday afternoon. The timing will need to be monitored because this will determine whether it is all rain or a mix of freezing rain and rain. Typically precipitation tends to move in a bit faster than forecast - but not always. Monitor for updates.
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NOW let's take a look at what it looks like as it pulls away from the area on Tuesday morning.
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The white area is where SNOW is forecast to fall - REMEMBER the 850 mb maps that I showed you above - then compare that to where the snow is falling. You want to be on the west/north side of that low in order to have a better shot at snow.
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Again click map for FULL size image - this first image is for around 2-4 am on Tuesday morning
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This last image is for around 5-7 am on Tuesday morning - you get the general idea. Storm pulling AWAY and rain ending as snow. Don't take this to be exact because it is still several days away and models don't do well with change-over type situations. Use this as a broad-brushed idea of what is forecast to happen.
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AND JUST FOR FUN - let's pull up the forecasted snowfall amounts from Earl's site - these are a broad-brush - rough idea of where snow might fall and how much. I should warn you that these maps don't perform well outside of 12-24 hours. But - none-the-less I thought you might want to see what the NAM model is thinking.
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See where the heaviest accumulation is forecast? To the west and north of the 850 mb low!
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Again - click for real view size
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Factors against accumulations will be ground temperatures in the 40s - wet ground conditions (anywhere from 0.25-0.75" of rain is expected before it changes to snow) - and the storm pulling away as the cold air arrives.
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This is more of a rain event than anything else. Keep that in mind. Unless you are further north and west - closer to the northern parts of southeast MO and Southern Illinois.
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Bottom line - I will need to update the snow part of the forecast. IF snow were to accumulate then the best chances for that occurring would be over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - the further north and west you travel in those areas. Roughly along and west of Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - possibly the hill country of southeast Missouri, as well.
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If the storm tracks just a bit further south and east then more snow will fall over MO/IL and perhaps into KY/IN. The EXACT track of this system is a bit uncertain - the models may be a bit too far north with the 850 mb low and surface low. IF SO then we will have to monitor late Monday night into Tuesday for accumulating snow. Stay tuned
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Questions also remain on whether the precipitation will begin as a BRIEF period of freezing rain on Monday. This will depend on the arrival time of the precipitation.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE! I HOPE YOU HAVE A WONDERFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND!
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Christmas Eve brought some SUNSHINE to the area - clouds lingered over the southern half of the area. It was certainly nice to finally see the sun - some people were starting to have doubts that it would return.
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Sunday - Christmas Day - will bring more sun and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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Our next weather maker arrives on Monday. Precipitation will spread in from Arkansas and Tennessee moving north and northeast in Missouri, Kentucky, and Illinois. Surface temperatures may be cold enough to support a BRIEF mix of freezing rain and sleet at the start. Then the precipitation will change to plain/cold rain by late afternoon and evening.
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There are still questions on the timing of the precipitation onset and just how much will fall as freezing rain - if any. Check back for updates. Right now it appears late morning or during the afternoon hours.
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The rain will then turn to snow from west to east across the area late on Monday night or Tuesday morning. Several inches of snow may fall in some counties - but which counties. That remains the question. IF there were to be accumulation then it would be more likely over parts of eastern Missouri into the northern parts of southern Illinois.
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Keep in mind that this is mostly a rain event for our immediate local counties. Also keep in mind that it only takes a TRACE of freezing rain to cause travel problems.
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For you hardcore weather fans - here is the BUFKIT view of the precipitation amounts and type for Paducah, KY from both the NAM and GFS - date goes from right to left on these images. Green is rain - orange is a mix. You can see that as of this morning both the NAM and GFS were showing mostly rain. However, I suspect they are missing the change over to snow at the end - whether it amounts to much or not.
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And GFS from BUFKIT
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The 850 mb low should track over our area. Typically the best snow falls to the north and northwest of the 850 mb low. That could be across parts of Missouri and Illinois - north and west of a line from Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon. Rough sketch of an idea - this far out. This will need to be monitored - it is a bit soon to make a forecast on accumulation potential.
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Let's take a look at that 850 mb low on this map - you can see the L - this is not an overly developed 850 mb low. WEAK - assuming the NAM Model is correct in its depiction - still some time to tweak this path - but I wanted to give you the idea - the blue colors are temperatures at the 850 mb level - that is several thousand feet above the surface (blue is cold).
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Images are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for FULL size view
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Do you see how the blue colors SWING into our local counties on Monday night and Tuesday - The Z time is ZULU time - 6z is around midnight Tuesday morning - 9z is around 2-3 am Tuesday morning - and so on - as the colder air ARRIVES the storm is PULLING away - see the precipitation maps below the 850 maps. It will be a RACE against the precipitation moving out vs the colder air moving in.
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The 850 mb low is the little L passing over the Cape Girardeau area then crossing into Illinois and Indiana in subsequent maps.
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Again click image for real view size.
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Here are the precipitation maps - the first two maps are MONDAY morning and MONDAY afternoon - precipitation is knocking at our door Monday morning and then MOVES INTO the region on Monday afternoon. The timing will need to be monitored because this will determine whether it is all rain or a mix of freezing rain and rain. Typically precipitation tends to move in a bit faster than forecast - but not always. Monitor for updates.
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NOW let's take a look at what it looks like as it pulls away from the area on Tuesday morning.
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The white area is where SNOW is forecast to fall - REMEMBER the 850 mb maps that I showed you above - then compare that to where the snow is falling. You want to be on the west/north side of that low in order to have a better shot at snow.
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Again click map for FULL size image - this first image is for around 2-4 am on Tuesday morning
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This last image is for around 5-7 am on Tuesday morning - you get the general idea. Storm pulling AWAY and rain ending as snow. Don't take this to be exact because it is still several days away and models don't do well with change-over type situations. Use this as a broad-brushed idea of what is forecast to happen.
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AND JUST FOR FUN - let's pull up the forecasted snowfall amounts from Earl's site - these are a broad-brush - rough idea of where snow might fall and how much. I should warn you that these maps don't perform well outside of 12-24 hours. But - none-the-less I thought you might want to see what the NAM model is thinking.
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See where the heaviest accumulation is forecast? To the west and north of the 850 mb low!
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Again - click for real view size
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Factors against accumulations will be ground temperatures in the 40s - wet ground conditions (anywhere from 0.25-0.75" of rain is expected before it changes to snow) - and the storm pulling away as the cold air arrives.
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This is more of a rain event than anything else. Keep that in mind. Unless you are further north and west - closer to the northern parts of southeast MO and Southern Illinois.
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Bottom line - I will need to update the snow part of the forecast. IF snow were to accumulate then the best chances for that occurring would be over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - the further north and west you travel in those areas. Roughly along and west of Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - possibly the hill country of southeast Missouri, as well.
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If the storm tracks just a bit further south and east then more snow will fall over MO/IL and perhaps into KY/IN. The EXACT track of this system is a bit uncertain - the models may be a bit too far north with the 850 mb low and surface low. IF SO then we will have to monitor late Monday night into Tuesday for accumulating snow. Stay tuned
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Questions also remain on whether the precipitation will begin as a BRIEF period of freezing rain on Monday. This will depend on the arrival time of the precipitation.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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A BRIEF period of freezing rain is possible on Monday morning or Monday afternoon before changing to a cold rain - rain will change to snow late Monday night or on Tuesday. Too early to be overly specific - this is more of a rain event than snow event.
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Best chance of accumulating snow will be over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois - further west and north you travel - better chance for snow. IF the storm tracks a tad further south and east then snow chances GO UP - everywhere in our area.
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A BRIEF period of freezing rain is possible on Monday morning or Monday afternoon before changing to a cold rain - rain will change to snow late Monday night or on Tuesday. Too early to be overly specific - this is more of a rain event than snow event.
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Best chance of accumulating snow will be over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois - further west and north you travel - better chance for snow. IF the storm tracks a tad further south and east then snow chances GO UP - everywhere in our area.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 25th-27th
Event: Precipitation event.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No long range update - it's Christmas weekend! Busy busy!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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