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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Increasingly cloudy. Not as cold as recent nights.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Cloudy with patches of light rain and showers - especially northern and western counties. Milder.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 50-55 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday night: A chance for showers. Showers more likely after midnight.
Above normal temperatures.
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% early and then 80% late | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.35"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% early and then 80% late | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.35"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely - especially the first half of the day.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 54-58 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"0.40"
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Rumble of thunder possible.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few rumbles of thunder possible.
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Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few rumbles of thunder possible.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Sunday brought nice weather to the region - a few more clouds than Saturday but temperatures were above normal and mostly in the 50s. Not bad for the middle of December.
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A major storm system is moving out of the southwest United States - BLIZZARD watches are in effect for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas - heavy wind driven snow is likely to impact those regions over the coming days. Would not be surprised if some locations pick up more than a foot of snow! Wouldn't mind being out there to photograph some snow.
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We will not be experiencing blizzard conditions in our region! RAIN will once again be on tap for our local counties. A few showers will move into the region on Monday and Monday night but the bulk of the precipitation will arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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I am sticking with previous thoughts of 0.40-0.80" of rain for most areas. There will be some over/under totals. See the probabilities forecast below for the chances of over/under amounts.
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Clouds and some showers may linger into Wednesday as the system pulls away. Rainfall amounts on Wednesday will be light - trace to perhaps 0.10" - bottom line is that most of the rain will fall on Monday night late and then Tuesday.
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Slightly colder air will push in behind the storm system for Wednesday and Thursday. Seasonable temperatures - nothing outrageous.
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The rest of the week will bring a mixture of clouds and on/off precipitation chances - widespread rain event Thursday. See the long range discussion below.
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Probabilities for rainfall totals - Monday through Wednesday - entire event
There will be a 100% chance of 0.20-0.50" of rain falling - certain chance - an ten out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - good chance of occurring - a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - medium chance of occurring- a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a chance of occurring - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.50-2.50" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: Sunday brought nice weather to the region - a few more clouds than Saturday but temperatures were above normal and mostly in the 50s. Not bad for the middle of December.
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A major storm system is moving out of the southwest United States - BLIZZARD watches are in effect for portions of Oklahoma and Kansas - heavy wind driven snow is likely to impact those regions over the coming days. Would not be surprised if some locations pick up more than a foot of snow! Wouldn't mind being out there to photograph some snow.
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We will not be experiencing blizzard conditions in our region! RAIN will once again be on tap for our local counties. A few showers will move into the region on Monday and Monday night but the bulk of the precipitation will arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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I am sticking with previous thoughts of 0.40-0.80" of rain for most areas. There will be some over/under totals. See the probabilities forecast below for the chances of over/under amounts.
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Clouds and some showers may linger into Wednesday as the system pulls away. Rainfall amounts on Wednesday will be light - trace to perhaps 0.10" - bottom line is that most of the rain will fall on Monday night late and then Tuesday.
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Slightly colder air will push in behind the storm system for Wednesday and Thursday. Seasonable temperatures - nothing outrageous.
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The rest of the week will bring a mixture of clouds and on/off precipitation chances - widespread rain event Thursday. See the long range discussion below.
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Probabilities for rainfall totals - Monday through Wednesday - entire event
There will be a 100% chance of 0.20-0.50" of rain falling - certain chance - an ten out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - good chance of occurring - a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - medium chance of occurring- a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a chance of occurring - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 1.50-2.50" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in our forecast...
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No snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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If you are looking for snow :) - here are some snow forecast maps
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If you are looking for snow :) - here are some snow forecast maps
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 18th - December 24th
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday/Friday
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 25th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley - more below normal temperatures days vs above normal days.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses mixed in with above normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 18th - December 24th
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday/Friday
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 25th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley - more below normal temperatures days vs above normal days.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses mixed in with above normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Well - here we go. Into the home stretch! I have been talking about a big storm around the end of December for about eight weeks. The question has been fine tuning the dates and placement of the storm - whether it would be an Ohio and Tennessee Valley storm or a Tennessee Valley storm - southward. Crunch time for the models.
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Thursday and Thursday night will bring another push of precipitation into our region - from the south. Right now it appears that it will be warm enough on Thursday and Thursday night for the precipitation to remain rain. Rainfall totals from that system should be less than 1" - will need to fine tune the totals as we draw closer to the event. Heavier totals are likely across the southern and southeastern portions of the region - could be heavy rains in Tennessee if the track is as I expect it to be.
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Rain should come to an end by Friday morning. Only a small chance for precipitation remains on Friday afternoon/night - as the system pulls away. Precipitation may end as a light mixture. Again - depending on storm track (see below)
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The precipitation on Thursday and Thursday night will be partly dependent on how far northwest the storm coming out of the southern United States pushes. There is major disagreement on this issue. Right now the European model has it far enough west that it covers most of our region with precipitation - however, if the storm were to trend further east/southeast then parts of the area may remain dry. Stay tuned for updates on this part of the forecast. Confidence is a bit low on the long range - as is typically the case.
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There will be a chance for light rain or snow on Saturday/Saturday night. Uncertain on accumulation right now - check back for updates.
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Questions arrive on Saturday night into the Tuesday time frame of next week - that would be Christmas Eve into the 27th.
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Data is mixed on how this unfolds. Lot of ensemble data and world models show a big storm system moving into the Tennessee Valley and southern United States. How far west/northwest this system will push is the big question. Still days away.
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a still quite a few days away. I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride the GFS roller-coaster together!
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Click images for real view size - dates/times can be viewed at the top of each image . Click image for real view size (12z = around 6 to 7 am and 0z = around 6 or 7 pm)
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There is a system to monitor - and that is what I will continue to do. Chances for a White Christmas - 20% for now
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Here are the maps for Christmas Day and Monday - BIG storm developing to our south and east - where will it track. That is the question.
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Maps from www.wright-weather.com
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Thursday and Thursday night will bring another push of precipitation into our region - from the south. Right now it appears that it will be warm enough on Thursday and Thursday night for the precipitation to remain rain. Rainfall totals from that system should be less than 1" - will need to fine tune the totals as we draw closer to the event. Heavier totals are likely across the southern and southeastern portions of the region - could be heavy rains in Tennessee if the track is as I expect it to be.
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Rain should come to an end by Friday morning. Only a small chance for precipitation remains on Friday afternoon/night - as the system pulls away. Precipitation may end as a light mixture. Again - depending on storm track (see below)
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The precipitation on Thursday and Thursday night will be partly dependent on how far northwest the storm coming out of the southern United States pushes. There is major disagreement on this issue. Right now the European model has it far enough west that it covers most of our region with precipitation - however, if the storm were to trend further east/southeast then parts of the area may remain dry. Stay tuned for updates on this part of the forecast. Confidence is a bit low on the long range - as is typically the case.
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There will be a chance for light rain or snow on Saturday/Saturday night. Uncertain on accumulation right now - check back for updates.
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Questions arrive on Saturday night into the Tuesday time frame of next week - that would be Christmas Eve into the 27th.
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Data is mixed on how this unfolds. Lot of ensemble data and world models show a big storm system moving into the Tennessee Valley and southern United States. How far west/northwest this system will push is the big question. Still days away.
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a still quite a few days away. I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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.Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride the GFS roller-coaster together!
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Click images for real view size - dates/times can be viewed at the top of each image . Click image for real view size (12z = around 6 to 7 am and 0z = around 6 or 7 pm)
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There is a system to monitor - and that is what I will continue to do. Chances for a White Christmas - 20% for now
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Here are the maps for Christmas Day and Monday - BIG storm developing to our south and east - where will it track. That is the question.
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Maps from www.wright-weather.com
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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