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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for light rain and a slight chance of a mix of light rain/snow/sleet - northern counties may not experience any precipitation at all. Best chance for precipitation will be over the southern counties.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% - especially southern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Cloudy with light rain and sleet ending - sun may appear during the afternoon hours.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 38-44 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: North winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% - especially southern counties | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday night: Decreasing clouds.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Wind: Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Mostly sunny skies
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 45-48 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns - will monitor for some rain or frozen mix on Friday morning.
No
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The wild card in this forecast will center around how far north the rain moves on Friday morning. Then whether or not some of the rain will change over to some light sleet. Keep in mind that northern counties may not receive any precipitation. Better chances of rain as you move south in the region - far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
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If there were to be a mix of precipitation then it would likely be the northern portion of the precipitation shield
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Updated today's forecast - rain and sleet is ending. Moving out to the east.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A mix of precipitation is possible late tonight.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A mix of precipitation is possible late tonight.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Rain may mix with light sleet in some of our counties on Friday morning.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Clouds lingered over our region on Thursday - although a few patches of sun were noted from time to time. Cooler air moved in during the afternoon hours from the west. Winds gusted up to 20 mph along the cold front as it pushed through the area.
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Well above normal temperatures greeted us this morning with lows only in the 50s/60s - temperatures were starting to fall this afternoon (Thursday afternoon) behind a cold front. Not the coldest December on record - that is for sure. Many many many winter forecasts had December as being cold to very cold - has not worked out that way for our counties. Appears the rest of the month will be a mix of above and below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
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Here is today's anomalies - showing you how much above normal the temperatures were.
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The next weather maker is already showing up in Texas and Oklahoma - a band of showers and thunderstorms extended from far southwest Missouri into Oklahoma and Arkansas and finally down into central Texas. This band of showers and thunderstorms was moving northeast towards our region.
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Rain will return by late tonight (Thursday night) - this is especially true over the southern half of the region.
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Temperatures may be cold enough on Friday to cause some of the rain to mix with or change to sleet or snow. If that were to occur then accumulations would be light.
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Temperature profiles in the atmosphere are borderline for the rain to change to sleet or snow. Some uncertainty surrounds this part of the forecast.
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Northern parts of the area may not see any precipitation at all tonight or Friday morning. The further south you travel the better chance for precipitation.
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Here are the precipitation maps for the next few days - note that most of Sunday should remain dry. The Sunday precipitation map is indicating rain developing Sunday night. That is how I see it at this time.
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Note the sharp cutoff in precipitation from the north to south in our region.
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Here are the rainfall probabilities
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event. The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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This is for Thursday night and Friday (far northern counties will see the least amount of precipitation - far southern counties will see the most precipitation)
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FOR RAIN
There will be a 80% chance of 0.10-0.25" of rain falling - near certain chance - an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 0.25-0.50" of rain falling - good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - low chance of occurring- a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - a low chance of occurring - a two out of ten chance
There will be a 5% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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The next weather maker is already showing up in Texas and Oklahoma - a band of showers and thunderstorms extended from far southwest Missouri into Oklahoma and Arkansas and finally down into central Texas. This band of showers and thunderstorms was moving northeast towards our region.
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Rain will return by late tonight (Thursday night) - this is especially true over the southern half of the region.
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Temperatures may be cold enough on Friday to cause some of the rain to mix with or change to sleet or snow. If that were to occur then accumulations would be light.
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Temperature profiles in the atmosphere are borderline for the rain to change to sleet or snow. Some uncertainty surrounds this part of the forecast.
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Northern parts of the area may not see any precipitation at all tonight or Friday morning. The further south you travel the better chance for precipitation.
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Here are the precipitation maps for the next few days - note that most of Sunday should remain dry. The Sunday precipitation map is indicating rain developing Sunday night. That is how I see it at this time.
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Note the sharp cutoff in precipitation from the north to south in our region.
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Here are the rainfall probabilities
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event. The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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This is for Thursday night and Friday (far northern counties will see the least amount of precipitation - far southern counties will see the most precipitation)
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FOR RAIN
There will be a 80% chance of 0.10-0.25" of rain falling - near certain chance - an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 0.25-0.50" of rain falling - good chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - low chance of occurring- a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 0.75-1.00" of rain falling - a low chance of occurring - a two out of ten chance
There will be a 5% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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A mix of sleet and snow/rain will be possible late Thursday night and Friday morning - accumulations, if any, are forecast to be light.
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A mix of sleet and snow/rain will be possible late Thursday night and Friday morning - accumulations, if any, are forecast to be light.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 18th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday
Confidence in my forecast. High
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Date Range: December 23rd-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley - more below normal temperatures days vs above normal days.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses mixed in with above normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 18th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday
Confidence in my forecast. High
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Date Range: December 23rd-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley - more below normal temperatures days vs above normal days.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses mixed in with above normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Good chance of rain AGAIN (broken record) on Monday/Tuesday - rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00 appear likely. We need to fine tune those amounts as we move forward.
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Some of the new data indicates more rain chances by Thursday - a bit unsure about that - there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow - keeping precipitation chances alive every few days. Watch for updates in the coming days on each precipitation event.
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The next chance (if that wasn't enough for you) for rain or snow will be around next Friday/Saturday.
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a still quite a few days away. I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride the GFS roller-coaster together!
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Latest maps from www.wright-weather.com - shows the system and temperatures. I will keep the chances for a white Christmas at 10% - no change
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Click images for real view size - dates can be viewed at the top of each image . Click image for real view size
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Some of the new data indicates more rain chances by Thursday - a bit unsure about that - there are numerous disturbances moving through the flow - keeping precipitation chances alive every few days. Watch for updates in the coming days on each precipitation event.
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The next chance (if that wasn't enough for you) for rain or snow will be around next Friday/Saturday.
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a still quite a few days away. I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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.Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride the GFS roller-coaster together!
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Latest maps from www.wright-weather.com - shows the system and temperatures. I will keep the chances for a white Christmas at 10% - no change
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Click images for real view size - dates can be viewed at the top of each image . Click image for real view size
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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