Your Hometown Weather: December 5th-6th: Colder

December 5th - 6th, 2011
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Monday night: A chance for some light rain or a mix of light frozen precip. Some slick spots possible on bridges and overpasses. Black ice possible.
Below normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 30s - colder over our western counties | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold. A small chance for drizzle or a flurry. Some slick spots possible on bridges and overpasses. Black ice possible early in the day.
Below normal temperatures.

Highs: Upper 30s to lower 40s. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.05" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Some clearing. Chilly.
Below normal temperatures

Lows: Upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Cold.

Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 40 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Water will continue to rise on larger creeks and rivers during the upcoming days. Please check the latest lake and river stages if this is a concern for you.
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Please avoid flooded roadways. Watch for slick spots on area roadways later tonight and tomorrow morning.

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No wild cards!
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No major changes in the forecast.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No significant snow or ice. Some slicks spots possible tonight and Tuesday morning. Use caution - black ice possible.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No significant snow or ice. Watch for slick spots - black ice from overnight temperatures dropping below freezing.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: Wow - what a rain producer! Picked up over 5" of rain here in Massac County. Widespread 1-5" of rain across the region. Rivers and creeks are on the rise.
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Colder air is moving into the region - below normal temperatures will dominate for the next couple of weeks. Meaning - more days below normal than above.
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No significant precipitation (thankfully) through the weekend! I am still watching for the 14-18th time frame for a bigger system. That has been in the long range for awhile - see bottom of page.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED! Patchy light rain/drizzle/mixed precip.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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A chance for some very light sleet/rain mix tonight (Monday night) and Tuesday morning

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No significant precip expected.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium

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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures. Watching the system around the 13-16th - will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 18th - December 21st
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Removed the risk for Wednesday that we will monitoring - that system should be far enough east of us to not be of concern.
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Otherwise quiet weather - cold weather into the weekend. Watching the next system for later next week - plenty of time to monitor and update. Been a long few days - so that is all for now!

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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