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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain moving in from the south - very late (towards morning).
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.05-0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Rain. The best chance of rain will be over the eastern and southeastern half of the region - less chance of rain as you move northwest in the region. Higher amounts of rain the further south and east you go in the area.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 45-48 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 010"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Mostly cloudy - perhaps some clearing after midnight - cooler.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Calm winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly cloudy skies.
Near to below normal temperatures
Highs: around 45 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: ANOTHER cloudy day across the region - I have heard from some of you and I know you are tired of the clouds and rain. I can tell you that I am also tired of the clouds and rain - so are other local meteorologists. We could all use a little sunshine right about now.
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Rain overnight (Tuesday night) was heavier than expected over Kentucky and Tennessee - some areas reported 0.50-1.00" of rain.
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YET another rain maker is already knocking at our door and developing to our south. Rain will spread back into our local counties on Thursday morning and continue into Thursday afternoon. At this time the best chance of rain will be over the eastern and southeastern half of the region - say from Evansville down to Poplar Bluff. The northwest part of our region will see lesser amounts of rain and less widespread rain coverage.
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Here is the afternoon (Wednesday afternoon) water vapor satellite view - you can see the storm system developing to our south - this will move north overnight (Wednesday night) and spread rain back into the region on Thursday
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Rainfall totals from the Thursday storm system should be in the 0.10-0.50" range - best chance for the heavier amounts will be over far southern Illinois - Kentucky - Tennessee. Again the further south and east you go in the area the better chance for higher totals.
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Here are the precipitation maps for the next couple of days...
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Temperatures for the next few days will be above normal at night and below normal during the day
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Let's take a look at the departure maps - in other words how much above or below normal will temperatures be the next few days - not too far off the normal readings.
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Right now the latest data indicates Friday and Saturday will bring more clouds than sun - also just a slight chance of light precipitation. Not expecting anything of significant.
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HOPES OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS ARE FADING...
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Our Sunday storm is now on ALL of the model data - but it still appears just a little too far south and east of our region. It would take a significant shift northwest in order to bring snow or rain into most of our local counties. Will drop the chance for a white Christmas down from 20% to 10%. That means a 90% chance it won't be a white Christmas.
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I will continue to monitor the track of the Sunday storm - but again it would take a minor miracle to get it far enough west to cause problems. This afternoons data shows it impacting areas to our south and east. The new EC model is about the most west with the precipitation and it only gets it into Tennessee and areas east of here in Kentucky - central or southeastern.
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If the storm stays far enough south and east then we may even finally see some SUN on Sunday - Christmas Day. This will depend on the exact track of the southern storm system.
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Think it has been wet in our region over the last few weeks? You could be spot on - it has been wet over a large portion of the Ohio Valley
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: ANOTHER cloudy day across the region - I have heard from some of you and I know you are tired of the clouds and rain. I can tell you that I am also tired of the clouds and rain - so are other local meteorologists. We could all use a little sunshine right about now.
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Rain overnight (Tuesday night) was heavier than expected over Kentucky and Tennessee - some areas reported 0.50-1.00" of rain.
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YET another rain maker is already knocking at our door and developing to our south. Rain will spread back into our local counties on Thursday morning and continue into Thursday afternoon. At this time the best chance of rain will be over the eastern and southeastern half of the region - say from Evansville down to Poplar Bluff. The northwest part of our region will see lesser amounts of rain and less widespread rain coverage.
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Here is the afternoon (Wednesday afternoon) water vapor satellite view - you can see the storm system developing to our south - this will move north overnight (Wednesday night) and spread rain back into the region on Thursday
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Rainfall totals from the Thursday storm system should be in the 0.10-0.50" range - best chance for the heavier amounts will be over far southern Illinois - Kentucky - Tennessee. Again the further south and east you go in the area the better chance for higher totals.
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Here are the precipitation maps for the next couple of days...
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Let's take a look at the departure maps - in other words how much above or below normal will temperatures be the next few days - not too far off the normal readings.
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Right now the latest data indicates Friday and Saturday will bring more clouds than sun - also just a slight chance of light precipitation. Not expecting anything of significant.
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HOPES OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS ARE FADING...
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Our Sunday storm is now on ALL of the model data - but it still appears just a little too far south and east of our region. It would take a significant shift northwest in order to bring snow or rain into most of our local counties. Will drop the chance for a white Christmas down from 20% to 10%. That means a 90% chance it won't be a white Christmas.
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I will continue to monitor the track of the Sunday storm - but again it would take a minor miracle to get it far enough west to cause problems. This afternoons data shows it impacting areas to our south and east. The new EC model is about the most west with the precipitation and it only gets it into Tennessee and areas east of here in Kentucky - central or southeastern.
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If the storm stays far enough south and east then we may even finally see some SUN on Sunday - Christmas Day. This will depend on the exact track of the southern storm system.
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Think it has been wet in our region over the last few weeks? You could be spot on - it has been wet over a large portion of the Ohio Valley
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in our forecast...
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No snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 18th - December 24th
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday/Friday
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 25th-26th
Event: Storm system for the Tennessee Valley - southward
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 18th - December 24th
Event: Precipitation events
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-0.80" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system - another chance for precipitation around Thursday/Friday
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 25th-26th
Event: Storm system for the Tennessee Valley - southward
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation events.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: A mix of below and above normal temperatures - no strong signal for persistent cold
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Well - December is almost over and most of us have not experienced any significant snows. Disappointing for some - happy for others!
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Remember what I have said over the last few months about blocking? We need blocking in the Atlantic in order to force the sustained cold down into our region - we have not see that blocking so far during December - thus we have not had sustained cold. We have had quite a few days with below normal temperatures - but the solid cold has remained north.
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The rest of the winter will struggle if we don't start to see some blocking. This is probably a more typical La Nina winter vs what happened last year. A repeat of last year is going to be hard to come by based on the lack of blocking. We will see how the coming weeks end up on that subject.
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The storm system I have been talking above for over a month will likely pass to our south - more in the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf Coast.
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Here are the latest models - NAM and GFS - you can see the storm system to our south. These images are from www.wright-weather.com
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Bottom line...
A storm system may develop to our west and south on Saturday into Sunday - this system will spread moisture northward into Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, parts of south central and southeast Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
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The system should stay far enough south to cause little impact in our region - it would take a BIG shift northwest to spread precipitation into our counties.
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Will drop the chance for a white Christmas down to 10% from 20% - 10% might be generous. Again - it would take a BIG shift northwest to change the forecast. Not impossible but the odds are not in our favor.
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I will be watching another disturbance for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame - data is mixed on this storm, as well. Whether it is far enough north to impact our region will need to be looked at over the next few days.
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Temperatures this coming weekend into next week will be cool - seasonable temperatures.
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Remember what I have said over the last few months about blocking? We need blocking in the Atlantic in order to force the sustained cold down into our region - we have not see that blocking so far during December - thus we have not had sustained cold. We have had quite a few days with below normal temperatures - but the solid cold has remained north.
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The rest of the winter will struggle if we don't start to see some blocking. This is probably a more typical La Nina winter vs what happened last year. A repeat of last year is going to be hard to come by based on the lack of blocking. We will see how the coming weeks end up on that subject.
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The storm system I have been talking above for over a month will likely pass to our south - more in the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf Coast.
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Here are the latest models - NAM and GFS - you can see the storm system to our south. These images are from www.wright-weather.com
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Bottom line...
A storm system may develop to our west and south on Saturday into Sunday - this system will spread moisture northward into Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, parts of south central and southeast Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
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The system should stay far enough south to cause little impact in our region - it would take a BIG shift northwest to spread precipitation into our counties.
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Will drop the chance for a white Christmas down to 10% from 20% - 10% might be generous. Again - it would take a BIG shift northwest to change the forecast. Not impossible but the odds are not in our favor.
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I will be watching another disturbance for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame - data is mixed on this storm, as well. Whether it is far enough north to impact our region will need to be looked at over the next few days.
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Temperatures this coming weekend into next week will be cool - seasonable temperatures.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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