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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower - drizzle and fog at times.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 40s - rising temps late | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Cloudy and warmer. Some morning fog possible - a few showers possible.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 65 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely - a few heavy downpours possible.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - Near 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.60" (before 7 am)
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - Near 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.60" (before 7 am)
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Clouds. Showers and thunderstorms possible - especially early in the day. Then cloudy and turning cooler with a few showers in the afternoon.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 58 degrees and then falling later in the day | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 70% early in the day and 40% in the afternoon | Rainfall totals: After 7 AM - 0.10-0.40"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder possible
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder possible
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Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder possible
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: We awoke this morning to a widespread rain event that was not forecast well. Rain was supposed to be a bit more spotty today - instead we had widespread coverage. A bit of a surprise. Quite a bit of fog, as well.
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Today's precipitation map shows the big storm system covering quite a bit of real estate!
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Clouds will linger in the region as move through the day on Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Wednesday night and Thursday. This front will be accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are not forecast to be severe.
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Check out today's water vapor satellite image - you can see the busy subtropical jet stream pulling moisture (once again) into the central United States
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Rainfall amounts (Wednesday into Thursday) should be in the 0.40-0.70" range - a few spots will likely pick up less and a few spots may see locally heavier amounts. That is an average range.
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Rain showers may continue on Friday - lighter precipitation. If that were to occur then rainfall totals on Friday would be less than 0.25". It wouldn't take much to make Friday's precipitation be frozen - there will be a sharp temperature gradient from north to south - this will need to be monitored.
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Friday will be cold with below normal temperatures.
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You can see here on FRIDAY'S map that most of the precip is to our south - but it does try to nudge into our southern counties.
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The front will stall to our south over the weekend - that means we will likely see a return of the rain by late on Sunday or Monday as the next storm system moves in from the west. There is major disagreements on the models as to just when the rain returns. See extended discussion.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: We awoke this morning to a widespread rain event that was not forecast well. Rain was supposed to be a bit more spotty today - instead we had widespread coverage. A bit of a surprise. Quite a bit of fog, as well.
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Today's precipitation map shows the big storm system covering quite a bit of real estate!
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Clouds will linger in the region as move through the day on Wednesday. A cold front will approach on Wednesday night and Thursday. This front will be accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are not forecast to be severe.
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Check out today's water vapor satellite image - you can see the busy subtropical jet stream pulling moisture (once again) into the central United States
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Rainfall amounts (Wednesday into Thursday) should be in the 0.40-0.70" range - a few spots will likely pick up less and a few spots may see locally heavier amounts. That is an average range.
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Rain showers may continue on Friday - lighter precipitation. If that were to occur then rainfall totals on Friday would be less than 0.25". It wouldn't take much to make Friday's precipitation be frozen - there will be a sharp temperature gradient from north to south - this will need to be monitored.
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Friday will be cold with below normal temperatures.
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You can see here on FRIDAY'S map that most of the precip is to our south - but it does try to nudge into our southern counties.
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The front will stall to our south over the weekend - that means we will likely see a return of the rain by late on Sunday or Monday as the next storm system moves in from the west. There is major disagreements on the models as to just when the rain returns. See extended discussion.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in our forecast...
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No snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 18th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-1.00" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 23rd-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses mixed in with above normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 18th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures. Rainfall of 0.40-1.00" possible with the Monday/Tuesday system
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 23rd-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses mixed in with above normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3-5 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and perhaps below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The extended forecast appears more wet than white! More rain is possible on Friday - scattered showers - especially over the southern half of our region. Will need to monitor this time period as there is some disagreement on just where the boundary ends up.
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A larger storm system is still in the cards for Sunday night through Tuesday - perhaps most of that rain will fall on Monday/Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00 possible. Still some time to tweak those numbers.
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Here is what the precipitation map looks like for Monday
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Another storm system is still in the cards for around the 23rd-26th - I have been thinking within 48 hours of Christmas in my updates over the last couple of weeks. Still questions remain on temperatures. Will it be cold enough for snow?
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a LONG LONG way off - I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride the GFS roller-coaster together! The GFS model is showing precipitation both days - and is now colder
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Bottom line on today's model data is that the storm is still there - track has changed - Christmas Eve is a bit colder - cold air is near the region - even colder on Christmas day.
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Latest maps from www.wright-weather.com - shows the storm and temperatures. I will keep the chances for a white Christmas at 10% - no change
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There is some other data that indicates a much larger system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico around Christmas - this has been shown in the GFS on and off and also the European models. Something to keep in mind - just showing you one set of data - from many sets of data. The idea of a storm has been there for a long time now - it is the details that have to be worked out.
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It is possible a low comes out of the Gulf of Mexico and if it travels to our south and east then a significant storm event is possible with wintry precipitation - it would have to track JUST right and that would assume the cold air would be in place. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the 23rd-26th unfolds.
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Click images for real view size - dates can be viewed at the top of each image - first three are surface maps - precipitation. The last three maps are temperatures.
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The official 8 to 14 day outlook indicates above normal precipitation in our region around Christmas. That is some good news - now we just need the cold air to make that precipitation show.
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A larger storm system is still in the cards for Sunday night through Tuesday - perhaps most of that rain will fall on Monday/Tuesday. Rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00 possible. Still some time to tweak those numbers.
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Here is what the precipitation map looks like for Monday
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Another storm system is still in the cards for around the 23rd-26th - I have been thinking within 48 hours of Christmas in my updates over the last couple of weeks. Still questions remain on temperatures. Will it be cold enough for snow?
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a LONG LONG way off - I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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.Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride the GFS roller-coaster together! The GFS model is showing precipitation both days - and is now colder
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Bottom line on today's model data is that the storm is still there - track has changed - Christmas Eve is a bit colder - cold air is near the region - even colder on Christmas day.
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Latest maps from www.wright-weather.com - shows the storm and temperatures. I will keep the chances for a white Christmas at 10% - no change
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There is some other data that indicates a much larger system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico around Christmas - this has been shown in the GFS on and off and also the European models. Something to keep in mind - just showing you one set of data - from many sets of data. The idea of a storm has been there for a long time now - it is the details that have to be worked out.
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It is possible a low comes out of the Gulf of Mexico and if it travels to our south and east then a significant storm event is possible with wintry precipitation - it would have to track JUST right and that would assume the cold air would be in place. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the 23rd-26th unfolds.
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Click images for real view size - dates can be viewed at the top of each image - first three are surface maps - precipitation. The last three maps are temperatures.
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The official 8 to 14 day outlook indicates above normal precipitation in our region around Christmas. That is some good news - now we just need the cold air to make that precipitation show.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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