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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Flood watch is in effect. Rain - rain may be heavy at times. Flood watch is in effect..
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: REMIND everyone to avoid flooded roadways during their morning commute - teenagers and students - good to remind. Flood watch is in effect. Rain likely. Rain may be heavy at times - especially before 2 pm. Turning colder and breezy - rain may mix with sleet and snow.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: temps steady or falling during the day into the 30s. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Flood watch is in effect. A chance for rain and showers - rain may be mixed with sleet or snow late at night. No accumulation expected in far southern Illinois or western Kentucky.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 33 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.30"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.30"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Cloudy and cold. A slight chance for drizzle, snow flurries, or sleet.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 42 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is moderate
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Rain - rain and more rain. Please avoid flooded roadways - remind students on Monday morning to avoid flooded roadways.
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Also area rivers are in the rise and will continue to rise - for the latest lake and river stages - click here.
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Please avoid flooded roadways - remind students on Monday morning to avoid flooded roadways.
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The wild card in this updated forecast will be whether we see a bit of a rain, snow, and sleet mix on Monday night or Tuesday. Accumulations are NOT expected at this time - through Tuesday afternoon.
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No major changes in the forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A mix of snow and sleet possible at times.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No significant snow or ice - light mix possible.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No significant snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: If you are traveling further west/northwest in Missouri or Illinois then check ahead during the Monday into Monday night time frame. Rain will change to sleet, snow, and freezing rain in some counties. Most likely this would be from West Plains, Missouri to near Belleville, Illinois. Check the Springfield, MO or St Louis, MO National Weather Service Offices for point and click forecasts in the counties you are traveling through. You can also find those forecasts here. Just enter your zip code.
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The big story for the rest of us will be rain and lots of rain. Some areas have already picked up 1-2" of rain since earlier this Sunday morning. Creeks and streams are on the rise - fields have a lot of standing water in them - water will likely be a cause of concern during Monday morning in some of our counties.
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Please remind students not to drive through flooded roadways.
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Here is the water vapor satellite view - you can see moisture streaming out of the Pacific Ocean into Mexico and then into our region. MOIST storm - to say the least. You can view this image yourself on our web-site. Click here for satellite views.
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The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for many of our counties. You can view more information about that flood watch by visiting this link. Just click down to your state and county - then you can read the details of the flood watch.
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Bottom line - another 1-3" of rain will likely fall tonight (Sunday night) into Monday afternoon across much of our area. Rivers and creeks will rise. Some flooding is possible.
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Colder air has already started moving into the region from the west. This will cause the rain to mix with sleet and snow in our fat western counties of southeast Missouri. The rest of us could see some mixture on Monday night and Tuesday - however we are NOT expecting anything significant in far southern Illinois or western Kentucky. As always I will monitor and update if anything changes.
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Tuesday into Tuesday night will bring clouds and cold weather - as a matter of fact the cold weather will last right on into next week. The first half of December will be cold with below normal temperatures.
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See the long range for more details...
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There is chance of some precipitation on Wednesday/Thursday as another low pressure areas moves to our south/southeast. This part of the forecast will need to be monitored and updated for changes. It appears the BEST chance for frozen precipitation with that system would be just to our east/southeast.
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There is quite a bit of energy left in the southwest to move northeast on Wednesday - which does have my attention. However, with the front pushing far enough east it may be that this system would develop a bit too far east to have serious impacts on our region. Will monitor and update on Monday.
The probabilities forecast for the ongoing rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Tuesday). The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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Remember this is spread out over southeast Missouri - southern Illinois - into western Kentucky - the higher totals will be near the Ohio River - if you live near the Ohio River area and along the Mississippi River into the Missouri Bootheel then you have the best shot at higher rainfall totals.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.75-1.25" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 1.25-1.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.75-2.00" of rain falling - a medium chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 2.00-2.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.50-3.00" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 3.00-5.00" of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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The best chance for the higher numbers would be along a line from Evansville, Indiana to the Missouri Bootheel and then 50 miles either side of that line.
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Here are the 12 hour precipitation maps starting this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday afternoon - you can see the time stamps at the top of each image. This gives you a broad-brushed rough idea of what to expect.
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HEADLINE: If you are traveling further west/northwest in Missouri or Illinois then check ahead during the Monday into Monday night time frame. Rain will change to sleet, snow, and freezing rain in some counties. Most likely this would be from West Plains, Missouri to near Belleville, Illinois. Check the Springfield, MO or St Louis, MO National Weather Service Offices for point and click forecasts in the counties you are traveling through. You can also find those forecasts here. Just enter your zip code.
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The big story for the rest of us will be rain and lots of rain. Some areas have already picked up 1-2" of rain since earlier this Sunday morning. Creeks and streams are on the rise - fields have a lot of standing water in them - water will likely be a cause of concern during Monday morning in some of our counties.
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Please remind students not to drive through flooded roadways.
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Here is the water vapor satellite view - you can see moisture streaming out of the Pacific Ocean into Mexico and then into our region. MOIST storm - to say the least. You can view this image yourself on our web-site. Click here for satellite views.
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The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for many of our counties. You can view more information about that flood watch by visiting this link. Just click down to your state and county - then you can read the details of the flood watch.
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Bottom line - another 1-3" of rain will likely fall tonight (Sunday night) into Monday afternoon across much of our area. Rivers and creeks will rise. Some flooding is possible.
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Colder air has already started moving into the region from the west. This will cause the rain to mix with sleet and snow in our fat western counties of southeast Missouri. The rest of us could see some mixture on Monday night and Tuesday - however we are NOT expecting anything significant in far southern Illinois or western Kentucky. As always I will monitor and update if anything changes.
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Tuesday into Tuesday night will bring clouds and cold weather - as a matter of fact the cold weather will last right on into next week. The first half of December will be cold with below normal temperatures.
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See the long range for more details...
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There is chance of some precipitation on Wednesday/Thursday as another low pressure areas moves to our south/southeast. This part of the forecast will need to be monitored and updated for changes. It appears the BEST chance for frozen precipitation with that system would be just to our east/southeast.
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There is quite a bit of energy left in the southwest to move northeast on Wednesday - which does have my attention. However, with the front pushing far enough east it may be that this system would develop a bit too far east to have serious impacts on our region. Will monitor and update on Monday.
The probabilities forecast for the ongoing rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Tuesday). The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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Remember this is spread out over southeast Missouri - southern Illinois - into western Kentucky - the higher totals will be near the Ohio River - if you live near the Ohio River area and along the Mississippi River into the Missouri Bootheel then you have the best shot at higher rainfall totals.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.50-0.75" of rain falling - near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.75-1.25" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 1.25-1.75" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.75-2.00" of rain falling - a medium chance of occurring - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 2.00-2.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.50-3.00" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 3.00-5.00" of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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The best chance for the higher numbers would be along a line from Evansville, Indiana to the Missouri Bootheel and then 50 miles either side of that line.
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Here are the 12 hour precipitation maps starting this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday afternoon - you can see the time stamps at the top of each image. This gives you a broad-brushed rough idea of what to expect.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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A small chance for a mix of rain, snow, and sleet over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky on Monday afternoon and Tuesday - significant accumulations or problems are not expected. Another chance of snow may arrive on Wednesday - watch for updates.
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A small chance for a mix of rain, snow, and sleet over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky on Monday afternoon and Tuesday - significant accumulations or problems are not expected. Another chance of snow may arrive on Wednesday - watch for updates.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 9th-11th for a precip event - cold front but low chance of precipitation.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Low chance of precip on the 9th-11th
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 9th-11th for a precip event - cold front but low chance of precipitation.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Low chance of precip on the 9th-11th
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 6th - December 7th
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Rain ending as a mix
Details: Rain may end as a mix of sleet and snow over our region on Monday night and Tuesday. Little or no accumulation is forecast. Another disturbance passes near our region on Wednesday - some chance it may spread precipitation into our southern counties. Will monitor and update.
Confidence in my forecast: Moderate
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 16th - December 20th
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Rain ending as a mix
Details: Rain may end as a mix of sleet and snow over our region on Monday night and Tuesday. Little or no accumulation is forecast. Another disturbance passes near our region on Wednesday - some chance it may spread precipitation into our southern counties. Will monitor and update.
Confidence in my forecast: Moderate
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 16th - December 20th
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The long range will consist of plenty of cold weather, as expected. The next significant storm system may be around the 16th-19th - watching those dates. Too soon to make a call on precipitation type.
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With all of this cold air - hopefully we can squeeze out a few flakes here and there. Would be a waste of cold air, otherwise!
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With all of this cold air - hopefully we can squeeze out a few flakes here and there. Would be a waste of cold air, otherwise!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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