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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: Becoming mostly cloudy. Not as cold. Fog possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Cloudy with rain likely. Fog.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 55 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.30"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Cloudy with a few showers possible.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"-0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"-0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Clouds. Light shower possible.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 60 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Monday wasn't too bad - a bit cool - below normal temperatures for the most part. We are moving back up towards the normal mark.
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The next weather maker will start to influence our weather on Tuesday into Thursday. A warm front will push through the region with a few showers on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then a cold front will move through on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring another widespread rain event to our local counties. Rainfall totals will not be overly impressive. Appears that 0.40-0.80" of rain will fall in our region. Would not be surprised if some counties received less than those amounts.
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Questions remain concerning the weekend. Most of the data has now backed off of a wet Friday and Saturday - remember when I said models were in chaos? Well - they still are. But trends are for Friday and Saturday to remain dry - I will go along with that for now.
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We should see another increase in rain on Sunday night into Tuesday of next week. Possible some heavy downpours. This will depend on how fast the system in the southwest actually ejects out into our region.
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As far as frozen precipitation - I don't see anything right now that lends itself to frozen. Will continue to monitor and update. I know some of you want snow.
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The updated Christmas forecast can be viewed in the extended part of the forecast.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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HEADLINE: Monday wasn't too bad - a bit cool - below normal temperatures for the most part. We are moving back up towards the normal mark.
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The next weather maker will start to influence our weather on Tuesday into Thursday. A warm front will push through the region with a few showers on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then a cold front will move through on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring another widespread rain event to our local counties. Rainfall totals will not be overly impressive. Appears that 0.40-0.80" of rain will fall in our region. Would not be surprised if some counties received less than those amounts.
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Questions remain concerning the weekend. Most of the data has now backed off of a wet Friday and Saturday - remember when I said models were in chaos? Well - they still are. But trends are for Friday and Saturday to remain dry - I will go along with that for now.
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We should see another increase in rain on Sunday night into Tuesday of next week. Possible some heavy downpours. This will depend on how fast the system in the southwest actually ejects out into our region.
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As far as frozen precipitation - I don't see anything right now that lends itself to frozen. Will continue to monitor and update. I know some of you want snow.
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The updated Christmas forecast can be viewed in the extended part of the forecast.
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in our forecast...
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No snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 18th - December 23rd
Event: Precipitation event - significant storm system possible.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible - watching the 14th-16th time period for one event - right now data is showing a rain event. Another event around the 18th (onward).
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events, Locally heavy rain again possible.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
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Date Range: December 18th - December 23rd
Event: Precipitation event - significant storm system possible.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region. A mix of above and below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 24th-29th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 26th-January 15th
Event: Potential for bitterly cold air masses
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: 3 potential precipitation events
Details: Potential precipitation event and below normal temperatures. Uncertainty surrounds the NAO going negative - some blocking in the Atlantic.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Long range - most of the data now shows a dry weekend - front stays just far enough south to keep us dry until perhaps Sunday night or Monday - then more rain develops. Too warm for snow it would appear.
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Our Christmas Eve storm is still in the charts - today's data shows rain - too warm for snow. Perhaps ending as flurries. Again this is so far out that all we can do is speculate at this point. See below for maps :)
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a LONG LONG way off - I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride this roller-coaster together! The GFS is showing precipitation both days - and is warmer. At least there is a storm to watch!
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Bottom line on today's model data is that the storm is still there - track has changed - Christmas Eve is a bit warmer - cold air is near the region - colder on Christmas day.
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Latest maps from www.wright-weather.com - shows the storm and temperatures. I will keep the chances for a white Christmas at 10% - no change
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Our Christmas Eve storm is still in the charts - today's data shows rain - too warm for snow. Perhaps ending as flurries. Again this is so far out that all we can do is speculate at this point. See below for maps :)
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AND I promised you we would take a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
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Here is what the GFS is showing - again this is a LONG LONG way off - I call this fantasy land for models because their accuracy beyond day 4 or 5 is very low. Let's monitor it each day or two and see where it goes. Again maps are from www.wright-weather.com and click the image for full view size.
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.Check back in again tomorrow - let's see how it has changed. We will ride this roller-coaster together! The GFS is showing precipitation both days - and is warmer. At least there is a storm to watch!
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Bottom line on today's model data is that the storm is still there - track has changed - Christmas Eve is a bit warmer - cold air is near the region - colder on Christmas day.
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Latest maps from www.wright-weather.com - shows the storm and temperatures. I will keep the chances for a white Christmas at 10% - no change
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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