December 30th-31st - some wind - mild Saturday then colder

December 30th-31st, 2011
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night:  A few clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Wind:  Southwest winds at 5-15 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday:  A mix of sun and some clouds  
Well above normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 56-60 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Saturday night:  Increasing clouds with a slight chance for a shower
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.
Wind:  West at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%  Rainfall totals: 0.10" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds - windy - colder
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 40-45 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10-30 mph  
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:  0" 
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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Gusty winds during the weekend


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No - boaters may want to use caution on Sunday with the gusty winds

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No wild cards in this forecast
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No major changes in the forecast.
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No snow in the forecast...


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Friday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Saturday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:  No major changes from previous forecast thoughts - much colder on Sunday into Tuesday - then a mix of above and below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.  Out of town - short update :)
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Rivers will remain high - see the latest lake and river stage forecasts - here.

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 





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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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No significant rainfall expected - light shower possible Saturday night



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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No snow in our forecast...

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.




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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  December 29th-January 7th
Event:  Strong cold front - pushes through on Sunday.  Then colder air.   Above normal temperatures weekend into Saturday night (New Years Eve) then below normal temperatures for several days.  Front on Sunday has a low chance for producing precipitation - overall first week of January appears to be leaning towards BELOW normal precipitation.
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Strong cold front followed by below normal temperatures - below normal temperatures may last into the first week of January - data indicates our region may ride the warmer vs colder air masses - will have to monitor for timing of both.  Could be swings in temperature averages from below to above normal.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium 
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Date Range:  January 6th-20th
Event:  Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold.  Trends are towards several  cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  Possibly 2-3 precipitation events.  Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk:  Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possibly
Details:  Potential for some swings in the weather. 
Confidence in my forecast:  Low

 

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  On holiday - nothing exciting to talk about in the short or medium range - becomes more active as we push a bit further into January
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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