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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Rain developing very late.
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 90% late | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.30" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Flood watch is in effect. Rain likely. Details on the flood watch - click here
Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 55 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph - switching to the west late in the day.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.00" locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: A flood watch is in effect. Rain likely. Locally heavy rain possible.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% mostly late at night | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.50" locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% mostly late at night | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.50" locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: A flood watch is in effect. Rain likely - colder.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 44-48 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.00" Locally heavier amounts possible.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A lot of rain for the region. Starting late tonight into Tuesday. Some additional rises on area rivers will occur. Small stream and creeks may flood in some counties. Low land flooding possible in some areas. Please avoid flooded roadways - remind students on Monday morning to avoid flooded roadways.
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Please avoid flooded roadways. Let us know your rainfall totals. Report flooded roads to local law enforcement.
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The wild card in this forecast will be just how much rain falls. A widespread 1-3" rainfall event is likely with pockets of 3-5"+ in some counties.
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Added the flood watch from the National Weather Service
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Here we go again with more rain in the forecast. The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for a large portion of the region from Sunday morning into Monday night.
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A flood watch means that some river and stream flooding will be possible along with low land flooding. Some roads may flood, as well. Additional rises on the larger rivers will occur over the coming days. Right now the National Weather Service believes that the flooding along the Ohio River will mainly remain in the minor to moderate range. See river and lake stage forecasts - click here.
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The rain will be spread out over the entire forecast period from late Saturday night into Tuesday morning. This is the only good news in the forecast. Training thunderstorms are also NOT in the forecast. Make that two points of good news!
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Here is the flood watch outline - note the bright green areas are river flood warnings. Portions of the Ohio River are flooding. You can read more about the flood warnings by clicking here. Click your county once you arrive on the site
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The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has also issued a Multi-media web-briefing - concerning the flood watch. You can view that by clicking here.
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Rain will develop later tonight (Saturday night) and will continue into Monday night. Rain will mix with snow or change to snow over our far northwest counties on Monday into Tuesday. Mostly along and west of a line from Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - the further west and northwest you travel the better odds of seeing some snowflakes. Probably could scoot that line a bit further west from say West Plains to Belleville, Illinois (Monday into Monday night). See the St Louis, MO NWS and Springfield, MO NWS offices for more details on that particular subject.
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Some mix of rain and snow will be possible over our entire area late on Monday night and Tuesday.
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Thunderstorms are not forecast with this event - severe weather is not a concern. Flooding is the concern. River and streams will rise considerably over the coming days. Low land flooding will also be a problem. Some streets or problem areas that commonly experience flooding may flood. Remember to avoid flooded roadways.
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Colder weather will arrive behind the cold front starting as early as tomorrow (Sunday). The rest of the week will be chilly - this cold weather should last right on into next week, as well. A chilly 10 day period ahead of us with mostly below normal temperatures. As expected.
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There will be a chance for a mix of sleet, snow, and rain on Tuesday across the entire region - little or no accumulation is forecast for far southern Illinois or western Kentucky. Will monitor for any changes, as always. There is some model disagreement on how the Monday night into Wednesday time frame unfolds.
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The next cold front arrives next Friday and Saturday - could be some rain/snow with the front. Right now the upper levels appear quite dry - however, the EC model is spitting out a snow event for some of our counties. Plenty of time to monitor and update that part of the forecast.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Tuesday). This is for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.50-1.00" of rain falling - near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 1.50-2.00" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 2.00-2.50" of rain falling - a likely chance of occurring - a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 2.50-3.00" of rain falling - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 3.00-3.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 3.50-5.00" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 5.00-6.00" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
There will be a 5% chance of 6"+ of rain falling
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Remember these numbers are for the entire rainfall event - late Saturday night through Tuesday.
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Precipitation maps for the next few days - WET
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HEADLINE: Here we go again with more rain in the forecast. The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for a large portion of the region from Sunday morning into Monday night.
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A flood watch means that some river and stream flooding will be possible along with low land flooding. Some roads may flood, as well. Additional rises on the larger rivers will occur over the coming days. Right now the National Weather Service believes that the flooding along the Ohio River will mainly remain in the minor to moderate range. See river and lake stage forecasts - click here.
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The rain will be spread out over the entire forecast period from late Saturday night into Tuesday morning. This is the only good news in the forecast. Training thunderstorms are also NOT in the forecast. Make that two points of good news!
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Here is the flood watch outline - note the bright green areas are river flood warnings. Portions of the Ohio River are flooding. You can read more about the flood warnings by clicking here. Click your county once you arrive on the site
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The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has also issued a Multi-media web-briefing - concerning the flood watch. You can view that by clicking here.
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Rain will develop later tonight (Saturday night) and will continue into Monday night. Rain will mix with snow or change to snow over our far northwest counties on Monday into Tuesday. Mostly along and west of a line from Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - the further west and northwest you travel the better odds of seeing some snowflakes. Probably could scoot that line a bit further west from say West Plains to Belleville, Illinois (Monday into Monday night). See the St Louis, MO NWS and Springfield, MO NWS offices for more details on that particular subject.
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Some mix of rain and snow will be possible over our entire area late on Monday night and Tuesday.
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Thunderstorms are not forecast with this event - severe weather is not a concern. Flooding is the concern. River and streams will rise considerably over the coming days. Low land flooding will also be a problem. Some streets or problem areas that commonly experience flooding may flood. Remember to avoid flooded roadways.
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Colder weather will arrive behind the cold front starting as early as tomorrow (Sunday). The rest of the week will be chilly - this cold weather should last right on into next week, as well. A chilly 10 day period ahead of us with mostly below normal temperatures. As expected.
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There will be a chance for a mix of sleet, snow, and rain on Tuesday across the entire region - little or no accumulation is forecast for far southern Illinois or western Kentucky. Will monitor for any changes, as always. There is some model disagreement on how the Monday night into Wednesday time frame unfolds.
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The next cold front arrives next Friday and Saturday - could be some rain/snow with the front. Right now the upper levels appear quite dry - however, the EC model is spitting out a snow event for some of our counties. Plenty of time to monitor and update that part of the forecast.
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The probabilities forecast for this next rain event - for the entire event (Saturday night through Tuesday). This is for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
There will be a 100% chance of 0.50-1.00" of rain falling - near certain chance - a ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 1.00-1.50" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 1.50-2.00" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 70% chance of 2.00-2.50" of rain falling - a likely chance of occurring - a seven out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 2.50-3.00" of rain falling - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 40% chance of 3.00-3.50" of rain falling - a four out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 3.50-5.00" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 10% chance of 5.00-6.00" of rain falling - a one out of ten chance
There will be a 5% chance of 6"+ of rain falling
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Remember these numbers are for the entire rainfall event - late Saturday night through Tuesday.
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Precipitation maps for the next few days - WET
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours - in graphical format. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Another view of this precipitation event - click image for full view size
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in the forecast through Monday afternoon in our local counties - a change to snow is possible over the western parts of southeast MO on Monday into Tuesday. This may especially be true in the hilly regions and areas in the Springfield and St Louis, National Weather Service Forecast Regions.
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Snow is not in the forecast through Monday afternoon in our local counties - a change to snow is possible over the western parts of southeast MO on Monday into Tuesday. This may especially be true in the hilly regions and areas in the Springfield and St Louis, National Weather Service Forecast Regions.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal to much below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Watching the 10th or 11th for a precip event.
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: December 3rd - December 5th
Event: Near normal temperatures with rain - gusty winds - locally heavy rain possible in some counties
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather. Thunder possible.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Precipitation - most likely rain - could end as mixed precip on Monday/Tuesday.
Details: Cold front with rain likely
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: December 6th - December 7th
Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Rain ending as a mix
Details: Rain may end as a mix of sleet and snow over our region on Monday night and Tuesday. Little or no accumulation is forecast.
Confidence in my forecast: Moderate
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 16th - December 20th
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
. Event: Precipitation event
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Rain ending as a mix
Details: Rain may end as a mix of sleet and snow over our region on Monday night and Tuesday. Little or no accumulation is forecast.
Confidence in my forecast: Moderate
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Date Range: December 11th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to well below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type. Arctic outbreak possible - with very cold temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Date Range: December 16th - December 20th
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. We had a lot to cover in the short range - not much to add to the long range. Everything is on track for the below to much below normal temperatures over the coming two week period. Whether we can squeeze one or two snow events out of this pattern - we shall see.
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The models show a snow event here on Wednesday and Thursday - however, we are discounting that data for the time being. The front should be progressive enough that if another low pressure does form then it should be far enough east to not cause concern in southern Illinois or western Kentucky. Of course I will monitor and update if changes need to be made.
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The next cold front arrives on Friday and Saturday. EC model wants to throw out an inch or two of snow in our counties. Other models paint light precip. Will keep an eye on it and update through the week.
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Beyond this coming week it appears that a lot of cold weather is in store for the region. Still watching for the potential of another precipitation event around the 16th-20th.
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The models show a snow event here on Wednesday and Thursday - however, we are discounting that data for the time being. The front should be progressive enough that if another low pressure does form then it should be far enough east to not cause concern in southern Illinois or western Kentucky. Of course I will monitor and update if changes need to be made.
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The next cold front arrives on Friday and Saturday. EC model wants to throw out an inch or two of snow in our counties. Other models paint light precip. Will keep an eye on it and update through the week.
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Beyond this coming week it appears that a lot of cold weather is in store for the region. Still watching for the potential of another precipitation event around the 16th-20th.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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