Thursday evening into Friday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Increasing clouds - a slight chance for mixed precipitation towards the morning hours - mainly over southeast Missouri. Otherwise cloudy and cool.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: Trace
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly cloudy with some light rain - rain may begin as a mixture of snow and sleet.
Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
Highs: around 45 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Rain ending in the evening - possibly as light snow or flurries. Becoming partly cloudy with more seasonable temperatures.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies. Cold.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 28-32 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns
Probably not - some mixed precipitation on Friday morning not out of the question in some counties - but this is not forecast to cause significant problems.
Wild card in this forecast will be whether or not some snowflakes will fall over far southern IL and western KY on Friday - looks like a rain event for most of us with a rain/snow mix possible during the morning hours in the Missouri Ozarks. There is a chance if the precipitation moves in early enough that it may be mixed with sleet and snow over parts of our area.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast - some mixture possible Friday morning...
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Snow chances increase on Monday - some accumulation will be possible...
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Snow chances increase on Monday - some accumulation will be possible...
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Updated the snow part of the forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Light mixed precipitation possible over southeast Missouri late tonight.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Light mixed precipitation possible over southeast Missouri late tonight.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some light mix possible over some counties on Friday - mainly the Ozarks of southeast Missouri.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Could be a flurry.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - uncertain
Thursday - uncertain
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Colder air has moved into the region and will last into early next week. There will be a couple of disturbances moving through the flow. These disturbances will cause precipitation to develop late Thursday night and Friday morning - this will end on Friday afternoon and early evening.
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Most of the precipitation will fall as rain, however, if the precipitation moves in early enough there could be a mix of snow and sleet over parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky - a mix of rain/snow will be possible as the rain comes to an end on Friday afternoon and evening. Little or no accumulation is expected from this system.
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Saturday should bring quite a few clouds - clearing is more likely on Sunday. Cold temperatures will prevail on both Saturday and Sunday - temperatures may not get out of the 20s and lower 30s on Saturday. Brrrr
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Another disturbance will arrive on Monday - this system will likely produce snow and a rain/snow mix. Temperatures may support an all snow event over portions of our region.
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Snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches are not out of the question in some counties. A bit early to make a call on which counties will have the best chance for accumulating snow. Stay tuned for updates as we move closer to the event.
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Here are the broad-brushed precipitation maps for the next few days
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See the extended forecast below for updated information on the system for the middle of next week - a very active pattern is shaping up for the next 2-3 weeks.
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Note that La Nina is weakening. This could provide more opportunity for a stormy spring.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Colder air has moved into the region and will last into early next week. There will be a couple of disturbances moving through the flow. These disturbances will cause precipitation to develop late Thursday night and Friday morning - this will end on Friday afternoon and early evening.
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Most of the precipitation will fall as rain, however, if the precipitation moves in early enough there could be a mix of snow and sleet over parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky - a mix of rain/snow will be possible as the rain comes to an end on Friday afternoon and evening. Little or no accumulation is expected from this system.
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Saturday should bring quite a few clouds - clearing is more likely on Sunday. Cold temperatures will prevail on both Saturday and Sunday - temperatures may not get out of the 20s and lower 30s on Saturday. Brrrr
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Another disturbance will arrive on Monday - this system will likely produce snow and a rain/snow mix. Temperatures may support an all snow event over portions of our region.
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Snowfall accumulations of 1-3 inches are not out of the question in some counties. A bit early to make a call on which counties will have the best chance for accumulating snow. Stay tuned for updates as we move closer to the event.
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Here are the broad-brushed precipitation maps for the next few days
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See the extended forecast below for updated information on the system for the middle of next week - a very active pattern is shaping up for the next 2-3 weeks.
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Note that La Nina is weakening. This could provide more opportunity for a stormy spring.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Friday morning may bring a mixture of precipitation before changing to rain...
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We will need to monitor Monday for some snow - some accumulation will be possible...
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Friday morning may bring a mixture of precipitation before changing to rain...
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We will need to monitor Monday for some snow - some accumulation will be possible...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The actual forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
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Thursday - 0%
Friday - 2% Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Sunday night - 10%
Monday - 30%
Sunday - 0%
Sunday night - 10%
Monday - 30%
Tuesday - 5%
Wednesday - 0%
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1. As you can see I increased the probabilities for some sort of winter weather advisory on Monday.
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A system will move through our region late Sunday night into Monday night. Right now it appears that some snowfall will be possible. There is still a question on whether the temperature profiles will be cold enough for an all snow event.
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For the time being the NWS has the precipitation starting as snow and then becoming mixed with rain on Monday afternoon. However, it is not out of the question that it will remain all snow in some of our counties.
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Regardless of precipitation type the amounts do not appear to be large - but there may be enough for some accumulation of snow over parts of our region. Watch for further updates on this particular system.
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The next system arrives on Wednesday or Thursday. Still a ton of questions on storm track and intensity. Models have been showing this storm for over a week now. A good indication that they are sniffing out the potential.
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Yesterday the models deepened the low into the 985-995 millibar range - tracking over southern Illinois. That would be considered a significant storm. With that type of track we would likely experience rain and some thunderstorms. If the track of this storm is further south then we may be looking at snow.
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There is a wide range of possibilities for next weeks storm - another system may impact the region late next week or weekend. Active weather for the next few weeks.
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Plenty to monitor over the coming days - I would not be surprised if forecasts have to be updated and tweaked quite a few times with each event. Basically that means there is a lot of uncertainty and low confidence in any one given forecast.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index - for those interested
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Here are the latest precipitation outlooks from NOAA - as you can see from the maps - we are going to experience above normal precipitation over the coming 2 weeks.
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A system will move through our region late Sunday night into Monday night. Right now it appears that some snowfall will be possible. There is still a question on whether the temperature profiles will be cold enough for an all snow event.
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For the time being the NWS has the precipitation starting as snow and then becoming mixed with rain on Monday afternoon. However, it is not out of the question that it will remain all snow in some of our counties.
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Regardless of precipitation type the amounts do not appear to be large - but there may be enough for some accumulation of snow over parts of our region. Watch for further updates on this particular system.
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The next system arrives on Wednesday or Thursday. Still a ton of questions on storm track and intensity. Models have been showing this storm for over a week now. A good indication that they are sniffing out the potential.
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Yesterday the models deepened the low into the 985-995 millibar range - tracking over southern Illinois. That would be considered a significant storm. With that type of track we would likely experience rain and some thunderstorms. If the track of this storm is further south then we may be looking at snow.
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There is a wide range of possibilities for next weeks storm - another system may impact the region late next week or weekend. Active weather for the next few weeks.
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Plenty to monitor over the coming days - I would not be surprised if forecasts have to be updated and tweaked quite a few times with each event. Basically that means there is a lot of uncertainty and low confidence in any one given forecast.
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index - for those interested
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Here are the latest precipitation outlooks from NOAA - as you can see from the maps - we are going to experience above normal precipitation over the coming 2 weeks.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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