Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon update
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I applaud the NWS Offices for their excellent coverage of this mornings event - excellent job in the warning process.
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Local media - all local media - did a great job this morning. I can't list them all - but you know who you are - thank you for the wall to wall coverage. More lives would have been lost had there not been warnings and coverage.
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Clearing skies - cooler.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Sunny and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 65-70 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South to southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies - a chance for thunderstorms late at night. A few storms could produce hail and strong winds.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" locally heavier in a few cells
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" locally heavier in a few cells
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: A chance for thunderstorms - some storms may be severe with hail, high winds, and tornadoes.
Highs: around 70-75 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-30 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-1.50" - heavier thunderstorms produce the heavier amounts
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Severe thunderstorms possible late Thursday night into Friday - two rounds. One round after 11 pm on Thursday night into the 8 am time frame - another round possible late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Yes - listen for updates on the weather Thursday night into Friday.
The first wild card is the development of severe thunderstorms late on Thursday night into the EARLY AM hours of Friday along and north of the warm front. Some hail storms will be possible - along with high winds. This is a conditional threat.
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The second wild card in the forecast will be the placement of the greatest threat of severe weather on Friday - listen for updates.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : A few severe thunderstorms will be possible - large hail and high winds possible.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: Severe weather is likely to occur on Friday - large hail, high winds, tornadoes possible in or near our region.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday - No
Thursday night - possible
Friday - Yes - watches will likely be issued in or near our region
Saturday - No
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday - No
Thursday night - possible
Friday - Yes - watches will likely be issued in or near our region
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Have yet to sleep - but wanted to this update out. A more detailed outlook will be issued on Thursday. Thank you everyone who helped last night with storm reports - your reports helped save lives.
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A major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes struck our region overnight. This event over-achieved in its potential. There were several damaging tornadoes in our region- we knew there could be tornadoes - but the strength and longevity of the tornadoes was amazing.
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Sadly numerous people were killed by the storms last night and this morning - more than 100 injured. The exact death toll is still being assessed. Millions of dollars in damage were caused by this mornings tornado outbreak. Hundreds of homes were damaged or destroyed.
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One tornado, we believe (waiting to hear from the NWS) crossed through Ballard County into McCracken County - and ended in Massac County. Other tornadoes crossed southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois. The hardest hit town was Harrisburg, Illinois. Damage in Harrisburg was at least EF3 - if not greater.
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Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted by last nights storms.
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Here is the official outlook from SPC for Thursday night and then Friday - keep in mind there could be two rounds of severe weather - one Thursday night and one again on Friday.
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This graphic below is mainly VERY late Thursday night and the second graphic is all day Friday
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This threat area could move around a bit - SPC normally fine tunes the forecast as more data becomes available. Don't focus on the exact area of risk above - focus on the overall threat for severe weather.
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I am concerned about the potential severe weather outbreak on Thursday night and especially on Friday for our region. Please stay alert for updates on this next storm system.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Have yet to sleep - but wanted to this update out. A more detailed outlook will be issued on Thursday. Thank you everyone who helped last night with storm reports - your reports helped save lives.
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A major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes struck our region overnight. This event over-achieved in its potential. There were several damaging tornadoes in our region- we knew there could be tornadoes - but the strength and longevity of the tornadoes was amazing.
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Sadly numerous people were killed by the storms last night and this morning - more than 100 injured. The exact death toll is still being assessed. Millions of dollars in damage were caused by this mornings tornado outbreak. Hundreds of homes were damaged or destroyed.
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One tornado, we believe (waiting to hear from the NWS) crossed through Ballard County into McCracken County - and ended in Massac County. Other tornadoes crossed southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois. The hardest hit town was Harrisburg, Illinois. Damage in Harrisburg was at least EF3 - if not greater.
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Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted by last nights storms.
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Here is the official outlook from SPC for Thursday night and then Friday - keep in mind there could be two rounds of severe weather - one Thursday night and one again on Friday.
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This graphic below is mainly VERY late Thursday night and the second graphic is all day Friday
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I am concerned about the potential severe weather outbreak on Thursday night and especially on Friday for our region. Please stay alert for updates on this next storm system.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This is ONLY through 7 pm Thursday and does not include after that time frame.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This is ONLY through 7 pm Thursday and does not include after that time frame.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No time for the extended outlook today.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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