February 2nd-3rd: Mild to continue! With some rain and storms developing

February 2nd-3rd - 2012
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...


Thursday night:  Some clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s and lower 40s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind:  East winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Some showers developing during the afternoon.  Mild.    
Above normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 53-57 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: East/southeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  Rainfall totals:   0.10" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Friday night:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 50s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 90%  Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" - locally 1.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: Showers with some thunderstorms.

Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 58 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph  
Precipitation probability - 80%  Rainfall totals:  0.40"0.80"- locally heavier pockets of rain possible
Confidence in this forecast is high 
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No major concerns. 



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No

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Wild card in this forecast will be whether or not a few thunderstorms approach of become severe on Friday night or Saturday.  Remember that a severe thunderstorm - by definition - is one with 1" hail, 58 mph winds, and/or tornadoes. 
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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No major changes in this forecast update.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Thursday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes - late
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Friday night :
  Will need to monitor for the potential of isolated severe storms.
Friday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday:  Will need to monitor for isolated severe storms
Saturday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  Yes
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here


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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: 
Another BEAUTIFUL DAY across our region - can you believe this weather?  There were pockets of morning fog to greet us on Thursday morning - some reports of dense fog.  That fog mixed out during the late morning and early afternoon hours.  Some areas remained clear of fog all morning.
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Temperatures on Friday and Saturday should continue ABOVE normal - just how much above normal?  Check out the maps below - several degrees above normal (what is new!)
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The next storm system arrives on Friday into the weekend.  We have been watching this one for over a week now.  Appears that some locally heavy rain will be possible with the weekend system.  Right now the severe weather threat appears low - however, as always, this will need to be monitored.
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Rainfall totals will likely be in the 1 to 2 inch range across the region.  Heavier amounts will occur where thunderstorms train over the same counties.  I will tweak the most likely area for heavy rain on tomorrows update.  It does appear Friday night into Saturday will provide the best opportunity for rain and a few heavy thunderstorms.
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Here is the broad-brushed precipitation map for SATURDAY - wet is the word
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I have added TWO new interactive city radars - once for the Memphis into eastern Arkansas area and the other one will cover central and Eastern Kentucky - you can check those out on the radar page.
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There will be some showers left over on Saturday night into Sunday - although not as widespread as Friday night and Saturday.  I guess the pick day of the weekend will be Friday before 3 pm and then Sunday (even though Sunday may still have some clouds and a few showers)
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As the storm pulls away late on Sunday into Sunday night we will have to watch the upper level low as it moves east or even a bit southeast - could bring in some colder air and a pocket of light snow over parts of Missouri and Illinois - uncertain about this - will need to tweak that part of the forecast. 
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Rivers remain high - you can view the latest river stages by clicking here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 



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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.



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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible.  A couple of precipitation events.  Biggest precipitation event may be around the 3rd and 4th.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms - isolated severe storms possible around 3rd or 4th.  Then fairly quiet pattern for several days after that. 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium




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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?   
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.   

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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky.  It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region.  The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
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Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
1. No big changes in the long range outlook - appears we will continue to have shots at below normal temperatures with plenty of above normal days mixed in.  This has been the pattern we have been stuck in since early December.  Quite amazing from a meteorological point of view.  One extreme to the next - so it would seem.
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Here is the official temperature outlook for February - when all is said and done it should average above normal - assuming we get the forecast correct!
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Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index - obviously our region is not in drought!  Areas to our southwest still are.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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