Precipitation may move in a bit faster than earlier forecast. Appears that mixed precipitation will move in as early as this afternoon over some of our counties.
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No real change in previous forecast as far as amounts. A light event of mixed snow, sleet, freezing rain, and perhaps even turning to cold plain old rain at some point for parts of the region - far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky - most likely to see that change over.
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Light accumulations possible from the snow, sleet, and icing.
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Salt on area roads should work fairly well - but there could be some slick spots.
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Use caution late today and into tonight/tomorrow morning
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Beau
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February 12th-13th - 2012
Sunday evening into Monday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Increasingly cloudy skies - chilly.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 18-22 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for light snow or a mixture of rain and sleet/snow in the afternoon and evening hours. Minor snow accumulation expected. (less than 1")
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 34-38 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Light snow likely - light snow may mix with sleet or freezing drizzle - drizzle/light rain late at night - especially from Cape Girardeau to Evansville southward. Some light/minor snow accumulation possible. Better chances as you go west and north in the region - and a brief window of snow accumulation possible over southern counties, as well - before it changes over to mostly rain or a mix of freezing rain/sleet and rain/drizzle.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s over most of the area - a bit colder as you go further north in the region | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - 0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - 0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Some light drizzle possible in the morning - possibly light snow over our northern counties. Little additional accumulation. Not as cold
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 38-42 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Some slick roads possible Monday night - a weak system will pass through the area - this will cause some light snow or a mixture of precipitation - possibly ending as light rain. Snow accumulations will be minor. Some areas may wake up to just a dusting - if that. See the probabilities below.
Could be some slick roads Monday evening into Monday night. Roads will improve on Tuesday as temperatures rise well above freezing.
Wild card in this forecast will be how much snow falls and it what areas - there will be a decent shot at some light accumulations over the entire area - then temperatures aloft will rise a bit and cause a mix of sleet and even some freezing rain/drizzle. I do not expect this to be a significant winter storm - light event with light accumulations. Don't be surprised if some of you see very little in the way of snow. No change from my previous thoughts of a heavy dusting to perhaps 1-2" of snow with a band of 2-3" not out of the question over parts of southeast Missouri and a brief opportunity of 2-3" over the Missouri Bootheel northeast Arkansas and part of west Tennessee - but that won't last long because temperatures will be rising.
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Part of the wild card will be whether some counties in western Kentucky and western Tennessee end up with any snow on the ground at all. This is uncertain because the rain/snow line is going to be so close.
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A light snow event is likely on Monday evening and Monday night (light precipitation may begin earlier the further west you travel in the area)...
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Below is my first call for snowfall amounts - right now I believe a dusting to perhaps an inch or two for the area - it might be hard to get the higher amounts because of the dry air and quick movement of the system. Snow is extremely difficult to predict - especially this kind of system. I have seen similar systems that ended up dropping barely a dusting...
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Either way - this does not look like a huge event - there are too many negatives at play - I will keep my forecast at a light snow event - mainly late on Monday into Monday night - ending on Tuesday probably as some light rain or drizzle - perhaps freezing drizzle - temperatures will be within 1 or 2 degrees of freezing...
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Monday evening into Tuesday morning - for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee...
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There will be a 90% chance of a dusting of snow (meaning 1" or less of snow)
There will be a 40% chance of 1" of snow falling
There will be a 30% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be less than a 10% chance of more than 3" of snow falling
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Below is my first call for snowfall amounts - right now I believe a dusting to perhaps an inch or two for the area - it might be hard to get the higher amounts because of the dry air and quick movement of the system. Snow is extremely difficult to predict - especially this kind of system. I have seen similar systems that ended up dropping barely a dusting...
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Either way - this does not look like a huge event - there are too many negatives at play - I will keep my forecast at a light snow event - mainly late on Monday into Monday night - ending on Tuesday probably as some light rain or drizzle - perhaps freezing drizzle - temperatures will be within 1 or 2 degrees of freezing...
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Monday evening into Tuesday morning - for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee...
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There will be a 90% chance of a dusting of snow (meaning 1" or less of snow)
There will be a 40% chance of 1" of snow falling
There will be a 30% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be less than a 10% chance of more than 3" of snow falling
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Light frozen precipitation possible late in the day - more towards evening.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Some light snow possible - with a mix of sleet and freezing rain/drizzle and plain old rain towards morning - better chance of remaining all snow the further north you travel in the region.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Precipitation ends early in the day.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Brrrr - did we all wake up on Sunday morning to some cold temperatures or what? Chilly start to the morning with lows well down into the teens over most of the area.
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We will see an increase in clouds tonight and on Monday. This is ahead of a weak system moving out of the west/southwestern United States.
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A light precipitation event will develop on Monday afternoon and increase on Monday evening over our region. Precipitation will likely start out as a mixture of rain/sleet/snow and then turn to all light snow for awhile on Monday night. The precipitation is likely to end as light rain/drizzle or perhaps light freezing rain/drizzle late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
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This is not a significant winter storm for our region. There may be some winter weather advisories issued for slick roads on Monday afternoon (late) into Monday night. Roads will improve by Tuesday as temperature rise well above freezing.
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A winter storm watch has been issued for our southern counties - parts of AR/MO/TN - this is because their criteria (see previous posts I have made over the last few days) for snowfall is less than the Paducah forecast area. Further south you go in the United States the less snow or frozen precipitation it takes to get a winter storm watch or warning.
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As far as accumulations - I have already covered that above in the probabilities portion of the outlook. The further north you go in the region the better chance for 1-3" of snow - the further south you go the better opportunity for a brief period of accumulations reaching perhaps 2-3" over the Missouri Bootheel into northeast Arkansas and parts of west Tennessee. However, keep in mind that temperatures in those areas will be rising on Monday night - so whatever falls may very well melt fairly quickly on Tuesday.
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As far as the rest of southeast Missouri, most of far southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky goes - a dusting of snow to perhaps patches of 1-2" of snow. With the dry air to overcome - the mixing of precipitation - the better lift being further north and further south - this doesn't make for proper ingredients for a heavy snow event in our region.
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At best this would be a category one winter system on my scale - see here
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Bottom line - those wanting a big snow event are going to be disappointed in this system. I will be happy to walk away on Tuesday morning with a dusting here at my place - if we end up with 1-2" of snow then I will consider that more than expected.
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Will monitor for any updates - basically there have been no changes in my previous thoughts on this winter system.
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Rain will return by Wednesday/Thursday! Warmer temperatures, as well.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Brrrr - did we all wake up on Sunday morning to some cold temperatures or what? Chilly start to the morning with lows well down into the teens over most of the area.
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We will see an increase in clouds tonight and on Monday. This is ahead of a weak system moving out of the west/southwestern United States.
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A light precipitation event will develop on Monday afternoon and increase on Monday evening over our region. Precipitation will likely start out as a mixture of rain/sleet/snow and then turn to all light snow for awhile on Monday night. The precipitation is likely to end as light rain/drizzle or perhaps light freezing rain/drizzle late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
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This is not a significant winter storm for our region. There may be some winter weather advisories issued for slick roads on Monday afternoon (late) into Monday night. Roads will improve by Tuesday as temperature rise well above freezing.
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A winter storm watch has been issued for our southern counties - parts of AR/MO/TN - this is because their criteria (see previous posts I have made over the last few days) for snowfall is less than the Paducah forecast area. Further south you go in the United States the less snow or frozen precipitation it takes to get a winter storm watch or warning.
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As far as accumulations - I have already covered that above in the probabilities portion of the outlook. The further north you go in the region the better chance for 1-3" of snow - the further south you go the better opportunity for a brief period of accumulations reaching perhaps 2-3" over the Missouri Bootheel into northeast Arkansas and parts of west Tennessee. However, keep in mind that temperatures in those areas will be rising on Monday night - so whatever falls may very well melt fairly quickly on Tuesday.
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As far as the rest of southeast Missouri, most of far southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky goes - a dusting of snow to perhaps patches of 1-2" of snow. With the dry air to overcome - the mixing of precipitation - the better lift being further north and further south - this doesn't make for proper ingredients for a heavy snow event in our region.
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At best this would be a category one winter system on my scale - see here
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Bottom line - those wanting a big snow event are going to be disappointed in this system. I will be happy to walk away on Tuesday morning with a dusting here at my place - if we end up with 1-2" of snow then I will consider that more than expected.
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Will monitor for any updates - basically there have been no changes in my previous thoughts on this winter system.
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Rain will return by Wednesday/Thursday! Warmer temperatures, as well.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow forecast is above....
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Snow forecast is above....
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Monday night - 100% - the NWS is already issuing advisories/watches
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Sunday - 0%
Monday - 60% Monday night - 100% - the NWS is already issuing advisories/watches
Tuesday - 30%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
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1. Rain will return to the region by Wednesday and Thursday as warmer air already moves back into our region. The roller-coaster of temperatures will continue into the next few weeks as we close out winter 2011-2012! Spring is knocking on our door.
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Can't rule out a few thunderstorms towards the middle of this week - have to watch the track of the area of low pressure. Right now I am not concerned about severe storms. That would stay further to our south. If you remember last week - the upcoming storm for Wed/Thursday looked like a big one - but all of that calmed down a bit over the last few days. Which is good news!
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Enjoy what little snow falls on Monday night and Tuesday - I know a lot of people want snow. Just can't seem to bring a decent event into the area this winter. Still a few more weeks to go - but spring is quickly closing in on us.
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Can't rule out a few thunderstorms towards the middle of this week - have to watch the track of the area of low pressure. Right now I am not concerned about severe storms. That would stay further to our south. If you remember last week - the upcoming storm for Wed/Thursday looked like a big one - but all of that calmed down a bit over the last few days. Which is good news!
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Enjoy what little snow falls on Monday night and Tuesday - I know a lot of people want snow. Just can't seem to bring a decent event into the area this winter. Still a few more weeks to go - but spring is quickly closing in on us.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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