Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Some clouds - colder.
Near normal to slightly above temperatures
Lows: in the 25-30 | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Near normal to slightly above temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 38-42 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Increasing clouds.
Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Increasing clouds - slight chance for a shower late in the day - turning colder late in the day - towards evening.
Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
Highs: around 45-50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 20% - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday night - uncertain
Wednesday - uncertain
Tuesday night - uncertain
Wednesday - uncertain
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Snore - here that sound? That is the sound that all the snow lovers are making across the nation. Oops - I said I wasn't going to bring that up again. Okay - well let's move on!
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We are entering an active pattern of weather - we have been in a slow pattern for the last 10 days - that is all about to change - with several precipitation chances over the next 10-14 days.
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Cold weather has arrived - I call it cold :) - it is in actuality more "typical" temperatures for this time of the year. We won't complain - not after our incredibly mild winter. Just how mild has it been? I am glad you asked - thank you several other bloggers today for pointing out these freshly printed maps that I am going to post below.
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January was the 4th warmest January on record for the United States. Shocked? I am shocked it wasn't the warmest! Here are the numbers!
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The higher your number - the closer you are to being the number 1 warmest on record - going back 118 years.
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How does that look on the overall map - here it is - 4th warmest on record
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So, yes - it was quite warm in January. I think we all knew that ;)
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As far as precipitation goes - it was mixed. Fairly dry across much of the nation - although there were pockets were precipitation was above normal.
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OK - with the look back at January.
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Looking ahead for our region - the next few days...
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Another weak disturbance will push into the area on Friday and Friday night - this could spark a few showers and will usher in even colder air for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday may be the coldest day of the week with temperatures struggling to get into the 30s. Bundle up - it will feel even colder after our recent warm spell.
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Low temperatures on Saturday and Sunday morning may dip into the teens over some of our counties - certainly well down into the 20s. Those early blooming flowers might not appreciate the cold temperatures.
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The Thursday and Friday broad-brushed precipitation map
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Another system approaches the region on Monday and Monday night - temperatures MIGHT be cold enough for a rain/snow mix. A bit early to make that call. Will monitor and update. It does appear that if we do receive precipitation that it would be on the light side.
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Watching the potential for a larger system towards the middle of next week. That is the one I have been hinting about for awhile - details are sketchy (just too far out to be confident one way or another). See extended discussion for more details.
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HEADLINE: Snore - here that sound? That is the sound that all the snow lovers are making across the nation. Oops - I said I wasn't going to bring that up again. Okay - well let's move on!
.
We are entering an active pattern of weather - we have been in a slow pattern for the last 10 days - that is all about to change - with several precipitation chances over the next 10-14 days.
.
Cold weather has arrived - I call it cold :) - it is in actuality more "typical" temperatures for this time of the year. We won't complain - not after our incredibly mild winter. Just how mild has it been? I am glad you asked - thank you several other bloggers today for pointing out these freshly printed maps that I am going to post below.
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January was the 4th warmest January on record for the United States. Shocked? I am shocked it wasn't the warmest! Here are the numbers!
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How does that look on the overall map - here it is - 4th warmest on record
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So, yes - it was quite warm in January. I think we all knew that ;)
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As far as precipitation goes - it was mixed. Fairly dry across much of the nation - although there were pockets were precipitation was above normal.
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OK - with the look back at January.
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Looking ahead for our region - the next few days...
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Another weak disturbance will push into the area on Friday and Friday night - this could spark a few showers and will usher in even colder air for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday may be the coldest day of the week with temperatures struggling to get into the 30s. Bundle up - it will feel even colder after our recent warm spell.
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Low temperatures on Saturday and Sunday morning may dip into the teens over some of our counties - certainly well down into the 20s. Those early blooming flowers might not appreciate the cold temperatures.
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The Thursday and Friday broad-brushed precipitation map
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Another system approaches the region on Monday and Monday night - temperatures MIGHT be cold enough for a rain/snow mix. A bit early to make that call. Will monitor and update. It does appear that if we do receive precipitation that it would be on the light side.
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Watching the potential for a larger system towards the middle of next week. That is the one I have been hinting about for awhile - details are sketchy (just too far out to be confident one way or another). See extended discussion for more details.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The actual forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
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Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0% Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 5%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 5%
Tuesday - 5%
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1. Couple of items in the long range. First will be a weak weather system on Monday into Monday night. This system could produce some light rain or snow during that time period. Right now it does not look like a heavy precipitation event and temperatures will be marginal for all frozen. Will monitor and update.
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The next system - more likely a larger system - will arrive around Tuesday night into Thursday of next week. This could produce a widespread rain event - thunderstorms are not out of the question. This will depend on the storm track. Whether this storm tracks further west or southeast will be the determining factor as to whether we see any change over to snow.
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The system could produce heavy thunderstorms over portions of the Tennessee Valley and southward. Uncertainty as to how far north the thunderstorms will track - again this will depend on the track of the area of low pressure and its intensity. Both remain uncertain - this far out.
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This is the one to watch - this is the GFS model from www.wright-weather.com - shows the storm wound up to our southwest on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Click image for real size view.
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This makes the fourth day in a row that the storm has been strongly signaled by the models. The questions have been the strength of the system - whether the jet streams phase or not. Track of the low pressure has moved around - anywhere from the TN Valley into Missouri. Lot of questions remain - this is long range and remember anything in the long range is always low confidence. That means - we monitor and watch to see how things trend over the coming days.
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I will monitor the system for the middle of next week - models are all over the place - which means low confidence in one solution or another.
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Here are the latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day outlooks - remember the TIME STAMPS are at the top of each image - that tells you the time period of the forecast. Blue means below normal temperatures are more likely - yellow/orange means the pattern favors above normal temperatures. The precipitation maps - green would be above normal.
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And here are the eight to fourteen day outlook
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The next system - more likely a larger system - will arrive around Tuesday night into Thursday of next week. This could produce a widespread rain event - thunderstorms are not out of the question. This will depend on the storm track. Whether this storm tracks further west or southeast will be the determining factor as to whether we see any change over to snow.
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The system could produce heavy thunderstorms over portions of the Tennessee Valley and southward. Uncertainty as to how far north the thunderstorms will track - again this will depend on the track of the area of low pressure and its intensity. Both remain uncertain - this far out.
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This is the one to watch - this is the GFS model from www.wright-weather.com - shows the storm wound up to our southwest on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Click image for real size view.
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This makes the fourth day in a row that the storm has been strongly signaled by the models. The questions have been the strength of the system - whether the jet streams phase or not. Track of the low pressure has moved around - anywhere from the TN Valley into Missouri. Lot of questions remain - this is long range and remember anything in the long range is always low confidence. That means - we monitor and watch to see how things trend over the coming days.
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I will monitor the system for the middle of next week - models are all over the place - which means low confidence in one solution or another.
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Here are the latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day outlooks - remember the TIME STAMPS are at the top of each image - that tells you the time period of the forecast. Blue means below normal temperatures are more likely - yellow/orange means the pattern favors above normal temperatures. The precipitation maps - green would be above normal.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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