Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for an evening showers or thunderstorm - mainly over Kentucky/Tennessee. An isolated heavy thunderstorm possible over western KY - stronger cells might produce an isolated high wind gust or hail report. Mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: 45-50 degrees | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - locally heavier if a heavy thunderstorm forms.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Clouds with intervals of sunshine. Very mild. A chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms - a few storm may be severe late in the afternoon over parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee (east of there, as well). The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along and east of the Ohio River. Windy at times.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 68-75 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" - locally heavier in the heaviest thunderstorm cells.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies. Evening thunderstorms possible - ending from west to east.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph during the first half of the night
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph during the first half of the night
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: A few clouds - cooler.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 48-54 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The concerns will center around a chance for thunderstorms - mainly over areas along and east of the Ohio River on Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. A few storms may become severe. There are limiting factors - including moisture return. Wind fields will support severe thunderstorms - if they can get going. The greatest threat area would be over western Kentucky and Tennessee - see graphics below. Areas west of that line should also monitor for updates forecasts. If severe thunderstorms do form then they could produce hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes.
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Again - Missouri and Illinois appear to be out of the risk zone for Thursday. Mainly areas to the east/southeast in KY/TN.
Monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media for any watches or warnings on Thursday afternoon and evening.
The wild card in this forecast will be the placement of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening. Right now (as of Wednesday evening) it appears the greatest risk will be over KY/TN - areas south and east of there, as well - again see the graphics below. The time for severe thunderstorms would likely be around 3 pm through 8 pm. Again - ending from west to east.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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Added a chance for thunderstorms this evening (Wednesday evening). Otherwise tweaked wind speeds and temperatures for the next few days.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: An isolated high wind report or hail report can't be ruled out - widespread severe weather is not in the cards tonight.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A rumble of thunder possible - early.
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Wednesday night: An isolated high wind report or hail report can't be ruled out - widespread severe weather is not in the cards tonight.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A rumble of thunder possible - early.
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Thursday: A few severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon and evening - mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee. At this time it appears the risk in Illinois and Missouri is less. Monitor for updates forecasts on Thursday. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local media for possible watches and warnings. If severe thunderstorms were to form then they could produce hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night : Yes - early in the evening - same area mentioned above. Thunderstorms will end from west to east on Thursday evening.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - early in the evening.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday afternoon and evening - Possible
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday afternoon and evening - Possible
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - Uncertain - monitor for updates
Wednesday - Uncertain - monitor for updates
Wednesday - Uncertain - monitor for updates
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Wow - is this February or what month is this? Spring - is that you knocking LOUDLY on our door? Maybe spring knocked a long time ago ;) - certainly seems like it in this year without a winter.
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There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening - this evening - from southern Illinois and southwest Indiana - moving southeast into Kentucky. The high resolution models are show this occurring - local radars indicate some showers in the area - can't rule out a rumble of thunder.
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The main concerns for this discussion will center around an area of low pressure that will develop later tonight and on Thursday - the low is forecast to track across our region. With the area of low pressure will come a cold front - showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of this cold front.
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Temperatures on Thursday will warm WELL into the upper 60s and EVEN lower 70s across our region. Hard to believe? The more sun tomorrow the more likely we will see some 70 degree readings. Unimaginable - but true.
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Obviously if you have upper 60s and lower 70s in February you have to be concerned about thunderstorms. And we are a bit concerned.
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Right now the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined an area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening - this risk outline does (currently) include portions of our region. Mainly Kentucky and Tennessee. There was a slight shift north and west of the risk zone - from previous updates. This should be monitored for further updates.
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There are limiting factors for severe weather on Thursday - these limiting factors include deeper moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. There is also some uncertainty on instability levels. CAPE values (amount of energy in the atmosphere) seem to spike over KY/TN - thus the reason they are in the risk outline.
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We will see how this goes - right now the risk appears scattered. Most likely a line of showers and thunderstorms will form somewhere along and east of the Ohio River by the middle of the afternoon on Thursday - this line will move east/northeast. A few of the storms may become severe with hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes.
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Here is the official Storm Prediction Center outlook for severe weather on Thursday - again check back for updates - this could shift around a bit.
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The yellow area means general - non-severe thunderstorms. The orange area is the SLIGHT risk zone - slight risk, according to SPC, means that some severe thunderstorms are likely to occur but they are not expected to produce WIDESPREAD severe weather. More scattered reports of severe weather vs widespread.
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Monitor your NOAA Weather Radios and local media for the most up to date weather information - don't forget you can check in on the latest watches and warnings by visiting your local NWS web-site, as well. Here is the Paducah, KY NWS site click here
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Here are some maps to go along with my discussion above
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These maps are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for the FULL size view
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You can see dew points spiking over parts of KY/TN - area of MO/IL not so much. This time of the year I like to see dew points in the 55-60 range for severe weather (although severe weather - under the right circumstances can occur with lower dew points).
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You can see the RICHER moisture further south of MS/AL/LA. If this storm system had deeper moisture to work with then I would be much more concerned about a widespread severe weather outbreak. As it is - it is marginal.
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Let's take a look at the future-cast radar for Thursday afternoon around 4 pm - you can see some precipitation (showers and storms) trying to form over parts of our region.
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Then let's move ahead a couple of hours - you can see that development is a bit more robust as we move into the late afternoon hours.
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Then as we push into the evening hours - showers and thunderstorms start to move off to the east. This image is around 7-8 pm in the evening.
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Temperatures will be MUCH above normal on Thursday - let's take a look at the departure from normal high temperature maps - these maps show you HOW MUCH above or below normal highs will be on each day - normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees (in west KY and southern IL)
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Thursday above - Friday below - you can tell where the cold front is. Front should move through our region with gusty winds on Thursday evening and Thursday night.
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And here are the Saturday and Sunday maps - more typical weather for February.
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Let's take a look at ACTUAL high temperatures on Thursday and Friday - you can see that our region will be exceptionally warm on Thursday - spring fever will be the rage. Friday will move back towards normal readings.
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Did you ever think your area of the nation is disaster prone? Well - this map should help clear up any thoughts about whether you do or don't live in a disaster prone area. I saw this on Dr. Jeff Masters blog. Thought it was interesting. You can view the actual INTERACTIVE map by clicking here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Wow - is this February or what month is this? Spring - is that you knocking LOUDLY on our door? Maybe spring knocked a long time ago ;) - certainly seems like it in this year without a winter.
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There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening - this evening - from southern Illinois and southwest Indiana - moving southeast into Kentucky. The high resolution models are show this occurring - local radars indicate some showers in the area - can't rule out a rumble of thunder.
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The main concerns for this discussion will center around an area of low pressure that will develop later tonight and on Thursday - the low is forecast to track across our region. With the area of low pressure will come a cold front - showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of this cold front.
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Temperatures on Thursday will warm WELL into the upper 60s and EVEN lower 70s across our region. Hard to believe? The more sun tomorrow the more likely we will see some 70 degree readings. Unimaginable - but true.
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Obviously if you have upper 60s and lower 70s in February you have to be concerned about thunderstorms. And we are a bit concerned.
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Right now the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined an area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening - this risk outline does (currently) include portions of our region. Mainly Kentucky and Tennessee. There was a slight shift north and west of the risk zone - from previous updates. This should be monitored for further updates.
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There are limiting factors for severe weather on Thursday - these limiting factors include deeper moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. There is also some uncertainty on instability levels. CAPE values (amount of energy in the atmosphere) seem to spike over KY/TN - thus the reason they are in the risk outline.
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We will see how this goes - right now the risk appears scattered. Most likely a line of showers and thunderstorms will form somewhere along and east of the Ohio River by the middle of the afternoon on Thursday - this line will move east/northeast. A few of the storms may become severe with hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes.
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Here is the official Storm Prediction Center outlook for severe weather on Thursday - again check back for updates - this could shift around a bit.
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The yellow area means general - non-severe thunderstorms. The orange area is the SLIGHT risk zone - slight risk, according to SPC, means that some severe thunderstorms are likely to occur but they are not expected to produce WIDESPREAD severe weather. More scattered reports of severe weather vs widespread.
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Monitor your NOAA Weather Radios and local media for the most up to date weather information - don't forget you can check in on the latest watches and warnings by visiting your local NWS web-site, as well. Here is the Paducah, KY NWS site click here
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Here are some maps to go along with my discussion above
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These maps are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for the FULL size view
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You can see dew points spiking over parts of KY/TN - area of MO/IL not so much. This time of the year I like to see dew points in the 55-60 range for severe weather (although severe weather - under the right circumstances can occur with lower dew points).
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You can see the RICHER moisture further south of MS/AL/LA. If this storm system had deeper moisture to work with then I would be much more concerned about a widespread severe weather outbreak. As it is - it is marginal.
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Let's take a look at the future-cast radar for Thursday afternoon around 4 pm - you can see some precipitation (showers and storms) trying to form over parts of our region.
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Then let's move ahead a couple of hours - you can see that development is a bit more robust as we move into the late afternoon hours.
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Then as we push into the evening hours - showers and thunderstorms start to move off to the east. This image is around 7-8 pm in the evening.
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Temperatures will be MUCH above normal on Thursday - let's take a look at the departure from normal high temperature maps - these maps show you HOW MUCH above or below normal highs will be on each day - normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees (in west KY and southern IL)
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And here are the Saturday and Sunday maps - more typical weather for February.
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Let's take a look at ACTUAL high temperatures on Thursday and Friday - you can see that our region will be exceptionally warm on Thursday - spring fever will be the rage. Friday will move back towards normal readings.
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Did you ever think your area of the nation is disaster prone? Well - this map should help clear up any thoughts about whether you do or don't live in a disaster prone area. I saw this on Dr. Jeff Masters blog. Thought it was interesting. You can view the actual INTERACTIVE map by clicking here.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0% Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
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1. There will be a couple of systems to monitor for the next 7-10 days.
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Both Saturday and Sunday should be dry conditions to our region - temps will be cooler on Saturday than Sunday. Sunday will see some recovery. Both Saturday and Sunday will bring morning lows into the 30s.
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Sky conditions should be partly sunny for the weekend.
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A slight chance for a system on Sunday night and Monday - but more likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show a system moving into the Great Lakes on Sunday night and Monday but the lack of moisture may prevent any significant weather concerns for our region. I will monitor and update if there are changes. Confidence is low on how the forecast pans out Sunday through Wednesday.
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The next system appears on the GFS Model for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Uncertainties surround the strength of this storm. Right now it appears it would be a rain maker for our region - possible thunderstorms if the model is correct. Something to monitor over the coming period.
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Confidence is very low in next weeks forecast.
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Here is what the GFS shows - you can see a wound up low moving into the Great Lakes - dragging a strong cold front into our region. If this is the case then some more rain will be placed in the forecast for next Tuesday-Wednesday..
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Other model data tracks the mid-week system much further south - bringing snow into parts of MO/IL - uncertainty abounds on the exact track. Watch for updates.
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Another system is possible around March 2nd-4th. Way out of forecast range.
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Latest drought map shows that we remain in a fairly wet soil condition region.
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Both Saturday and Sunday should be dry conditions to our region - temps will be cooler on Saturday than Sunday. Sunday will see some recovery. Both Saturday and Sunday will bring morning lows into the 30s.
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Sky conditions should be partly sunny for the weekend.
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A slight chance for a system on Sunday night and Monday - but more likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models show a system moving into the Great Lakes on Sunday night and Monday but the lack of moisture may prevent any significant weather concerns for our region. I will monitor and update if there are changes. Confidence is low on how the forecast pans out Sunday through Wednesday.
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The next system appears on the GFS Model for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Uncertainties surround the strength of this storm. Right now it appears it would be a rain maker for our region - possible thunderstorms if the model is correct. Something to monitor over the coming period.
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Confidence is very low in next weeks forecast.
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Here is what the GFS shows - you can see a wound up low moving into the Great Lakes - dragging a strong cold front into our region. If this is the case then some more rain will be placed in the forecast for next Tuesday-Wednesday..
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Other model data tracks the mid-week system much further south - bringing snow into parts of MO/IL - uncertainty abounds on the exact track. Watch for updates.
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Another system is possible around March 2nd-4th. Way out of forecast range.
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Latest drought map shows that we remain in a fairly wet soil condition region.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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