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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Clouds with a chance for a few showers or drizzle - patchy fog possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Mostly cloudy with some sprinkles or drizzle around - some fog possible in some areas.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 48-52 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies. Cooler.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: North at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: North at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: A mix of clouds and sun.
Highs: around 50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Well the rain arrived on Friday night and pushed out a lot faster than expected - figured the best chance of rain would be during the morning hours but didn't think morning meant between 2 am and 7 am! I guess that salvaged much of Saturday for the region - some raindrops and drizzle lingered into the afternoon over some counties.
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Here is the morning radar shot - this capture was from 11 am - you can see the heavy snow on the northern edges of the storm. Not to add insult to any of you snow fans out there :) - but they had quite the snowstorm over the last few days across Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska. Winter wonderland out that way.
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Ken Dewey posted this photograph on Facebook - showing nearly 12" of snow in his area! He lives in Nebraska.
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I am a bit snow jealous!
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Nebraska Snow!
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Here is a zoomed in view of the heavy snow on radar up to our north and northwest - from earlier this morning. Click image for real size view.
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Continued mild temperatures - nothing new there! Temperatures have been above normal basically all winter - just a few days were below normal. Many people are calling this the year without a winter. I can't disagree with that assessment.
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Tonight will bring some fog and drizzle at times. Sunday will bring a chance for a few light showers and drizzle, as well - perhaps some fog. Rainfall amounts on Sunday will be light - in areas that do receive precipitation.
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Our next system of interest won't arrive until the middle of the week - a weak system with a little bit of moisture to work with.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Well the rain arrived on Friday night and pushed out a lot faster than expected - figured the best chance of rain would be during the morning hours but didn't think morning meant between 2 am and 7 am! I guess that salvaged much of Saturday for the region - some raindrops and drizzle lingered into the afternoon over some counties.
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Here is the morning radar shot - this capture was from 11 am - you can see the heavy snow on the northern edges of the storm. Not to add insult to any of you snow fans out there :) - but they had quite the snowstorm over the last few days across Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska. Winter wonderland out that way.
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Ken Dewey posted this photograph on Facebook - showing nearly 12" of snow in his area! He lives in Nebraska.
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I am a bit snow jealous!
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Here is a zoomed in view of the heavy snow on radar up to our north and northwest - from earlier this morning. Click image for real size view.
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Continued mild temperatures - nothing new there! Temperatures have been above normal basically all winter - just a few days were below normal. Many people are calling this the year without a winter. I can't disagree with that assessment.
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Tonight will bring some fog and drizzle at times. Sunday will bring a chance for a few light showers and drizzle, as well - perhaps some fog. Rainfall amounts on Sunday will be light - in areas that do receive precipitation.
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Our next system of interest won't arrive until the middle of the week - a weak system with a little bit of moisture to work with.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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No major rain the next 24 hours - some light rain and scattered showers/drizzle will be possible but amounts should not exceed 0.10"
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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No major rain the next 24 hours - some light rain and scattered showers/drizzle will be possible but amounts should not exceed 0.10"
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Semi-active period of weather
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Semi-active period of weather
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
. Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - less than 5% Thursday - less than 5%
Friday - 0%..1. No big storms to talk about on the long range! There will be a weak disturbance move through the region on Tuesday night into Thursday - will need to fine tune the timing. Moisture is lacking - there could be just enough lift to cause a few rain showers. Temperatures will be marginal. The European Model is the coldest of all models and it shows some light snow around Wednesday.
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For now we will just monitor the system and not be sold on one solution vs another. Either way it appears if precipitation were to occur that it would be light.
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A fairly calm and quiet week ahead of us - perhaps a more active pattern as we push further into February. The signals for cold vs warm are mixed for the next several weeks.
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The warm has won out all winter long and those who have kept saying it would turn cold "next week" have been wrong just about every single time - including myself.
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The leading indicators for cold are the GFS model - the EC model continues to show a similar pattern over the coming weeks as the previous weeks. It is hard to buy into sustained cold in a winter like this.
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For now - nothing major to worry about over the next few days. Severe weather or otherwise - that is the good news!
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For now we will just monitor the system and not be sold on one solution vs another. Either way it appears if precipitation were to occur that it would be light.
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A fairly calm and quiet week ahead of us - perhaps a more active pattern as we push further into February. The signals for cold vs warm are mixed for the next several weeks.
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The warm has won out all winter long and those who have kept saying it would turn cold "next week" have been wrong just about every single time - including myself.
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The leading indicators for cold are the GFS model - the EC model continues to show a similar pattern over the coming weeks as the previous weeks. It is hard to buy into sustained cold in a winter like this.
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For now - nothing major to worry about over the next few days. Severe weather or otherwise - that is the good news!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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