Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Clearing and cold - well below normal temperatures.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle teens | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Wind chills into the single digits.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 30 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper teens | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: Cloudy with an increasing chance of snow late in the day. I will need to fine tune the exact timing of the snow - there will be a lot of dry air to overcome so the snow may evaporate for awhile before reaching the surface.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 32-36 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.05" - perhaps a dusting of snow before the sun goes down
Confidence in this forecast is moderate
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Cold temperatures tonight (Saturday night) - lows into the lower to middle teens with bitterly cold wind chills.
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Wild card in this forecast will be the timing of the snow on Monday afternoon or evening. There will be quite a bit of dry air to overcome. When snow falls into dry air it evaporates. That means radar can appear as if it snowing over your house - but in actuality the snow evaporates. It can take awhile to saturate the whole column of air so it reaches the ground. This will delay the onset of snow on Monday. Right now the better chance of snow appears late in the day. Will monitor and tweak as we move into Sunday and Monday.
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Remember that snow is extremely difficult to forecast - especially more than 24 hours in advance. There could be changes to the forecast - so watch for updates.
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A light snow event is likely on Monday - especially towards Monday evening and Monday night...
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Below is my first call for snowfall amounts - right now I believe a dusting to perhaps an inch or two for the area - it might be hard to get the higher amounts because of the dry air and quick movement of the system. Snow is extremely difficult to predict - especially this kind of system. I have seen similar systems that ended up dropping barely a dusting...
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Either way - this does not look like a huge event - there are too many negatives at play - I will keep my forecast at a light snow event - mainly late on Monday into Monday night - ending on Tuesday probably as some light rain or drizzle - perhaps freezing drizzle - temperatures will be within 1 or 2 degrees of freezing...
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Monday evening into Tuesday morning - for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee...
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There will be a 90% chance of a dusting of snow (meaning 1" or less of snow)
There will be a 40% chance of 1" of snow falling
There will be a 30% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be less than a 10% chance of more than 3" of snow falling
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Below is my first call for snowfall amounts - right now I believe a dusting to perhaps an inch or two for the area - it might be hard to get the higher amounts because of the dry air and quick movement of the system. Snow is extremely difficult to predict - especially this kind of system. I have seen similar systems that ended up dropping barely a dusting...
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Either way - this does not look like a huge event - there are too many negatives at play - I will keep my forecast at a light snow event - mainly late on Monday into Monday night - ending on Tuesday probably as some light rain or drizzle - perhaps freezing drizzle - temperatures will be within 1 or 2 degrees of freezing...
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Monday evening into Tuesday morning - for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee...
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There will be a 90% chance of a dusting of snow (meaning 1" or less of snow)
There will be a 40% chance of 1" of snow falling
There will be a 30% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be less than a 10% chance of more than 3" of snow falling
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Monday is starting to come into view on the short range - no major changes from yesterday's thoughts. Tweaked winds a bit on direction and speed.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow possible late in the day - mainly light snow - more likely as we move into the late afternoon/evening hours - first starting over our western counties and then spreading east.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Before we move into the discussion - let's all keep in mind that snow is extremely difficult to forecast. Most meteorologists won't even give amount forecasts until 24 hours in advance. Any change in the storms track could cause changes to how much snow falls - right now this appears to be a light event. I know people get excited about the mention of snow in the forecast - but keep in mind that beyond 24 hours - it is guesswork mixed with meteorology.
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Now to the short range discussion...
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Brrrrr - that is what I am hearing today around the region. Temperatures are sharply colder compared to recent days - strong northerly winds aren't helping our cause, either. Wind chill values earlier today where in the single digits across some of our counties. Winter - is that you? I believe it is! At least for a brief visit. I guess we should say - WELCOME HOME - (I would imagine some are already show you the DOOR)
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SOME of you even had a surprise burst of snow this morning - anywhere from a dusting to an inch or so fell over parts of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. Meanwhile some of us picked up nothing at all! Saw several photos on Twitter of snow on the ground - including one near the NWS office in Paducah. Nothing like a surprise snow to get the morning started!
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Temperatures have fallen quite a bit in the last 24 hours - you may wonder just how much have they fallen? Well - here you go! The map below shows you how many degrees the temperature has fallen since this time yesterday (this map was taken from 11 am on Saturday)
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Check out the apparent temperature map from 10 am this morning (Saturday morning)
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Temperatures tonight (Saturday night) will dip down into the teens - well into the teens. Don't be surprised to hear about a few single digits in those "favored" cold spots in our region. The winds will start to die down a bit. That will with the wind chill factors.
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Here are the Sunday morning low temperatures - forecast map
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Don't forget about your outdoor pets - it will be bitterly cold again tonight.
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Sunday will bring cold conditions - a few clouds. Dry conditions. Temperatures will likely not rise above freezing.
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Sunday high temperature forecasts
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Monday will bring a weak system across our region. It should be cold enough for snow - starting mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. There are some questions on the exact timing of the onset of snow. I am thinking later in the day - the better chance for some snowflakes.
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Light snow will mix with some sleet or perhaps freezing drizzle on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Accumulations across our region should be light.
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There are a number of negative factors on this snow event. The quick movement of the storm, the weak nature of the system itself, the dry air aloft (will defin cut down on totals), the marginal temperatures, the mixing with some sleet or freezing drizzle - all of the above means it will be difficult to obtain significant snow amounts.
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Model QPF shows only around 0.10-0.30" melted precipitation (that would mean 1-3" of snow if that all fell). I say cut that in half and you may have your snow totals. That means a dusting to perhaps 1-2" - with pockets of 2-3". The 2-3" pockets might be over parts of southeast Missouri - then perhaps the Missouri Bootheel and closer to Tennessee where the better moisture will be located - however, the further south you go the better chance of mixing and changing to freezing drizzle or rain. That will melt some of the snow. Tough call this far out on exact amounts - but you get the general idea.
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BOTTOM LINE :)
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Light snow event on Monday evening into Monday night - a dusting to an inch or two possible - can't rule out some reports of 2-3" in a few areas. I would not focus on the higher end amounts - if you pick up 1-2" then you probably will have done well from this system. If you end up with just a dusting - don't be surprised or disappointed.
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Here is what the NAM model is showing for the snow event - totals are on the right margin - click image for real size view
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More data will come in later tonight and on Sunday - I can fine tune the forecast. This is a light event for our region - either way.
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Whether the NWS issues a winter weather advisory or not - I have no idea. They do not have strict guidelines anymore on when they issue advisories. If they feel the impact is going to be significant enough then they can issue an advisory. If they feel that the impact is going to be marginal - then they don't have to issue an advisory. The advisories are more impact based now - vs years ago when they had certain amounts of snow necessary for an advisory, watch, or warning. I don't do the advisories - that isn't my department. That task is given to our friends over at the National Weather Service.
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Additional rain chances arrive on Tuesday into next weekend. Fairly active pattern - see the extended forecast.
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The broad brushed precipitation maps for Monday into Tuesday...
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Note again that I think most of the snow will hold off until later on Monday. I will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.
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Here is what the NAM model is showing for precipitation type for Monday night into Tuesday morning - you can see that the mix - rain/snow line could push fairly far north in our area. Something that will have to be monitored.
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Click image for full size view - blue is snow - red is mixed and green is rain.
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The first image is for around 7 pm on Monday evening - the second image is around 1 am on Tuesday morning and the last image is for around 5 am on Tuesday morning.
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Check out HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL temperatures will be over the coming days - these are not actual temperatures - this is how much BELOW normal we are far average. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 and normal lows are in the middle 20s. You can see we moderate as we push into Tuesday and Wednesday.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Before we move into the discussion - let's all keep in mind that snow is extremely difficult to forecast. Most meteorologists won't even give amount forecasts until 24 hours in advance. Any change in the storms track could cause changes to how much snow falls - right now this appears to be a light event. I know people get excited about the mention of snow in the forecast - but keep in mind that beyond 24 hours - it is guesswork mixed with meteorology.
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Now to the short range discussion...
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Brrrrr - that is what I am hearing today around the region. Temperatures are sharply colder compared to recent days - strong northerly winds aren't helping our cause, either. Wind chill values earlier today where in the single digits across some of our counties. Winter - is that you? I believe it is! At least for a brief visit. I guess we should say - WELCOME HOME - (I would imagine some are already show you the DOOR)
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SOME of you even had a surprise burst of snow this morning - anywhere from a dusting to an inch or so fell over parts of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. Meanwhile some of us picked up nothing at all! Saw several photos on Twitter of snow on the ground - including one near the NWS office in Paducah. Nothing like a surprise snow to get the morning started!
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Temperatures have fallen quite a bit in the last 24 hours - you may wonder just how much have they fallen? Well - here you go! The map below shows you how many degrees the temperature has fallen since this time yesterday (this map was taken from 11 am on Saturday)
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Check out the apparent temperature map from 10 am this morning (Saturday morning)
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Temperatures tonight (Saturday night) will dip down into the teens - well into the teens. Don't be surprised to hear about a few single digits in those "favored" cold spots in our region. The winds will start to die down a bit. That will with the wind chill factors.
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Here are the Sunday morning low temperatures - forecast map
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Don't forget about your outdoor pets - it will be bitterly cold again tonight.
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Sunday will bring cold conditions - a few clouds. Dry conditions. Temperatures will likely not rise above freezing.
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Sunday high temperature forecasts
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Monday will bring a weak system across our region. It should be cold enough for snow - starting mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours. There are some questions on the exact timing of the onset of snow. I am thinking later in the day - the better chance for some snowflakes.
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Light snow will mix with some sleet or perhaps freezing drizzle on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Accumulations across our region should be light.
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There are a number of negative factors on this snow event. The quick movement of the storm, the weak nature of the system itself, the dry air aloft (will defin cut down on totals), the marginal temperatures, the mixing with some sleet or freezing drizzle - all of the above means it will be difficult to obtain significant snow amounts.
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Model QPF shows only around 0.10-0.30" melted precipitation (that would mean 1-3" of snow if that all fell). I say cut that in half and you may have your snow totals. That means a dusting to perhaps 1-2" - with pockets of 2-3". The 2-3" pockets might be over parts of southeast Missouri - then perhaps the Missouri Bootheel and closer to Tennessee where the better moisture will be located - however, the further south you go the better chance of mixing and changing to freezing drizzle or rain. That will melt some of the snow. Tough call this far out on exact amounts - but you get the general idea.
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BOTTOM LINE :)
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Light snow event on Monday evening into Monday night - a dusting to an inch or two possible - can't rule out some reports of 2-3" in a few areas. I would not focus on the higher end amounts - if you pick up 1-2" then you probably will have done well from this system. If you end up with just a dusting - don't be surprised or disappointed.
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Here is what the NAM model is showing for the snow event - totals are on the right margin - click image for real size view
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More data will come in later tonight and on Sunday - I can fine tune the forecast. This is a light event for our region - either way.
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Whether the NWS issues a winter weather advisory or not - I have no idea. They do not have strict guidelines anymore on when they issue advisories. If they feel the impact is going to be significant enough then they can issue an advisory. If they feel that the impact is going to be marginal - then they don't have to issue an advisory. The advisories are more impact based now - vs years ago when they had certain amounts of snow necessary for an advisory, watch, or warning. I don't do the advisories - that isn't my department. That task is given to our friends over at the National Weather Service.
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Additional rain chances arrive on Tuesday into next weekend. Fairly active pattern - see the extended forecast.
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The broad brushed precipitation maps for Monday into Tuesday...
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Note again that I think most of the snow will hold off until later on Monday. I will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.
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Here is what the NAM model is showing for precipitation type for Monday night into Tuesday morning - you can see that the mix - rain/snow line could push fairly far north in our area. Something that will have to be monitored.
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Click image for full size view - blue is snow - red is mixed and green is rain.
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The first image is for around 7 pm on Monday evening - the second image is around 1 am on Tuesday morning and the last image is for around 5 am on Tuesday morning.
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Check out HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL temperatures will be over the coming days - these are not actual temperatures - this is how much BELOW normal we are far average. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 and normal lows are in the middle 20s. You can see we moderate as we push into Tuesday and Wednesday.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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A light snow event is likely on Monday evening into Monday night...
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A light snow event is likely on Monday evening into Monday night...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, eastern Kentucky, Memphis, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The actual forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
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Sunday - 0%
Sunday night - 0%
Monday - 30%
Monday night - 60%
Tuesday - 30%
Sunday night - 0%
Monday - 30%
Monday night - 60%
Tuesday - 30%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
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1. A fairly active pattern is on tap for the region over the next 3 weeks. I will be tracking numerous storm systems as they push into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. Several of the systems may deepen quite a bit.
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The best chance of rain for next week (outside of our snow system) will likely be on Wednesday/Thursday. At one time that storm looked to phase and become a beast - but most of the data no longer indicates that potential. More of a weak system - weak low crossing our region with a chance for rain. Does not appear to be a heavy event. Rainfall totals will probably be less than 0.50". Will monitor and update through the week.
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Temperatures appear to be in swing mode - they have been this way all winter. Seems like we go from above normal temperatures for days on end - to a few days of normal to below normal. This appears to continue into the next 2-3 weeks.
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Meteorological SPRING begins on March 1st. :) That is not far off. Can you believe it? We have almost made it through winter. I don't know where the time goes - but it should does go FAST.
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The best chance of rain for next week (outside of our snow system) will likely be on Wednesday/Thursday. At one time that storm looked to phase and become a beast - but most of the data no longer indicates that potential. More of a weak system - weak low crossing our region with a chance for rain. Does not appear to be a heavy event. Rainfall totals will probably be less than 0.50". Will monitor and update through the week.
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Temperatures appear to be in swing mode - they have been this way all winter. Seems like we go from above normal temperatures for days on end - to a few days of normal to below normal. This appears to continue into the next 2-3 weeks.
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Meteorological SPRING begins on March 1st. :) That is not far off. Can you believe it? We have almost made it through winter. I don't know where the time goes - but it should does go FAST.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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