Friday evening into Saturday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers turning to snow showers. Colder and windy - low wind chill values.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: West/Northwest winds at 10-25 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Some clouds and cold. Windy at times - low wind chills - down into the teens.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 28 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Mostly clear and cold - perhaps the coldest night of the season thus far.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 10-15 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Mostly sunny - cold
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 32 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns - cold wind chills tonight and Saturday. Any moisture left on area roads could cause a few slick spots on Saturday morning.
No - other than cold wind chills
No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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A chance for light snow showers tonight - little in the way of accumulation...
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A chance for light snow on Monday afternoon into Monday night...
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A chance for light snow on Monday afternoon into Monday night...
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Lowered temperatures
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some light snow possible as the cold front moves through the region.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some light snow possible as the cold front moves through the region.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Uncertain
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Rain and a rain/snow mix fell over the region on Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
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Rain will come to an end tonight (Friday night) - ending as light snow - with much colder temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will likely not get out of the 30s on Saturday and barely into the 30s on Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the teens this weekend. Brrrr will be the word!
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Wind chills will be in the single digits tonight and in the teens tomorrow (Saturday).
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A light winter weather event will likely impact the region on Monday into Monday night. I am thinking generally a heavy dusting to perhaps 1-3" of snow across the region. We will have to monitor the exact timing of the system and temperature profiles. Winter storm watches and winter weather advisories may have to be issued for some counties in MO/IL/IN/KY/AR/TN over the next couple of days.
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The most likely time period for snow in our immediate local counties will be Monday during the late afternoon into the overnight hours.
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The exact track of this winter weather maker will need to be fine tuned - along with temperatures over our region. Any shift in the storm could cause changes in the forecast. Although right now snow appears likely - we all know how fickle these winter weather systems can be. Monitor for updates on Saturday and Sunday as more information becomes available and we zero in on the forecast.
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Temperatures will start to moderate and warm by Tuesday into Wednesday - perhaps ahead of our next storm system. That storm, if it develops, should be a rain maker.
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Here are the broad brushed precipitation maps for the next few days - keep in mind that the Sunday maps runs into Monday morning. I think most of the precipitation will hold off until Monday into Monday night. Sunday should be dry during the day.
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See the extended forecast for more information
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Rain and a rain/snow mix fell over the region on Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
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Rain will come to an end tonight (Friday night) - ending as light snow - with much colder temperatures over the next few days. Temperatures will likely not get out of the 30s on Saturday and barely into the 30s on Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the teens this weekend. Brrrr will be the word!
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Wind chills will be in the single digits tonight and in the teens tomorrow (Saturday).
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A light winter weather event will likely impact the region on Monday into Monday night. I am thinking generally a heavy dusting to perhaps 1-3" of snow across the region. We will have to monitor the exact timing of the system and temperature profiles. Winter storm watches and winter weather advisories may have to be issued for some counties in MO/IL/IN/KY/AR/TN over the next couple of days.
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The most likely time period for snow in our immediate local counties will be Monday during the late afternoon into the overnight hours.
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The exact track of this winter weather maker will need to be fine tuned - along with temperatures over our region. Any shift in the storm could cause changes in the forecast. Although right now snow appears likely - we all know how fickle these winter weather systems can be. Monitor for updates on Saturday and Sunday as more information becomes available and we zero in on the forecast.
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Temperatures will start to moderate and warm by Tuesday into Wednesday - perhaps ahead of our next storm system. That storm, if it develops, should be a rain maker.
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Here are the broad brushed precipitation maps for the next few days - keep in mind that the Sunday maps runs into Monday morning. I think most of the precipitation will hold off until Monday into Monday night. Sunday should be dry during the day.
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See the extended forecast for more information
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Light now is likely to fall over the region on Monday afternoon/evening...
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Snow may be mixed with sleet at times....
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Right now I am thinking a general 1-3" of snow will be possible...
Light now is likely to fall over the region on Monday afternoon/evening...
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Snow may be mixed with sleet at times....
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Right now I am thinking a general 1-3" of snow will be possible...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The actual forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
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Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Sunday night - 5%
Monday - 60%
Sunday - 0%
Sunday night - 5%
Monday - 60%
Tuesday - 10%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
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1. You can see that I have once again increased the probabilities for a LIGHT winter weather event on Monday. Light snow appears likely to develop to our west/southwest during the overnight period on Sunday. This precipitation will then move east/northeast into our region on Monday into Monday afternoon. Temperatures should support mostly snow with perhaps a mix of snow and sleet.
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Some type of winter weather advisory may have to be issued by the NWS for Monday into Monday night. This appears to be a light event.
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Exact details on the Monday storm system are still a bit unclear - adjustments in the track of the wave and exact temperature profiles will be critical in determining the impact on this winter weather system. Watch for updates through the weekend.
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Temperatures should start to rise a bit on Tuesday into Wednesday - ahead of our next storm system. Right now it appears we will have a chance for rain on Wednesday or Thursday of next week - followed by yet another chance for rain towards the end of the week or weekend.
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We are entering a fairly active weather pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. Numerous storm systems to track.
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Some type of winter weather advisory may have to be issued by the NWS for Monday into Monday night. This appears to be a light event.
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Exact details on the Monday storm system are still a bit unclear - adjustments in the track of the wave and exact temperature profiles will be critical in determining the impact on this winter weather system. Watch for updates through the weekend.
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Temperatures should start to rise a bit on Tuesday into Wednesday - ahead of our next storm system. Right now it appears we will have a chance for rain on Wednesday or Thursday of next week - followed by yet another chance for rain towards the end of the week or weekend.
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We are entering a fairly active weather pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. Numerous storm systems to track.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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