Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a shower during the morning hours - otherwise an increasing chance for rain/showers in the afternoon - a rumble of thunder is possible. Mild.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 52-56 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Showers likely - some thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph turning more westerly late
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph turning more westerly late
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: Quite a few clouds - continued mild.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Well - did you enjoy our brief encounter with winter? Snow and ice fell over much of the region on Monday night - accumulations ranged from a dusting over parts of west KY and far southern Illinois - to 1-4" over parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana - although much of far southwest Indiana was in the dusting to an inch range.
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Can't say the event over or underachieved - especially with all the mixing that occurred. This keeps snow from accumulating - we knew that was a good possibility. The HRRR model did a terrible job on this past event - it has done well in the past. It did pick up on some subtle banding - which did occur.
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Overall this past winter event was a typical weak winter weather system for our region - lot of mixed bag precipitation and difficult forecasting county by county.
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The next storm system is already on the way! This one will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region - severe weather is likely to our south. I believe our local counties will avoid the severe threat. Some rumbles of thunder will, however, be possible.
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Satellite view shows moisture streaming in to the southwest U.S. - even off the Pacific - this is our next system for Wednesday/Thursday.
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The bulk of the rain will likely fall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday (early AM hours).
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Rainfall totals are likely to be in the 0.30-0.80" range across our region.
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The broad-brushed precipitation outlook for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning - keep in mind most of our precipitation will occur on Wednesday afternoon into the early AM hour of Thursday morning (likely ending by sunrise)
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Here is the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlook for Wednesday - the yellow area means general thunderstorms (not severe) - the orange area is where they have outlined a slight risk for severe thunderstorms (slight risk means there will likely be a few severe thunderstorms - but they expect it to not be widespread in nature)
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The system will depart by Thursday morning - leaving us with some clouds and CONTINUED above normal temperatures (the story of this winter).
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Well - did you enjoy our brief encounter with winter? Snow and ice fell over much of the region on Monday night - accumulations ranged from a dusting over parts of west KY and far southern Illinois - to 1-4" over parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana - although much of far southwest Indiana was in the dusting to an inch range.
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Can't say the event over or underachieved - especially with all the mixing that occurred. This keeps snow from accumulating - we knew that was a good possibility. The HRRR model did a terrible job on this past event - it has done well in the past. It did pick up on some subtle banding - which did occur.
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Overall this past winter event was a typical weak winter weather system for our region - lot of mixed bag precipitation and difficult forecasting county by county.
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The next storm system is already on the way! This one will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region - severe weather is likely to our south. I believe our local counties will avoid the severe threat. Some rumbles of thunder will, however, be possible.
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Satellite view shows moisture streaming in to the southwest U.S. - even off the Pacific - this is our next system for Wednesday/Thursday.
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The bulk of the rain will likely fall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday (early AM hours).
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Rainfall totals are likely to be in the 0.30-0.80" range across our region.
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The broad-brushed precipitation outlook for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning - keep in mind most of our precipitation will occur on Wednesday afternoon into the early AM hour of Thursday morning (likely ending by sunrise)
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The system will depart by Thursday morning - leaving us with some clouds and CONTINUED above normal temperatures (the story of this winter).
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0% Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
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1. I don't have much to talk about in the long range - a strong storm system will pass to our south on Saturday and Sunday - likely along the Gulf Coast of Mexico. At one time this system appeared to be heading into our region - making for a very active week. However, it now appears this will stay fairly far south.
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Quiet weather is likely into Sunday/Monday. Will monitor the southern storm system for any changes in its track.
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The latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlook maps indicate that we will likely remain normal to above normal in temperatures over the next week or so.
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The latest Palmer Drought Index map indicates are region continues to be in the wet category
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Quiet weather is likely into Sunday/Monday. Will monitor the southern storm system for any changes in its track.
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The latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlook maps indicate that we will likely remain normal to above normal in temperatures over the next week or so.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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