Thursday evening into Friday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies Fog - some freezing fog possible.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s to lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Freezing fog during the morning hours possible in some counties. Use caution early. A mix of sun and clouds.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 50-54 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: East winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: Southeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: Increasing clouds through the day - a slight chance for rain showers during the afternoon hours - better chance of some precipitation on Saturday night.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Northeasterly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is moderate
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Freezing fog on Friday morning is a concern - use caution during the early morning hours. Freezing fog is simply fog that causes moisture to freeze on surfaces.
Watch for slick roads on Friday morning.
All the wild cards in this forecast will center around a storm system that will approach the region on Saturday afternoon into Sunday. If the low tracks far enough north then rain will move into some of our counties - especially the southern parts of the region - say from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky/Tennessee. The precipitation would begin as rain and then turn to snow on Saturday night
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Confidence is low on where this storm tracks - this is why it is the wild card. This system will need to be monitored closely. Heavy/wet snow can't be ruled out over some of our counties on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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Will continue to monitor the weekend winter storm - snow may be added to the forecast if the storm system on Saturday night/Sunday morning tracks further north...
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Will continue to monitor the weekend winter storm - snow may be added to the forecast if the storm system on Saturday night/Sunday morning tracks further north...
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Added fog.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Freezing fog on Friday morning.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Thursday brought quite a few clouds to our region - occasionally the sun would poke through only to quickly be ushered away by clouds.
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Temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal over most of our counties. A fairly calm weather day.
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Fog will form Thursday night and Friday morning - some of this fog may freeze on surfaces. This will cause slick road conditions. Use care during the morning hours on Friday.
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The big story for the next few days will be a weekend winter storm that will move along the Gulf of Mexico. This storm system is forecast to be fairly deep and may bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms just to our south.
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The question for our area will be the exact storm track. If the area of low pressure is further north than currently forecast then rain and snow will occur on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This would most likely occur over our southern counties.
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The models have been trending north - all of the models have been trending north - with this low pressure area.
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At this time it appears that rain will move into parts of the Missouri Bootheel, northeast Arkansas, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee late on Saturday afternoon and evening. The rain will then continue to spread east/northeast through the overnight hours. The rain will change to snow towards late evening - some accumulation will be possible.
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The exact track of the storm will determine how much snow falls - if any at all. Watch for updates over the coming 24-48 hour period.
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Here is the broad brushed precipitation outlook for Saturday evening into Sunday morning - you can see the storm system approaching our region - we would be on the northern edge of whatever precipitation forms.
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Watch for updates on this system as more data becomes available and the exact track of the area of low pressure is determined.
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Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will average near to above normal.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Thursday brought quite a few clouds to our region - occasionally the sun would poke through only to quickly be ushered away by clouds.
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Temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal over most of our counties. A fairly calm weather day.
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Fog will form Thursday night and Friday morning - some of this fog may freeze on surfaces. This will cause slick road conditions. Use care during the morning hours on Friday.
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The big story for the next few days will be a weekend winter storm that will move along the Gulf of Mexico. This storm system is forecast to be fairly deep and may bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms just to our south.
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The question for our area will be the exact storm track. If the area of low pressure is further north than currently forecast then rain and snow will occur on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. This would most likely occur over our southern counties.
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The models have been trending north - all of the models have been trending north - with this low pressure area.
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At this time it appears that rain will move into parts of the Missouri Bootheel, northeast Arkansas, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee late on Saturday afternoon and evening. The rain will then continue to spread east/northeast through the overnight hours. The rain will change to snow towards late evening - some accumulation will be possible.
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The exact track of the storm will determine how much snow falls - if any at all. Watch for updates over the coming 24-48 hour period.
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Here is the broad brushed precipitation outlook for Saturday evening into Sunday morning - you can see the storm system approaching our region - we would be on the northern edge of whatever precipitation forms.
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Watch for updates on this system as more data becomes available and the exact track of the area of low pressure is determined.
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Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will average near to above normal.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Some snow may accumulate on Saturday night and Sunday morning over parts of our region - the most likely area for heavier snow accumulations will be in Kentucky and Tennessee - some accumulation will be possible over far southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, as well. Stay tuned for updates on this system...
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I will continue to monitor the weekend storm - snow accumulations may need to be added to the forecast for some of our counties - especially southern counties for Saturday night/Sunday morning...
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Some snow may accumulate on Saturday night and Sunday morning over parts of our region - the most likely area for heavier snow accumulations will be in Kentucky and Tennessee - some accumulation will be possible over far southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, as well. Stay tuned for updates on this system...
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I will continue to monitor the weekend storm - snow accumulations may need to be added to the forecast for some of our counties - especially southern counties for Saturday night/Sunday morning...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0% Saturday - 0%
Saturday night - 40%
Sunday - 40%
Monday - 0%
Saturday night - 40%
Sunday - 40%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
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1. Well, the big question for the extended period is the weekend snowstorm - winter storm. Where will it track? How far north? This is going to have to be monitored because some data indicates quite a bit of snow for portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.
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Another chance for rain arrives towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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Another chance for rain arrives towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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