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Precipitation has moved out of the region for the most part - rain and snow chances will be more east of our region through the rest of the day.
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Updated at 8 PM
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February 18th-19th - 2012
Sunday evening into Monday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Cloudy - rain developing over the central and southern portions of our region - rain may mix with snow late tonight. Northern portions of our region will miss the bulk of this event - the highest chance for precipitation will be along and south of a line from Cape Girardeau, MO to the northwest Kentucky counties. Lesser chances for precipitation north and west of that line.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10-20 mph - winds becoming gusty towards morning.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.30"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Rain turning to snow - mainly over the southern and southeastern portion of our region - some snow accumulation will be possible (see below). There are questions about banding - especially across areas from near Murray, KY over and across KY Lake into south central Kentucky. Much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois/southwest Indiana will likely see little or no snow accumulation. Best chance for accumulating snow will be the far southern and southeastern counties in our region - see probabilities below. Keep in mind that ANY change in the track of this storm will cause significant changes in the forecast.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 37-41 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: North and northeast winds at 10-20 mph - gusts above 25 mph possible
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies and cooler.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: North/northeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: North/northeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny and a bit chilly.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 48-51 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The concern for this forecast package will be Sunday morning and early afternoon - the chance for some wet snow over portions of our region. The best chance for the wet snow will be the southern and southeastern counties.
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There are still questions on the exact track of this storm system. Right now it appears that if there were to be accumulating snows that it would be most likely along a line from near Murray and then east of there - towards Bowling Green. Areas a county or two north and west of that line may see some wet snow, as well - but accumulations would be less likely.
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Road temperatures and surface temperatures are fairly warm - this will help keep accumulations down, as well.
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If banding develops (band of heavier snow in a thin stripe - normally no more than a county wide) then accumulations could be heavier. See the probabilities below.
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Keep in mind that ANY change in the track of this storm will cause significant changes in the forecast.
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If you plan to travel on Sunday - especially those traveling to the east - check ahead for the latest forecast and road conditions. The heaviest snow from this system is forecast to occur over portions of south central and eastern Kentucky - the further east you go in Kentucky the better the chance for accumulating snow.
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Here is where the HPC has placed the best chance for accumulating snow.
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This probability chart shows where they believe the chances of 1" of snow will occur - you can see that parts of our region are in the low chances.
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Again this is all highly dependent on the exact track of the area of low pressure and if snow banding occurs. Right now this appears to be a NON-EVENT for much of our region. The further south and east you go then the better chance for some snow - along a line from Murray, KY to Bowling Green, KY - then east of there.
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The wild card in this forecast is how much snow falls in some of our counties on Sunday. Right now it appears the most likely area to experience snow will be the eastern and southeastern counties in our region - along a line from Murray towards Bowling Green. ANY shift in the storms track - south or north - will cause the forecast to change. This is a tough one - because of the warm ground conditions and the uncertainty on the exact track of the low pressure and upper level features.
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Many of us will see no snow accumulation at all - keep that in mind. We are really talking about an event that is mostly going to impact the far eastern or southeastern counties in our region - Murray to KY Lake to Bowling Green - and that area is not a sure bet for snow accumulation. See the probabilities below.
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Keep in mind that ANY change in the track of this storm will cause significant changes in the forecast.
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Snow will be possible on Saturday night (very late) and Sunday - best chance for some accumulation will be over parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee. See the outlined area below.
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Including Farmington, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Sikeston, Carbondale, Metropolis, Marion, Mt Vernon, Vienna, Harrisburg, Evansville, Owensboro, Smithland, Providence, Salem (KY),
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There will be a 90% chance of NO snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 10% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
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Snowfall probabilities
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Saturday night (late) into Sunday - for southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, southern Illinois and southeast Missouri....
Including Farmington, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Sikeston, Carbondale, Metropolis, Marion, Mt Vernon, Vienna, Harrisburg, Evansville, Owensboro, Smithland, Providence, Salem (KY),
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There will be a 90% chance of NO snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 10% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
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Snowfall probabilities
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Saturday night (late) into Sunday - for far western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee....
Including Paducah/Wickliffe/Bardwell/Benton, KY/Clinton/Mayfield/Calvert City, Martin, Union City, Tiptonville...
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There will be a 90% chance of NO snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 30% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
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There will be a 90% chance of NO snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 30% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be a 10% chance that snow will exceed 3"
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Keep in mind that ANY change in the track of this storm will cause significant changes in the forecast.
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Keep in mind that ANY change in the track of this storm will cause significant changes in the forecast.
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Snowfall probabilities
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Saturday evening into Sunday morning - for the rest of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee... .
Including Paris (TN), Bowling Green, Hopkinsville, Dover, Clarksville, Murray, KY Lake, Morgantown... .
There will be a 60% chance of a dusting to 1" of snow
There will be a 50% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 30% chance of 2-4" of snow falling
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Keep in mind that ANY change in the track of this storm will cause significant changes in the forecast.
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Tweaked probabilities - but not by much.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some mix of rain/snow late tonight is not out of the question.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some mix of rain/snow late tonight is not out of the question.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow will be possible on Sunday - a wet snow - in some of our counties. See the probabilities above.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: The big story today is a large winter storm that is causing widespread showers and thunderstorms from Texas into Alabama and Mississippi. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes have struck portions of Louisiana and Mississippi during the morning hours on Saturday. Some damage has been reported.
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The large mass of rain shows up nicely on radars - keep in mind these radar images are from early on Saturday afternoon.
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That precipitation in Texas is associated with the upper level features of this storm. That is what will bring precipitation into our region later tonight -Saturday night - into Sunday.
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Rainfall amounts will vary in our region - no precipitation at all is forecast over our northern counties - precipitation amounts increase as you move south and east in our region. See the 48 hour precipitation forecast map below.
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Here are the satellite images of this large winter storm - this is one of the larger winter storms of the 2011-2012 season - for the southern United States.
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The above image is the IR Satellite - showing the bright colors across the southern U.S. - that is where thick clouds are located with cold tops - that means thunderstorms and convection. One reason this storm may track further south - because of the mess along the Gulf of Mexico.
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Many a good forecast are messed because of strong convection along the Gulf of Mexico - do not be surprised if the models shift even further south because of this - thus reducing chances for significant snow in our local areas - southeast counties. Something to keep an eye on and keep in mind.
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The above image is the water vapor - it shows deep moisture streaming northward out of the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. This system is a WET one - especially for areas to our south and east.
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You can see the TIGHT cut off on the precipitation amounts.
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I pulled up a few high resolution model images from www.wright-weather.com and you can see what the model is showing as far as snow - rain changing to snow and then moving out on Sunday.
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The first map below is showing the 7 am - 10 am time frame on Sunday morning. You can see a small area of snow over our region - mainly across parts of western Kentucky.
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The second image is the late morning forecast - radar image.
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You can see the precipitation moving out of our region by late tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps as snow - mainly across our eastern and southeastern counties.
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Here is what that model is showing for snowfall totals - you can see it is painting a little bit over parts of our region - keep in mind that this is HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of the storm. Many areas will experience no snowfall accumulation at all. And don't be surprised if the storm tracks further south because of the heavy thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: The big story today is a large winter storm that is causing widespread showers and thunderstorms from Texas into Alabama and Mississippi. Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes have struck portions of Louisiana and Mississippi during the morning hours on Saturday. Some damage has been reported.
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The large mass of rain shows up nicely on radars - keep in mind these radar images are from early on Saturday afternoon.
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That precipitation in Texas is associated with the upper level features of this storm. That is what will bring precipitation into our region later tonight -Saturday night - into Sunday.
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Rainfall amounts will vary in our region - no precipitation at all is forecast over our northern counties - precipitation amounts increase as you move south and east in our region. See the 48 hour precipitation forecast map below.
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Here are the satellite images of this large winter storm - this is one of the larger winter storms of the 2011-2012 season - for the southern United States.
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The above image is the IR Satellite - showing the bright colors across the southern U.S. - that is where thick clouds are located with cold tops - that means thunderstorms and convection. One reason this storm may track further south - because of the mess along the Gulf of Mexico.
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Many a good forecast are messed because of strong convection along the Gulf of Mexico - do not be surprised if the models shift even further south because of this - thus reducing chances for significant snow in our local areas - southeast counties. Something to keep an eye on and keep in mind.
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You can see the TIGHT cut off on the precipitation amounts.
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I pulled up a few high resolution model images from www.wright-weather.com and you can see what the model is showing as far as snow - rain changing to snow and then moving out on Sunday.
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The first map below is showing the 7 am - 10 am time frame on Sunday morning. You can see a small area of snow over our region - mainly across parts of western Kentucky.
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The second image is the late morning forecast - radar image.
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You can see the precipitation moving out of our region by late tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps as snow - mainly across our eastern and southeastern counties.
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Here is what that model is showing for snowfall totals - you can see it is painting a little bit over parts of our region - keep in mind that this is HIGHLY dependent on the exact track of the storm. Many areas will experience no snowfall accumulation at all. And don't be surprised if the storm tracks further south because of the heavy thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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See the snow information above in the probabilities section....
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See the snow information above in the probabilities section....
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Sunday - 30%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
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1. Long discussion today on the short range. The long range - more rain will be possible on Monday night into Tuesday.
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The biggest concern in the extended forecast will arrive around February 27th-29th - a significant storm is possible. This appears, at least at this time, to be a rain/thunderstorm event. Way too far out for details.
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The biggest concern in the extended forecast will arrive around February 27th-29th - a significant storm is possible. This appears, at least at this time, to be a rain/thunderstorm event. Way too far out for details.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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