Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon update
.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.
Wednesday night: Cloudy with showers likely - a chance for a rumble of thunder. Mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph - winds becoming westerly at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Thursday: A few clouds - continued mild weather. Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 48-54 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: North/northwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Highs: around 48-54 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: North/northwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Thursday night: Mostly clear skies.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s and lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Friday: Partly sunny skies - mild for February.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
No major concerns
No
Wild card enters the forecast on Saturday and Saturday night as a strong storm system slides along the Gulf of Mexico - see the extended discussion.
.
.
No significant snow in this short range forecast (through Friday)...
.
Will continue to monitor a strong storm system for Saturday/Sunday that is forecast to pass to our south...
.
.
Will continue to monitor a strong storm system for Saturday/Sunday that is forecast to pass to our south...
.
.
.
Tweaked temperatures and wind
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder is possible
.
.
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - thunder is possible
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
HEADLINE: A storm system is already spreading showers into the region - as I type this. This area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread east/northeast into the evening hours.
.
Rain chances will become likely across the entire region this evening into the overnight hours. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.20-0.50" range - isolated heavier where thunderstorms occur.
.
Severe weather is not in our local forecast.
.
Here is the water vapor satellite image of the storm system impacting our region this evening and tonight (Wednesday evening/night)
.
The broad brushed precipitation map for tonight and early Thursday morning - keep in mind that precipitation will be exiting the region before sunrise on Thursday.
.
.
The next weather maker arrives on Saturday into Saturday night/Sunday. An area of low pressure will glide along the Gulf of Mexico - this could spread moisture as far north as portions of our region. If this were to occur then it would probably be on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This will need to be monitored. Temperatures would likely support rain at the beginning of the storm - changing to snow. Confidence is low on how far north the precipitation spreads. Watch for updates over the coming 48 hours.
.
Otherwise - temperatures will continue to be above normal for this time of the year - the story of this winter!
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
HEADLINE: A storm system is already spreading showers into the region - as I type this. This area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to spread east/northeast into the evening hours.
.
Rain chances will become likely across the entire region this evening into the overnight hours. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.20-0.50" range - isolated heavier where thunderstorms occur.
.
Severe weather is not in our local forecast.
.
Here is the water vapor satellite image of the storm system impacting our region this evening and tonight (Wednesday evening/night)
.
.
.
The next weather maker arrives on Saturday into Saturday night/Sunday. An area of low pressure will glide along the Gulf of Mexico - this could spread moisture as far north as portions of our region. If this were to occur then it would probably be on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This will need to be monitored. Temperatures would likely support rain at the beginning of the storm - changing to snow. Confidence is low on how far north the precipitation spreads. Watch for updates over the coming 48 hours.
.
Otherwise - temperatures will continue to be above normal for this time of the year - the story of this winter!
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
.
.
No significant snow in our forecast...
.
I will monitor the weekend storm system...
.
No significant snow in our forecast...
.
I will monitor the weekend storm system...
.
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
.
.
---
.
Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
.
Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
.
-----------------------------
.
What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
.
Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
.
.
Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
.
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0% Saturday - 0%
Saturday night - less than 5%
Sunday - less than 5%
Monday - 0%
Saturday night - less than 5%
Sunday - less than 5%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
.
.
1. The focus on the extended forecast will be a storm system passing to our south on Saturday into Sunday. Right now most of the data keeps the system far enough south that we should not have to be overly concerned about precipitation over most of our region. The exception to this may be the southern counties.
.
The GFS model has been stubbornly keeping the storm further north than other models. The consensus seems to be that it may be too far north with the placement of the features. However, this will need to be monitored.
.
If the storm were to be placed further north then some rain would be possible on Saturday afternoon and even a change over to snow on Saturday night - in some counties. Again - the better chance of this occurring will be over western Tennessee into south central Kentucky - south and east of there. I will monitor the trends.
.
Here is the broad brushed precipitation map for the weekend storm - you can see how the bu
.
Otherwise another storm approaches our region around Monday/Tuesday of next week - it should be warm enough for rain at that time.
.
Here is the latest 3 month forecast for temperatures and precipitation
.
.
The GFS model has been stubbornly keeping the storm further north than other models. The consensus seems to be that it may be too far north with the placement of the features. However, this will need to be monitored.
.
If the storm were to be placed further north then some rain would be possible on Saturday afternoon and even a change over to snow on Saturday night - in some counties. Again - the better chance of this occurring will be over western Tennessee into south central Kentucky - south and east of there. I will monitor the trends.
.
Here is the broad brushed precipitation map for the weekend storm - you can see how the bu
.
Otherwise another storm approaches our region around Monday/Tuesday of next week - it should be warm enough for rain at that time.
.
Here is the latest 3 month forecast for temperatures and precipitation
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment