Thursday evening into Friday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Mostly cloudy - windy at times - with a few thunderstorms possible - especially over southern Indiana down into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. If storms form then they could become severe. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media - local radars. There is a strong CAP over the area which could limit thunderstorm activity - some uncertainty surrounds this evening. Best advice - monitor updates. Local NWS Page - for updates - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds becoming westerly at 10-30 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - locally heavier rain if severe storms do form - most likely over parts of IN/KY/TN.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. A shower possible. Cooler and windy at times.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 44-48 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s and lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: A few clouds otherwise sunny skies and cool.
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Highs: around 45 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Tough and difficult forecast - uncertainties surround whether storms form this afternoon and evening (Thursday). If they do pop then they could become severe. There is a strong CAP over the region - this CAP could help prevent storms from forming. The most likely area for thunderstorms to form would be southeast Illinois into southern Indiana and then Kentucky. Monitor local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates. Thunderstorms will end from west to east - what storms do form (again most likely from southern Indiana down into Kentucky - MAYBE part of southern Illinois - southeast Illinois)
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Here are two graphics from the Paducah, KY NWS and the Louisville, KY NWS - you can see there is greater concern as you move EAST in the region - first graphic is from Paducah (second from Louisville)
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Possibly - monitor for any watches and/or warnings. IF thunderstorms form then they could become severe. Mostly over the eastern and northeastern part of the area.
Wild card in this forecast continues to be whether or not thunderstorms form this afternoon and evening (Thursday). The atmosphere is unstable - however, there is a strong CAP. A CAP prevents storms from forming. There is also a limited amount of moisture. There has been quite a bit of sun today and that has made things more unstable - however, clouds are forecast to increase as low level moisture moves into the area. I will be heading to a weather conference - best advice is watch for updates on local media and NOAA Weather Radio. Monitor radars, as well. Storms should move out of the area by late evening (if they form at all).
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Thunderstorms will quickly end from west to east late this afternoon and evening.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Some severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out - if storms do form then they could produce hail, high winds, and even a couple of tornadoes. Monitor local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the most up to date information..
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday night: Some severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out - if storms do form then they could produce hail, high winds, and even a couple of tornadoes. Monitor local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the most up to date information..
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - Uncertain
Wednesday - Uncertain
Thursday - No
Friday - N0
Saturday - Uncertain
Thursday - No
Friday - N0
Saturday - Uncertain
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Quick update today - I am heading to a weather conference this evening - so if severe thunderstorms do form monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media for the most up to date information.
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A deep area of low pressure will move across our region this evening (Thursday evening) and into the overnight hours. The low will drag a cold front through our area tonight - this will usher in cooler temperatures - although nothing unusual.
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Winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon into Thursday night - gusts above 30 mph will likely occur because of the gradient with the area of low pressure.
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Speaking of the area of low pressure :) - here it is - as of noon on Thursday - 990 mb over Missouri - thank goodness we don't have more instability and moisture - we would be dealing with a larger outbreak of storms. Click image for full view size.
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What is unusual is the high temperatures today - Thursday - highs into the 70s over some of our counties. Imagine that - in February!
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Of course anytime you have temperatures into the 70s in February you have to be concerned about thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may form this afternoon and evening (Thursday) across our area. The most likely area to receive thunderstorms would be southern Indiana, southeast Illinois, and then Kentucky and perhaps Tennessee.
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There is a strong LID on the atmosphere today - a CAP. This CAP helps keep thunderstorms from forming. If the CAP is too strong then thunderstorms may not form at all. This leaves a low confidence level for how this unfolds.
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IF thunderstorms were to form then they could become severe and produce hail, high winds, and even a few tornadoes. Monitor local media and NOAA Weather Radio this afternoon and evening for updates.
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Here is what one high resolution model shows - see those small green/blue dots over parts of our region? That is a line of thunderstorms that may form this afternoon - you get the general idea of the area from this model - assuming it is correct in its solution. I wanted to give you some sort of idea of the area we are talking about.
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Click images for real size view
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The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk zone for severe weather - however, they also have said there is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this event. Confidence is low. That is why the best advice is to monitor for updates - possible watches and/or warnings.
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Here is the area of greatest concern - again all of this moves out quickly late this afternoon and evening - once it moves out (whatever does form) then all is clear as far as any threat for severe storms.
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Here is another zoomed in map - showing the area of greatest concern - the darker the area - the greater concern or chance for some severe storms.
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Again - part of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky
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Any thunderstorms that do form will quickly move out this evening - leaving us with windy conditions and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
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The next weather maker shows up on Sunday into Monday - right now it appears a dry cold front will move through our region.
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See the extended forecast for beyond the weekend.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Quick update today - I am heading to a weather conference this evening - so if severe thunderstorms do form monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media for the most up to date information.
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A deep area of low pressure will move across our region this evening (Thursday evening) and into the overnight hours. The low will drag a cold front through our area tonight - this will usher in cooler temperatures - although nothing unusual.
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Winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon into Thursday night - gusts above 30 mph will likely occur because of the gradient with the area of low pressure.
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Speaking of the area of low pressure :) - here it is - as of noon on Thursday - 990 mb over Missouri - thank goodness we don't have more instability and moisture - we would be dealing with a larger outbreak of storms. Click image for full view size.
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What is unusual is the high temperatures today - Thursday - highs into the 70s over some of our counties. Imagine that - in February!
.
Of course anytime you have temperatures into the 70s in February you have to be concerned about thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may form this afternoon and evening (Thursday) across our area. The most likely area to receive thunderstorms would be southern Indiana, southeast Illinois, and then Kentucky and perhaps Tennessee.
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There is a strong LID on the atmosphere today - a CAP. This CAP helps keep thunderstorms from forming. If the CAP is too strong then thunderstorms may not form at all. This leaves a low confidence level for how this unfolds.
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IF thunderstorms were to form then they could become severe and produce hail, high winds, and even a few tornadoes. Monitor local media and NOAA Weather Radio this afternoon and evening for updates.
.
Here is what one high resolution model shows - see those small green/blue dots over parts of our region? That is a line of thunderstorms that may form this afternoon - you get the general idea of the area from this model - assuming it is correct in its solution. I wanted to give you some sort of idea of the area we are talking about.
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Click images for real size view
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The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk zone for severe weather - however, they also have said there is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this event. Confidence is low. That is why the best advice is to monitor for updates - possible watches and/or warnings.
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Here is the area of greatest concern - again all of this moves out quickly late this afternoon and evening - once it moves out (whatever does form) then all is clear as far as any threat for severe storms.
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Here is another zoomed in map - showing the area of greatest concern - the darker the area - the greater concern or chance for some severe storms.
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Again - part of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky
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Any thunderstorms that do form will quickly move out this evening - leaving us with windy conditions and cooler temperatures into the weekend.
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The next weather maker shows up on Sunday into Monday - right now it appears a dry cold front will move through our region.
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See the extended forecast for beyond the weekend.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 25th-March 10th
Event: Active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Likely going to be some severe weather over the coming weeks
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 25th-March 10th
Event: Active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Likely going to be some severe weather over the coming weeks
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0% Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
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1. Couple of systems to monitor in the long range - the first one being on Sunday/Monday. Right now it appears a dry cold front will move through our region. Not a big deal.
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The next system arrives around Tuesday/Wednesday - this could bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Unsure on how unstable the atmosphere will become for that event - monitor for updates.
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Another systems towards next weekend - more rain.
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Appears we will have a fairly active 2-3 week period ahead of us with several shots at heavy rain and thunderstorms.
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The next system arrives around Tuesday/Wednesday - this could bring showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Unsure on how unstable the atmosphere will become for that event - monitor for updates.
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Another systems towards next weekend - more rain.
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Appears we will have a fairly active 2-3 week period ahead of us with several shots at heavy rain and thunderstorms.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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