February 1st - 2nd: A mild start to February

February 1st-2nd - 2012
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night:  Some clouds - especially early.  Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early in the evening.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 10%   | Rainfall totals:  0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday:  Quite a bit of sun expected - mild temperatures.      
Above normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 58 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Thursday night:  Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s and lower 40s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10%  Rainfall totals: 0" 
Confidence in this forecast is  very high
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Friday:  An increase in clouds - a shower possible late in the day.  Windy at times - mild.

Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 56-62 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times  
Precipitation probability - 20%  Rainfall totals:  0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high 
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
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No major concerns - will monitor Friday night into Saturday for some thunderstorms.



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No

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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No big changes in this forecast.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Wednesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Thursday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Thursday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Friday: Watch for updates concerning Friday night and Saturday - some thunderstorms will be possible.
Friday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  Late
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here


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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

HEADLINE: 
Happy February!  Who is ready for another month of winter?  I would just like to have a solid day of winter.  Let alone a whole month.  I do not have any good news for snow lovers.  But - for those of you who have been LOVING the mild weather - well you will have several more days to enjoy.
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First - before I go any further - let me invite you to a storm spotter class - the NWS Office out of Paducah, KY will be sponsoring Storm Spotter Webinars - they will hold several more in the coming weeks.  These are FREE of charge and they are interactive - you can ask questions!  We need as many storm spotters as we can possibly get - we don't need you driving into storms - we don't advocate that behavior - we need AT HOME SPOTTERS or AT WORK SPOTTERS - please consider taking one of the courses - here is the information - click here
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Temperatures will rise into the upper 50s on both Thursday and Friday - there will probably be some low 60s, as well across the region.  Gusty winds will arrive on Friday - this ahead of our next storm system.
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Speaking of warm temperatures - check out the last seven days - how much above normal temperatures have been (this has been anything but a typical winter across the United States).
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Here are the forecast high temperatures for Thursday - again with the mild weather!
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Our next storm system, as mentioned above, arrives on Friday afternoon into Sunday.  Rain and thunderstorms will develop across the Missouri and Arklatex Valleys on Friday and spread east into our region.  Right now it appears the risk for severe weather is low - but possible on Friday night and Saturday - stay tuned.   I will monitor and update accordingly.
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Rainfall amounts from the weekend storm will likely be in the 0.50-1.00" range - some data indicates a bit more and some less.  We will cut the difference and go with the above for now.
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Here are the broad-brushed precipitation maps for Friday into Saturday - keep in mind most of the rain will be on Friday night into Saturday
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I can't find any big snowstorms in the long range - we will keep watching.  March will be here soon enough! 
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 



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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.


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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 5th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now.  Potential for 5-8 precipitation events.  NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events.  Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures.  Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.  This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.

Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible.  A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium


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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1. Nothing major to talk about in the long range - hints of several cold shots over the coming 2 week period - but mixed with, of course, above normal temperatures.  I hope we don't have a cold spring.  I checked into some historical data and there does not seem to be a strong correlation between warm winters and cold springs.  
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Next update will be tomorrow!  Please consider signing up for one of the NWS spotter courses - they are FREE and interactive. 
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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