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Showers and thunderstorms have moved off to our east. This leaves us with cloudy skies. Just a few showers and drizzle may pop up this afternoon - maybe a thunderstorm in southern counties. The upper level low moves over the region later this afternoon and tonight - this may cause a few showers or sprinkles, as well.
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Winds will be gusty at times this afternoon.
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Enjoy your Saturday
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Beau
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February 3rd-4th - 2012
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Showers and a few thunderstorms likely - some patches of fog. Radars - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Fog in some areas - chance for rain showers/thunderstorms early during the morning. Then a small chance for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours - mainly over our southern counties. Otherwise - mostly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 60 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southeast winds at 10 mph - gusting to over 20 mph at times
Precipitation probability - 80% early | Rainfall totals: 0.20"0.50" locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Cloudy with a few showers/storms - especially early in the evening - best chance for thunderstorms will be our southern counties. Otherwise - patches of fog.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northerly winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Quite a few clouds around the area. A sprinkle possible.
Highs: around 46-52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns. Will monitor Saturday afternoon for a few heavy thunderstorms along the cold front - mainly over our southern counties. Otherwise - rain and storms over the whole area tonight into Saturday morning - early.
Fog could be a problem on Saturday into Sunday in some of our counties.
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Whether or not a few thunderstorms become severe over our southern counties on Saturday afternoon/evening - isolated damaging wind possible. This would be along the cold front - mainly over far southeast MO/west KY/AR/TN. Questionable instability - but a few storms should form late in the day before frontal passage. Otherwise widespread rain/storms tonight into early Saturday morning over the whole region.
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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Tweaked rain chances and temperatures.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: Small chance for a damaging winds gust or severe storm on Saturday afternoon/evening as the cold front passes through - most likely to our south - more likely over our southern counties vs central or northern counties.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: Small chance for a damaging winds gust or severe storm on Saturday afternoon/evening as the cold front passes through - most likely to our south - more likely over our southern counties vs central or northern counties.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Folks - the numbers are in - December/January was the 2nd warmest on record for Paducah, Kentucky! Quite amazing when you think that just last year we were in the top 15 coldest December/February's on record. The wild swings continue. What is new? We should be used to this song and dance by now. One extreme to the next. Expect the unexpected.
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Someone should sing - here comes the rain again. Rain is overspreading the region as I type this - from southwest to northeast.
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First - before I go any further - let me invite you to a storm spotter class - the NWS Office out of Paducah, KY will be sponsoring Storm Spotter Webinars - they will hold several more in the coming weeks. These are FREE of charge and they are interactive - you can ask questions! We need as many storm spotters as we can possibly get - we don't need you driving into storms - we don't advocate that behavior - we need AT HOME SPOTTERS or AT WORK SPOTTERS - please consider taking one of the courses - here is the information - click here
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A widespread rain event will impact the region tonight into Saturday morning - early. Rainfall totals in the 0.40-1.00" range appear likely - certainly can't rule out some heavier totals. Rumbles of thunder will also be possible.
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There could be quite a bit of fog later tonight into Saturday, as well. Some counties may need a dense fog advisory. Use caution. This fog may reform on Saturday night into Sunday morning, as well.
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The water vapor satellite image shows the system winding up in the central United States
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There will be another small chance for a few thunderstorms late on Saturday afternoon as the actual cold front advances through the region. Instability is low - the threat for severe weather is low. Right now it appears if those storms were to form that they would be mainly over far southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas, western Kentucky, and Tennessee. Will monitor and update if anything changes. Again - the severe weather risk appears very low.
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By the way - I have added TWO new interactive city radars - once for the Memphis into eastern Arkansas area and the other one will cover central and Eastern Kentucky - you can check those out on the radar page.
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Here is Saturday's broad-brushed forecast precipitation map - you can see there is a lot of precipitation on the map!
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Here is the thunderstorm outlook, for Saturday, from the SPC - you can see they have us in general thunderstorms - but mostly below severe levels.
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Fairly tame weather after this evening - several weak storm systems will move in and through the region next week. It appears we may see a more active pattern as we push towards next weekend into the following 2 week period.
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I still can't find a significant snow storm in the cards - I keep looking. We are quickly running out of winter! I will be watching a system for Tuesday night into Thursday - could be cold enough for some snowflakes - confidence is low.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Folks - the numbers are in - December/January was the 2nd warmest on record for Paducah, Kentucky! Quite amazing when you think that just last year we were in the top 15 coldest December/February's on record. The wild swings continue. What is new? We should be used to this song and dance by now. One extreme to the next. Expect the unexpected.
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Someone should sing - here comes the rain again. Rain is overspreading the region as I type this - from southwest to northeast.
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First - before I go any further - let me invite you to a storm spotter class - the NWS Office out of Paducah, KY will be sponsoring Storm Spotter Webinars - they will hold several more in the coming weeks. These are FREE of charge and they are interactive - you can ask questions! We need as many storm spotters as we can possibly get - we don't need you driving into storms - we don't advocate that behavior - we need AT HOME SPOTTERS or AT WORK SPOTTERS - please consider taking one of the courses - here is the information - click here
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A widespread rain event will impact the region tonight into Saturday morning - early. Rainfall totals in the 0.40-1.00" range appear likely - certainly can't rule out some heavier totals. Rumbles of thunder will also be possible.
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There could be quite a bit of fog later tonight into Saturday, as well. Some counties may need a dense fog advisory. Use caution. This fog may reform on Saturday night into Sunday morning, as well.
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The water vapor satellite image shows the system winding up in the central United States
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There will be another small chance for a few thunderstorms late on Saturday afternoon as the actual cold front advances through the region. Instability is low - the threat for severe weather is low. Right now it appears if those storms were to form that they would be mainly over far southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas, western Kentucky, and Tennessee. Will monitor and update if anything changes. Again - the severe weather risk appears very low.
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By the way - I have added TWO new interactive city radars - once for the Memphis into eastern Arkansas area and the other one will cover central and Eastern Kentucky - you can check those out on the radar page.
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Here is Saturday's broad-brushed forecast precipitation map - you can see there is a lot of precipitation on the map!
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Here is the thunderstorm outlook, for Saturday, from the SPC - you can see they have us in general thunderstorms - but mostly below severe levels.
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Fairly tame weather after this evening - several weak storm systems will move in and through the region next week. It appears we may see a more active pattern as we push towards next weekend into the following 2 week period.
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I still can't find a significant snow storm in the cards - I keep looking. We are quickly running out of winter! I will be watching a system for Tuesday night into Thursday - could be cold enough for some snowflakes - confidence is low.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here..
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here..
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events. Biggest precipitation event may be around the 3rd and 4th.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms - isolated severe storms possible around 3rd or 4th. Then fairly quiet pattern for several days after that.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events. Biggest precipitation event may be around the 3rd and 4th.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms - isolated severe storms possible around 3rd or 4th. Then fairly quiet pattern for several days after that.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
. Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 5%Thursday - 5%
Friday - 0%..
1. No big changes - sound familiar? We do have some colder shots of air for the next couple of weeks - but that will most likely be mixed in with above normal temperatures, as well.
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I will be watching a weak system for Tuesday night into Thursday - right now precipitation probabilities appear low. I will monitor as new data becomes available. Some data shows a chance for snow. Again - confidence is low.
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The next decent shot at precipitation might be towards next weekend.
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I will be watching a weak system for Tuesday night into Thursday - right now precipitation probabilities appear low. I will monitor as new data becomes available. Some data shows a chance for snow. Again - confidence is low.
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The next decent shot at precipitation might be towards next weekend.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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