8 PM UPDATE
Snow has changed to a mix of sleet and freezing rain/rain - this means that accumulations will be less over far southern IL, southeast MO, and western KY - there has been anywhere from a dusting to 1-2" reported over parts of southeast MO and southern IL - less over far southern IL and western KY
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Additional snow accumulations are likely to be very light - mostly sleet mixed with some snow - and freezing rain - eventually perhaps plain rain later tonight.
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Some roads are slick this evening.
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Temperatures are expected to slowly rise into the wee hours of the morning - this may help keep roads from being too slick or hazardous (once morning arrives).
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For areas that change to all rain - the dusting of snow may even melt.
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Previous update below...
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February 13th-14th - 2012
Sunday evening into Monday afternoon update
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: Snow, sleet, and light freezing rain (rain that freezes upon contact of surfaces) - frozen precipitation may turn to rain over parts of the area (mainly southern portions of the area). Slick roads are possible tonight over the area. A variety of winter weather advisories have been issued by our friends over at the National Weather Service. Latest advisories - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 30-34 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.30" - locally heavier (this is melted precip - for the snow forecast totals see below)
Confidence in this forecast is moderate
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Tuesday: Frozen precipitation ending - some light drizzle or light freezing drizzle possible during the early morning hours. Partial clearing possible during the afternoon hours. Roads could be hazardous during the morning hours.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 34-38 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: West/southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% early | Rainfall totals: After 7 am - 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies. Watch for black ice (roads where whatever snow or sleet has fallen on Monday night melts and refreezes).
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 20s and lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Calm winds - light at times
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Calm winds - light at times
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Partly sunny and mild - a slight chance for rain during the afternoon hours.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 45-50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% late in the day | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less - better chance of rainfall on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Obviously the winter weather event is the main concern for the next 12-24 hours. Snow, sleet, freezing rain - freezing drizzle will continue into the overnight hours. Slick roads will certainly be possible - especially untreated or side roads. Use caution - remember that it only takes a tiny amount of freezing precipitation to cause roads to become slick and hazardous. Use care if you must be out tonight.
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There is one high resolution models that is showing a band of 2-4" of snow - locally heavier - over parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky - this does concern me a little bit as it is not agreeing with other data. As we have seen over the years - a band of heavier precipitation can form during winter storms and this can throw a forecast completely off. This is something that will have to be monitored. Some counties could have more precipitation than forecast.
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Latest advisories - click here.
Check road conditions. Latest advisories - click here.
The BIG wild card in this forecast is just how much precipitation falls tonight. Overall the model data is in fair agreement - however, there are some high resolution - short range models that show a band of heavier snow and sleet totals over parts of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.
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A general forecast of 1-2" of snow/sleet over far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee is reasonable. But if the high resolutions models are correct then there could be a band of 3-5" of snow - I have low confidence in this actually happening - but I felt the need to mention it based on the one high resolution model. This makes for a wild card in the forecast.
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Frozen precipitation will also mix with rain later tonight - however, the bulk of the precipitation may be over by the time it completely changes to rain.
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Bottom line - there could be some heavier bands of frozen precipitation in parts of our area tonight - this will end up being a now-cast. If you must be out and about tonight please use caution and check road conditions. Roads have been treated and should respond well to whatever falls - but there certainly could be some slick roads - it does not take much precipitation falling on cold road surfaces to cause problems. Road surfaces are cold.
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Areas further north in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will remain mostly snow - with a general 1-3" of snow likely in many counties with pockets of 3-4" not out of the question.
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If the frozen precipitation changes completely to rain, earlier than expected, in the southern parts of our area then that will cut down on any accumulations - including the possibility that some counties end up with little accumulation by tomorrow morning.
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Latest advisories - click here.
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Snow, sleet, and freezing rain/freezing drizzle will overspread the area this evening and tonight...
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Below are the probabilities for the different amounts of snow...
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It is more likely that precipitation will remain mostly snow over the northern half of the area - a better chance for a mixture of precipitation as you move further south in our region...
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Monday evening into Tuesday morning - for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee...
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There will be a 90% chance of a dusting of snow (meaning 1" or less of snow)
There will be a 50% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 40% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be a 10% chance of 3-4" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of more than 4" of snow falling
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Latest advisories - click here.
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Below are the probabilities for the different amounts of snow...
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It is more likely that precipitation will remain mostly snow over the northern half of the area - a better chance for a mixture of precipitation as you move further south in our region...
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Monday evening into Tuesday morning - for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee...
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There will be a 90% chance of a dusting of snow (meaning 1" or less of snow)
There will be a 50% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 40% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be a 10% chance of 3-4" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of more than 4" of snow falling
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Latest advisories - click here.
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8 PM - updated probabilities
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Biggest change in the forecast was to increase probabilities a little bit - also added in the wild card factor on a heavier band showing up on some of the short range model guidance.
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Biggest change in the forecast was to increase probabilities a little bit - also added in the wild card factor on a heavier band showing up on some of the short range model guidance.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Widespread frozen precipitation over the area this evening into the overnight hours. Latest advisories - click here.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Widespread frozen precipitation over the area this evening into the overnight hours. Latest advisories - click here.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Precipitation will come to an end on Tuesday morning.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tuesday - No
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: A winter weather maker is moving through the area this evening - a mixture of snow and sleet has been spreading northeast out of Missouri and Arkansas over the past few hours (Monday afternoon).
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There are some questions remaining as to how much frozen precipitation will occur tonight. Most of the model data is indicating a light event - however, there is one high resolution model that indicates a heavier band of frozen precipitation. This does cause me a little bit of concern - mainly because this model does a great job at forecasting snow.
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Here is the one model image that shows heavier snow/sleet vs the other models. The scale is at the bottom of the image.
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Temperatures this evening and tonight will be in the lower 30s once the precipitation begins. This will cause some roadways to become slick and hazardous. If you must be out and about tonight then use caution.
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Broad brushed precipitation map for tonight - keep in mind that most of the precip will end by tomorrow morning
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Temperatures are expected to rise a little bit tomorrow morning - this may help melt some of the snow and sleet - especially over the southern half of the region - say from Cape Girardeau to Evansville - southward. The amount of snow or sleet that falls will also impact where temperatures end up later tonight.
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Snow and sleet will likely mix with freezing rain and freezing drizzle later tonight - and change to rain in some counties - mainly the southern half of the area. Remember that freezing rain is rain that freezes upon impact of a surface. Obviously rain is just that - rain without freezing on any surface.
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The change over to freezing rain or just rain may occur towards the end of the event - late tonight.
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By Tuesday morning the precipitation will be exiting the region. We will be left with some clouds and cool temperatures.
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The next weather maker arrives on Wednesday - especially Wednesday night - this will bring rain to our region - possibly a rumble of thunder. Severe weather is not forecast. Just rain - rainfall totals will likely be less than 0.75"
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: A winter weather maker is moving through the area this evening - a mixture of snow and sleet has been spreading northeast out of Missouri and Arkansas over the past few hours (Monday afternoon).
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There are some questions remaining as to how much frozen precipitation will occur tonight. Most of the model data is indicating a light event - however, there is one high resolution model that indicates a heavier band of frozen precipitation. This does cause me a little bit of concern - mainly because this model does a great job at forecasting snow.
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Here is the one model image that shows heavier snow/sleet vs the other models. The scale is at the bottom of the image.
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Temperatures this evening and tonight will be in the lower 30s once the precipitation begins. This will cause some roadways to become slick and hazardous. If you must be out and about tonight then use caution.
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Broad brushed precipitation map for tonight - keep in mind that most of the precip will end by tomorrow morning
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Temperatures are expected to rise a little bit tomorrow morning - this may help melt some of the snow and sleet - especially over the southern half of the region - say from Cape Girardeau to Evansville - southward. The amount of snow or sleet that falls will also impact where temperatures end up later tonight.
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Snow and sleet will likely mix with freezing rain and freezing drizzle later tonight - and change to rain in some counties - mainly the southern half of the area. Remember that freezing rain is rain that freezes upon impact of a surface. Obviously rain is just that - rain without freezing on any surface.
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The change over to freezing rain or just rain may occur towards the end of the event - late tonight.
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By Tuesday morning the precipitation will be exiting the region. We will be left with some clouds and cool temperatures.
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The next weather maker arrives on Wednesday - especially Wednesday night - this will bring rain to our region - possibly a rumble of thunder. Severe weather is not forecast. Just rain - rainfall totals will likely be less than 0.75"
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow forecast is above in the main discussion - no additional snow or ice is in the forecast for the remainder of the week (once this event moves out)....
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Snow forecast is above in the main discussion - no additional snow or ice is in the forecast for the remainder of the week (once this event moves out)....
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Monday night - 100% - the NWS is already issuing advisories/watches
Monday night - 100% - the NWS is already issuing advisories/watches
Tuesday - 100% early in the morning hours - advisories have already been issued
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
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1. The next weather maker arrives on Wednesday night and Thursday - this will bring rain to our region. Rainfall amounts of 0.40-0.70" will be possible with that event. Snow and ice are not forecasted - nor is severe weather.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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