Friday evening into Saturday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Mostly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Near calm winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds - a chance for light rain late in the day.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 50-55 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Cloudy with rain likely - rain may change to snow late - better chance for snow accumulation as you go east and southeast in the region - less chance of snow accumulation over southeast MO and southern IL/southwest IN - better chance of some snow sticking over parts of west KY and west TN - closer to KY/TN border the better chance of snow accumulating.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Wind: North/northeast at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% over far southeast MO/southern IL/western KY/western TN - less chance as you go further north and west in our area. Parts of southeast MO and southern IL will likely remain mostly dry - esp as you move towards Farmington, MO - Mt Vernon, IL | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is LOW
Wind: North/northeast at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% over far southeast MO/southern IL/western KY/western TN - less chance as you go further north and west in our area. Parts of southeast MO and southern IL will likely remain mostly dry - esp as you move towards Farmington, MO - Mt Vernon, IL | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is LOW
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Sunday: A chance for snow before 1 pm - precipitation will end from west to east. Becoming partly cloudy and cool. Windy at times. Cooler..
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 35-44 degrees the colder readings will be where snow falls - the warmer regions will be where little or no snow fell | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 60% early | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is LOW
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The concern will arrive on Saturday night and Sunday morning - mainly over parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee - rain will probably change to snow with some slushy accumulation possible on grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces. If the snow comes down hard enough then some accumulation on roads will also be possible. Best chances for accumulation will be in the outlined area on the graphic below.
If you have travel plans on Saturday night or Sunday morning then check updated forecasts.
Wild card is obvious this time around - will snow accumulate on Saturday night and Sunday morning? The track of the area of low pressure will be KEY in how much snow falls over parts of our region.
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There is a good chance that snow won't accumulate over most of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - southwest Indiana.
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There is a better chance of accumulation over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Monitor for updated forecasts because the track of the area of low pressure is uncertain. Even 24 hours before the event.
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The system appears to have slowed down a little bit - however, precipitation should come to an end by early Sunday afternoon - precipitation will end from west to east.
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Snow will be possible on Saturday night and Sunday morning - best chance for some accumulation will be over parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee. See the outlined area below.
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Including Farmington, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Sikeston, Carbondale, Metropolis, Marion, Mt Vernon, Vienna, Harrisburg, Evansville, Owensboro, Smithland, Providence, Salem (KY),
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There will be a 90% chance of NO snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 10% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
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Snowfall probabilities
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Saturday evening into Sunday morning - for southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, southern Illinois and southeast Missouri....
Including Farmington, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Sikeston, Carbondale, Metropolis, Marion, Mt Vernon, Vienna, Harrisburg, Evansville, Owensboro, Smithland, Providence, Salem (KY),
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There will be a 90% chance of NO snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 10% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 5% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
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Snowfall probabilities
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Saturday evening into Sunday morning - for far western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee....
Including Paducah/Wickliffe/Bardwell/Clinton/Mayfield/Calvert City, Martin, Union City, Tiptonville...
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There will be a 90% chance of no snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 40% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
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There will be a 90% chance of no snow accumulation to 1" of snow
There will be a 40% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of 2-3" of snow falling
There will be a 10% chance that snow will exceed 3"
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Snowfall probabilities
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Probabilities of snowfall amounts on Saturday evening into Sunday morning - for the rest of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee....
Including Paris (TN), Bowling Green, Hopkinsville, Dover, Clarksville, Murray, KY Lake, Morgantown... .
There will be a 70% chance of a dusting to 1" of snow
There will be a 60% chance of 1-2" of snow falling
There will be a 40% chance of 2-4" of snow falling
There will be a 20% chance of snow exceeding 4" .
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Updated all areas of the forecast - note that the track of the low pressure area will be key as to whether snow accumulates in our region - the probabilities are above.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow will be possible..
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some morning snow over some of our region - mainly eastern and southeastern counties
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: A tough forecast for Saturday night into Sunday. There have been all sorts of chatter on the internet about a big snowstorm impacting our region over the coming 48 hour period. However, I would be cautious of biting on select model output.
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The exact track of the winter storm is still in question this afternoon. Yes - it is true that some models have been showing anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of snow over parts of the area for Saturday night into Sunday. I have discounted these amounts for most of our region - the area of low pressure will likely not track far enough north - nor the 850 mb low far enough north to cause such accumulations.
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With that said - there is a high amount of uncertainty regarding this storm. Some of its features are still not within the model grids - that means that the system has not been fully ingested into the computer model algorithms - that means that the track of the low could change. A shift of 50-100 miles could make a huge difference in the weather forecast over our region.
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If this storm trends south then we may see little impact in our local counties. If the storm tracks further north then a heavier precipitation will occur. The thoughts on today's blog are my best forecasts based on current data. Monitor for updates if you are interested in this storm.
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In addition to the track of the area of low pressure and upper level features there are also issues with boundary layer temperatures - what does that mean? Basically the temperatures at the surface will be marginal for snow accumulation. With that said - if temperatures fall below 32 degrees and you have a heavy snow band set up over some of our eastern/southeastern counties then snow will accumulate. The wet/slushy kind of snow.
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Temperatures on Saturday will be warm, as well - this will help keep any accumulations down. Highs on Saturday will be well into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
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I do believe that once the rain changes to snow that temperatures will remain cold enough for it to stay snow.
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Right now the probabilities for snow (see above) give you the best idea of what I am expecting. There may be different forecasts floating around - but that is how I see this system setting up. I will be monitoring what the NWS says later today and will update accordingly.
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Temperatures on Sunday into Monday will be cooler if and where snow falls. Otherwise - above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
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This map below shows you where I believe the best chance for some accumulating snow will occur.
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Click image for real view size
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The broad-brushed precipitation outlook
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Let's take a look at the NAM forecast from www.wright-weather.com - my favorite source for model data.
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This is what the radar is expected to look like on Saturday night and Sunday morning - see that SHARP cut-off between precip and no precipitation - this is one reason this is going to be a difficult forecast.
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Click images for real size view
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This first image is for around 3 am on Sunday morning
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These images are for Sunday morning - between 4 am and 9 am - you can see the sharp cutoff in precipitation.
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Again - monitor for updated forecasts on this storm system - ANY change in the track of the area of low pressure will have significant impact on the above forecast.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: A tough forecast for Saturday night into Sunday. There have been all sorts of chatter on the internet about a big snowstorm impacting our region over the coming 48 hour period. However, I would be cautious of biting on select model output.
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The exact track of the winter storm is still in question this afternoon. Yes - it is true that some models have been showing anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of snow over parts of the area for Saturday night into Sunday. I have discounted these amounts for most of our region - the area of low pressure will likely not track far enough north - nor the 850 mb low far enough north to cause such accumulations.
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With that said - there is a high amount of uncertainty regarding this storm. Some of its features are still not within the model grids - that means that the system has not been fully ingested into the computer model algorithms - that means that the track of the low could change. A shift of 50-100 miles could make a huge difference in the weather forecast over our region.
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If this storm trends south then we may see little impact in our local counties. If the storm tracks further north then a heavier precipitation will occur. The thoughts on today's blog are my best forecasts based on current data. Monitor for updates if you are interested in this storm.
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In addition to the track of the area of low pressure and upper level features there are also issues with boundary layer temperatures - what does that mean? Basically the temperatures at the surface will be marginal for snow accumulation. With that said - if temperatures fall below 32 degrees and you have a heavy snow band set up over some of our eastern/southeastern counties then snow will accumulate. The wet/slushy kind of snow.
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Temperatures on Saturday will be warm, as well - this will help keep any accumulations down. Highs on Saturday will be well into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
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I do believe that once the rain changes to snow that temperatures will remain cold enough for it to stay snow.
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Right now the probabilities for snow (see above) give you the best idea of what I am expecting. There may be different forecasts floating around - but that is how I see this system setting up. I will be monitoring what the NWS says later today and will update accordingly.
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Temperatures on Sunday into Monday will be cooler if and where snow falls. Otherwise - above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
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This map below shows you where I believe the best chance for some accumulating snow will occur.
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Click image for real view size
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The broad-brushed precipitation outlook
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Let's take a look at the NAM forecast from www.wright-weather.com - my favorite source for model data.
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This is what the radar is expected to look like on Saturday night and Sunday morning - see that SHARP cut-off between precip and no precipitation - this is one reason this is going to be a difficult forecast.
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Click images for real size view
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This first image is for around 3 am on Sunday morning
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These images are for Sunday morning - between 4 am and 9 am - you can see the sharp cutoff in precipitation.
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Again - monitor for updated forecasts on this storm system - ANY change in the track of the area of low pressure will have significant impact on the above forecast.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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See the snow forecast above - top of the page...
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See the snow forecast above - top of the page...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Saturday - 0%
Saturday night - 40%
Sunday - 40%
Monday - 0%
Saturday night - 40%
Sunday - 40%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
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1. The extended forecast includes some rain chances on Tuesday into Thursday of next week - right now I do not see any significant severe weather threats or other. Above normal temperatures will likely continue into next week.
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A more significant weather event is possible around February 25th-28th - still way too far out for certainties on storm track or sensible weather.
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A more significant weather event is possible around February 25th-28th - still way too far out for certainties on storm track or sensible weather.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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