Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon forecast
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few light rain showers - possibly snow flurries late - temperatures over the northern half of the region may support light freezing drizzle. Snow accumulation will be less than 1"
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a sprinkle or flurry/light snow in the morning. Colder.
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 37-41 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies. Colder. More seasonable temperatures.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny and a bit chilly.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 40 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Rain will change to a mix late tonight - could be some minor accumulation over parts of the area - less than 1".
Most likely no. Check conditions in the morning in the event some light snow does develop - northern counties will be the coldest.
No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No significant snow in this short range forecast - a few flurries/light snow possible late tonight and Wednesday morning - accumulations will be minor
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A mix of light snow or snow/freezing rain late tonight. Accumulations will be light - if any.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A mix of light snow or snow/freezing rain late tonight. Accumulations will be light - if any.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A flurry possible - light snow. Accumulation light if any at all.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Another nice day for the region - one of many this winter! Changes are brewing, however! Colder air - more typical of February - will push into the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will be accompanied by a few light rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Not expected to be a big deal. Will have to watch the early morning hours in the event temperatures dip below freezing - could be a few slick spots on overpasses.
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Accumulations of snow tonight will be light - if any at all. The best chance for accumulation will probably be over our northern and northeastern counties - from Cape Girardeau to Evansville northward. Other areas may see little or no accumulation.
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Winter has been absent from the United States but it has been roaring across Europe and even into Africa. Severe cold and snow has struck many areas. Here are some photos from the WeatherUnderground.
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Click each image for a full size view
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From the Climate Central Blog - this photo is from Europe - you can almost feel the cold air! Again click the image for real size view.
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Back to our region of the world...
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No major precipitation events are in the forecast for the upcoming week. We may experience a few chances for light precipitation as we are in a fast flow jet stream pattern. One of those weak systems will arrive on Friday afternoon or Friday night - this could cause a few light showers to develop - perhaps mixed with snow.
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We will have to look towards the long range forecast for a more active precipitation pattern - see the extended forecast section of the blog below!
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Check out the lack of snow cover across the nation - quite amazing.
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Let's check out the temperature departure forecast maps for the next few days - these maps tell you HOW MUCH above or below normal temperatures will be - these aren't the forecast temperatures - rather these are the DEPARTURES. You can see that we are going to average below normal for the upcoming week - that is a big change from recent weeks (we have been above normal for weeks on end)
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You can see a reinforcing shot of cold air for Friday and Saturday - note how the blue deepens over our region - that is because another cold front will pass through during that time period.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Another nice day for the region - one of many this winter! Changes are brewing, however! Colder air - more typical of February - will push into the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will be accompanied by a few light rain showers or snow showers/flurries. Not expected to be a big deal. Will have to watch the early morning hours in the event temperatures dip below freezing - could be a few slick spots on overpasses.
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Accumulations of snow tonight will be light - if any at all. The best chance for accumulation will probably be over our northern and northeastern counties - from Cape Girardeau to Evansville northward. Other areas may see little or no accumulation.
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Winter has been absent from the United States but it has been roaring across Europe and even into Africa. Severe cold and snow has struck many areas. Here are some photos from the WeatherUnderground.
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Click each image for a full size view
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From the Climate Central Blog - this photo is from Europe - you can almost feel the cold air! Again click the image for real size view.
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Back to our region of the world...
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No major precipitation events are in the forecast for the upcoming week. We may experience a few chances for light precipitation as we are in a fast flow jet stream pattern. One of those weak systems will arrive on Friday afternoon or Friday night - this could cause a few light showers to develop - perhaps mixed with snow.
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We will have to look towards the long range forecast for a more active precipitation pattern - see the extended forecast section of the blog below!
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Check out the lack of snow cover across the nation - quite amazing.
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Let's check out the temperature departure forecast maps for the next few days - these maps tell you HOW MUCH above or below normal temperatures will be - these aren't the forecast temperatures - rather these are the DEPARTURES. You can see that we are going to average below normal for the upcoming week - that is a big change from recent weeks (we have been above normal for weeks on end)
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You can see a reinforcing shot of cold air for Friday and Saturday - note how the blue deepens over our region - that is because another cold front will pass through during that time period.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Light - very light precipitation during the next 24 hours
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Light - very light precipitation during the next 24 hours
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Light snow or a mix late tonight (Tuesday night and Wednesday morning) - accumulations, if any at all, will be light.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Light snow or a mix late tonight (Tuesday night and Wednesday morning) - accumulations, if any at all, will be light.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-14th
Event: Semi-active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly some light events - see short range forecast
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: February 13th-25th
Event: A more active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Possibly - potential for a significant event somewhere in the TN Valley region
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - potential for a winter storm or two - will need to monitor
Details: Several shots of cold air - with warm air - battle zone likely near our region.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
. Wednesday - 0% Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0% Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 5% - will be watching a system - possible frozen precipitation
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 5% - will be watching a system - possible frozen precipitation
Tuesday - 5% - will be watching a system - possible frozen precipitation .
1. The longer range forecast will be made up of a more active pattern than we are experiencing this week. The finer details - will have to be worked out.
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It appears our region will be in line for several shots at precipitation as we push towards Monday of next week into the following weekend. A fairly active jet stream pattern should set up over the central United States. Whether this means a chance for snow or rain - yet to be decided. We will have to watch each system and see where the cold air is played.
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Whether any of these systems will actually produce snowflakes - unsure. The cold/warm boundary may be close to our region. Tough to call this far out with each system as to whether or not it will have cold air to work with - or for that matter enough moisture to work with.
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The EC model (which I like and prefer this winter) shows some light precipitation around Friday night/Saturday and again around Monday - then a bigger precipitation event around the middle of next week. It is waffling on how much cold air stays in place next week across our local counties. Leaving me to stick with the "we shall see" part of the forecast as far as precipitation AND cold air.
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A reinforcing shot of cold air is forecast to arrive on Saturday - this could spark a few snow flurries - moisture will be limited.
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Another shot at cold air appears possible for Sunday night into Monday - reinforcing shot. Data indicates at least a chance for precipitation around Monday or Monday night.
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There is at least a chance for one of the storm system to phase or a partial phase - which would mean a deeper area of low pressure and perhaps a bigger event. This is far from certain. Yesterday's models were fairly bullish on this idea - last nights models didn't phase quite as much - we will see what the coming days will bring.
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Remember that the long range part of this forecast is speculation based on current trends and model data. Confidence in any long range forecast is always low.
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Here is the latest precipitation outlooks for the six to ten day period ahead - the eight to fourteen day period and the official February forecast - all of these show above normal precipitation probabilities.
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It appears our region will be in line for several shots at precipitation as we push towards Monday of next week into the following weekend. A fairly active jet stream pattern should set up over the central United States. Whether this means a chance for snow or rain - yet to be decided. We will have to watch each system and see where the cold air is played.
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Whether any of these systems will actually produce snowflakes - unsure. The cold/warm boundary may be close to our region. Tough to call this far out with each system as to whether or not it will have cold air to work with - or for that matter enough moisture to work with.
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The EC model (which I like and prefer this winter) shows some light precipitation around Friday night/Saturday and again around Monday - then a bigger precipitation event around the middle of next week. It is waffling on how much cold air stays in place next week across our local counties. Leaving me to stick with the "we shall see" part of the forecast as far as precipitation AND cold air.
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A reinforcing shot of cold air is forecast to arrive on Saturday - this could spark a few snow flurries - moisture will be limited.
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Another shot at cold air appears possible for Sunday night into Monday - reinforcing shot. Data indicates at least a chance for precipitation around Monday or Monday night.
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There is at least a chance for one of the storm system to phase or a partial phase - which would mean a deeper area of low pressure and perhaps a bigger event. This is far from certain. Yesterday's models were fairly bullish on this idea - last nights models didn't phase quite as much - we will see what the coming days will bring.
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Remember that the long range part of this forecast is speculation based on current trends and model data. Confidence in any long range forecast is always low.
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Here is the latest precipitation outlooks for the six to ten day period ahead - the eight to fourteen day period and the official February forecast - all of these show above normal precipitation probabilities.
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And in case you forgot what a beautiful planet we live on :) - this image is from NASA - the blue marble - click for real size view
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And in case you forgot what a beautiful planet we live on :) - this image is from NASA - the blue marble - click for real size view
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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