Your Hometown Weather: February 2012

February 29th-March 1st: Severe weather likely Thursday night/Friday

February 29th-March 1st - 2012
Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon update
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I applaud the NWS Offices for their excellent coverage of this mornings event - excellent job in the warning process.
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Local media - all local media - did a great job this morning. I can't list them all - but you know who you are - thank you for the wall to wall coverage. More lives would have been lost had there not been warnings and coverage.
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Wednesday night: Clearing skies - cooler.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday: Sunny and mild.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 65-70 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: South to southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies - a chance for thunderstorms late at night. A few storms could produce hail and strong winds.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" locally heavier in a few cells
Confidence in this forecast is high

Friday: A chance for thunderstorms - some storms may be severe with hail, high winds, and tornadoes.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 70-75 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-30 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-1.50" - heavier thunderstorms produce the heavier amounts

Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Severe thunderstorms possible late Thursday night into Friday - two rounds. One round after 11 pm on Thursday night into the 8 am time frame - another round possible late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

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Yes - listen for updates on the weather Thursday night into Friday.

The first wild card is the development of severe thunderstorms late on Thursday night into the EARLY AM hours of Friday along and north of the warm front. Some hail storms will be possible - along with high winds. This is a conditional threat.
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The second wild card in the forecast will be the placement of the greatest threat of severe weather on Friday - listen for updates.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Thursday night : A few severe thunderstorms will be possible - large hail and high winds possible.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Friday: Severe weather is likely to occur on Friday - large hail, high winds, tornadoes possible in or near our region.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday - No
Thursday night - possible
Friday - Yes - watches will likely be issued in or near our region
Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - No

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Have yet to sleep - but wanted to this update out. A more detailed outlook will be issued on Thursday. Thank you everyone who helped last night with storm reports - your reports helped save lives.
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A major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes struck our region overnight. This event over-achieved in its potential. There were several damaging tornadoes in our region- we knew there could be tornadoes - but the strength and longevity of the tornadoes was amazing.
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Sadly numerous people were killed by the storms last night and this morning - more than 100 injured. The exact death toll is still being assessed. Millions of dollars in damage were caused by this mornings tornado outbreak. Hundreds of homes were damaged or destroyed.
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One tornado, we believe (waiting to hear from the NWS) crossed through Ballard County into McCracken County - and ended in Massac County. Other tornadoes crossed southeast Missouri and into southern Illinois. The hardest hit town was Harrisburg, Illinois. Damage in Harrisburg was at least EF3 - if not greater.
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Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted by last nights storms.
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Here is the official outlook from SPC for Thursday night and then Friday - keep in mind there could be two rounds of severe weather - one Thursday night and one again on Friday.
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This graphic below is mainly VERY late Thursday night and the second graphic is all day Friday
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This threat area could move around a bit - SPC normally fine tunes the forecast as more data becomes available. Don't focus on the exact area of risk above - focus on the overall threat for severe weather.
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I am concerned about the potential severe weather outbreak on Thursday night and especially on Friday for our region. Please stay alert for updates on this next storm system.

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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This is ONLY through 7 pm Thursday and does not include after that time frame.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No time for the extended outlook today.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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February 28th-29th: Some storms tonight ending on Wednesday

February 28th-29th - 2012
Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon update
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Tuesday night: Increasingly cloudy - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Isolated severe weather can not be ruled out. Steady or rising temperatures. Windy at times. National Weather Service Paducah, Kentucky Web-Site will have any watches and warnings that are issued - click here
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusty at times.
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"0.50" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for mainly morning and early afternoon thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may linger over the eastern part of our region into the afternoon hours. It will be windy and mild.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 70 degrees - temperatures may fall late in the day - behind the cold front. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: Winds turning more from the west as the day wears on - wind speeds of 15-30 mph - higher gusts likely.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"0.50" - scattered in nature - locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies. Cooler
Near normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 30s and lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Thursday: Mostly sunny skies and mild.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 60-64 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: Becoming southerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Concern will be for a few strong or severe thunderstorms tonight and on Wednesday morning. There could be a few severe weather warnings. Main concern would be high winds and small hail. Can't rule out a tornado or two because the wind fields are so strong. There is a lot of uncertainty on the timing of the best chance for heavy weather. Best advice is just to keep the NOAA Weather Radio on - check local media - I will keep some threads going tonight on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page.
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What could go wrong with this forecast?
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Some of the data indicates very little activity with the front late tonight and early tomorrow morning. This leaves me with some uncertainty. We will just have to monitor the trends during the overnight hours and see how things develop.
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National Weather Service Paducah, Kentucky Web-Site will have any watches and warnings that are issued - click here

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Possible - listen for any watches and/or warnings that may have to be issued by the Storm Prediction Center and/or the National Weather Service.
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National Weather Service Paducah, Kentucky Web-Site will have any watches and warnings that are issued - click here

Main wild card is the timing of any severe weather - IF severe storms occur at all. This is not a clear cut case for severe weather. Instability is lacking - however the wind fields will be very strong. Can one make up the different for the other? This is what forecasters will be watching later this evening and into the early morning hours.
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A few reports of severe weather will be possible in and near our region. Listen for updates. There continues to be some uncertainty as to just how much thunderstorm activity will develop tonight.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Yes - a few thunderstorms could become severe. National Weather Service Paducah, Kentucky Web-Site will have any watches and warnings that are issued - click here
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday: Yes - there could be a few severe thunderstorms - even during the early morning hours. The risk should shift east through the day. Monitor for updates.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.

Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Yes - watches are likely in or near our region. Remember a watch simply means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms. Monitor for updates.
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No

Friday - Possible

Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - No

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Gooooood afternoon everyone - what a beautiful day it has been outside! Temperatures have soared into the 60s. You have GOT to love this weather - remember it is FEBRUARY!
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A powerful storm system will create blizzard conditions tonight over parts of the northern United States - blizzard warnings are actually in effect for some states. That is just a reminder that winter IS still on the map - at least somewhere in the nation!
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The red zone is the blizzard warning. Anyone want to travel north for a snow chase?
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Let's take a look at the satellite view of this big storm - the first image is the visible satellite - you can see some breaks in the clouds over our region. The second image is the water vapor - check out the sharp divide between the moist air and the dry air out in the southwest United States.
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Our region will be on the warm side of the storm. This means an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight. A few of the storms could become severe. Right now the main concern appears to be damaging winds. Wind fields aloft are very strong. Some of these winds could mix down in the thunderstorms.
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When forecasting severe weather I like to see the dew points rise into the 50s and 60s in order to support severe weather. We still have fairly dry air over our region - however, dew points are on the rise. The southerly winds should boost dew points into the 50s overnight and likely even some 60s. This will help fuel some thunderstorms.
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There will be a lesser chance for small hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Right now the system appears likely to produce a broken line of thunderstorms late tonight - the conditions are not exactly favorable for tornadoes. However, there will at least be a chance - so pay attention in the event a few watches and warnings are issued. It only takes one tornado to cause problems. As you already know.
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A cold front will push through the region on Wednesday - this will usher in windy conditions and bring an end to the thunderstorm chances. Right now it appears the front should move through the Carbondale to Paducah area sometime during late morning or early afternoon.
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Thunderstorms will return by Thursday night and Friday. Once again we will have to monitor for a few severe thunderstorms over at least part of our region. See the extended discussion.
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Let's take a look at where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the risk zone for severe weather. We are in a slight risk. That means that a few severe thunderstorms are possible but the severe weather is not expected to be widespread in nature.
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This is the outlook for this evening into early Wednesday morning
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And here are the chances for tornadoes, hail, and high winds. You can see all three are in the minimal category.
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Now let's take a look at the severe weather risk outlined for Wednesday after 7 or 8 am and into the afternoon hours - keep in mind that the risk ends from west to east as the day wears on.
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Let's take a quick look at what one of the future-cast models is predicting for thunderstorm development - again this is one models solution.
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The first image is for around 2 am - the second image is around 3-4 then the next image is around 5 am am and the last image is around 6 am. You can see some storms forming and moving northeast through the area.
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Check out the temperatures over the next few days - SPRING has arrived! No doubt about it. Meteorological Spring begins on March 1st - I think winter never arrived in our region.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Some areas may receive very little precipitation - this will depend on just how much shower and thunderstorm activity develops tonight.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: February 25th-March 10th
Event: Active weather pattern with several chances for precipitation.
Severe Risk: Likely going to be some severe weather over the coming weeks
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Winter STORM outlook...

What are the chances for a winter weather event (see definition below - over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter weather event would be the potential for snow - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Wednesday - 0%

Thursday - 0%

Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

Tuesday - 0%

1. The extended forecast contains more thunderstorm chances. A potent storm system will develop and move through our region on Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible along and ahead of a warm front on Thursday night. A few of these storms could produce small hail. A better chance for organized thunderstorms will arrive on Friday. We will have to monitor this system for another chance of some severe storms. Still some time to watch that one. I like to keep the severe weather forecasts in the short range discussions.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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All other states- Click Here
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February 29th-March 1st: Severe weather likely Thursday night/Friday

February 28th-29th: Some storms tonight ending on Wednesday

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