Your Hometown Weather: November 2, 2011: Some wet weather ahead of us

November 2, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Tuesday night: Mostly clear skies. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 38-44 degree range. | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Wednesday: Mostly sunny - mild. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 66-72 degree range. | Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with a showers developing after midnight. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 47 degrees | Wind: South at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 60%.
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday: Colder - rain and a few rumbles of thunder. Becoming windy with falling temperatures. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 50-52 degrees then falling into the 40s during the afternoon hours. | Wind: Southerly/southwest winds at 10-15 mph early then becoming westerly at 15-25 mph with higher gusts possible. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 100%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
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Wild card in the forecast will be what the high temperature will be on Thursday morning - most likely in the lower 50s with temps then falling during the day - into the 40s by afternoon.

No major changes in the forecast.

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few thunderstorms possible after midnight.

Thursday: Severe weather risk appears very low - will monitor for any changes. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? There could be a few thunderstorms
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HEADLINE: Short update because today is a travel day - Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry - mild on Wednesday.

A cold front and area of low pressure moves into the region late on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring the next chance of rain to the region. Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.50" seem about right for this system.

Dramatic weather changes will occur on Thursday - rain will overspread the region and the mild temperatures on Wednesday will be but a memory. Temperatures on Thursday will fall through the day with gusty westerly winds.

Temperatures will drop a good 20-30 degrees on Thursday compared to Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon temperatures will be in the 40s with gusty winds (compared with near 70 degrees on Wednesday afternoon).

Severe weather is not anticipated with the storm system on Thursday.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 6th - November 7th
Event: A line of showers and possible thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Low chances.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east/northeast.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.40"
Confidence: Low
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Date Range: November 8th -November 10th
Event: Showers and thunderstorms - possibly heavy
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on this part of the forecast. .

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Storm system develops in the central United States and pushes east
Confidence: Low

Date Range: November 15th -November 20th
Event: Cold wave - below normal temperatures
Severe Risk:

Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low

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1. The next potential system arrives late in the period - perhaps around November 6th-8th. This is a system that I have been talking about since the 22nd or 23rd of October. Almost all of the latest data takes a deep low into the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. This low will have a cold front trailing from it - this front will push through our region on Sunday. Data indicates a lack of moisture and instability. If this is the case then our chances for heavy precipitation and/or thunderstorms will be minimal. However, I will need to closely monitor trends - wind fields will be quite strong.

Additional weather events are likely after Sunday and Monday - active pattern developing. Too soon to make a call on severe weather for the third system (the November 8th-11th time frame). Data is inconsistent. Will monitor.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.

I would not be surprised if our area witnessed some snow before November comes to an end.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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