.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-25 mph with gusts above 30 mph in open areas/lakes - winds shifting towards the west late.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.00" with locally higher totals"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Wind: Northwesterly winds at 5-15 mph.
Wind Chill: Into the upper 20s or lower 30s
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
.
Good chance for rain on Sunday night into Tuesday - can't rule out some snow. Stay tuned.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Wind on Saturday will be strong. Otherwise - parades may find themselves wet tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.
.
.
Windy conditions on Saturday with rain developing. If you are out on area lakes then use caution.
.
Wild card in the forecast is whether we see some snow pellets or flurries on Sunday.
.
Click Here.
.
----
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray rumble of thunder possible.
.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.
Friday night: Increasing clouds.
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: 40s with temperatures rising after midnight | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Saturday: Windy at times. Rain becoming likely by late afternoon - esp over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri - then spreading into western Kentucky and western Tennessee late in the day. Locally heavy downpours possible in a few spots.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 60-65 degrees then temperatures falling during the afternoon hours. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-25 mph with gusts above 30 mph in open areas/lakes - winds shifting towards the west late.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.00" with locally higher totals"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Saturday night: Rain likely. Colder.
Below normal temperatures.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Additional rainfall totals: 0.40-0.80"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Additional rainfall totals: 0.40-0.80"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Sunday: Cold. A chance for a few sprinkles - possibly mixed with a flurry or snow pellet. Rain may once again increase in coverage as we push towards Sunday evening.
Highs: around 37-41 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Northwesterly winds at 5-15 mph.
Wind Chill: Into the upper 20s or lower 30s
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
.
Good chance for rain on Sunday night into Tuesday - can't rule out some snow. Stay tuned.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Wind on Saturday will be strong. Otherwise - parades may find themselves wet tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.
.
Windy conditions on Saturday with rain developing. If you are out on area lakes then use caution.
.
Wild card in the forecast is whether we see some snow pellets or flurries on Sunday.
.
.
.
Tweaked temperatures - lowered them for Saturday night and Sunday.
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray rumble of thunder possible.
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray rumble of thunder possible.
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A stray rumble of thunder possible.
.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Can't rule out some cold rain mixed with snow pellets/flurries.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.
.
.
HEADLINE: Get ready for a ride. Mother nature is about to take us for a bit of a roller-coaster ride in the coming days. Temperatures will start out mild on Saturday and then fall into the 30s on Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get out of the 30s. Monday will be cold, as well.
.
Here is the 850 mb map for Saturday vs Sunday (maps from www.wright-weather.com) - check out the arrows coming up from the south and southwest on Saturday - this is warm air moving into the region in advance of the storm system that will deliver our rain chances. THEN check out the second graphic - 850 mb upper air chart showing much colder air moving into the region behind the storm on Sunday. Sunday will be cold/raw. Click maps for real view size
.
Saturday - above
.
Sunday - Above - this is the 850 mb temp/wind fields (850 mb is several thousand feet above the surface)
.
The rain we have been talking about for a few weeks will arrive late on Saturday. The whole system has slowed down a little bit. This means the bulk of the rain for southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Can't rule out some sprinkles in the morning - or light showers.
.
Severe weather is not forecast with this system.
.
Rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00" will be widespread across our counties. Some locally heavier amounts can't be ruled out.
.
The rain - what rain lingers - on Sunday may mix with a flurry or snow pellet.
.
Check the long range discussion for what happens after Sunday.
.
Here are the precipitation maps for Saturday and Sunday
.
.
HEADLINE: Get ready for a ride. Mother nature is about to take us for a bit of a roller-coaster ride in the coming days. Temperatures will start out mild on Saturday and then fall into the 30s on Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get out of the 30s. Monday will be cold, as well.
.
Here is the 850 mb map for Saturday vs Sunday (maps from www.wright-weather.com) - check out the arrows coming up from the south and southwest on Saturday - this is warm air moving into the region in advance of the storm system that will deliver our rain chances. THEN check out the second graphic - 850 mb upper air chart showing much colder air moving into the region behind the storm on Sunday. Sunday will be cold/raw. Click maps for real view size
.
.
.
The rain we have been talking about for a few weeks will arrive late on Saturday. The whole system has slowed down a little bit. This means the bulk of the rain for southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Can't rule out some sprinkles in the morning - or light showers.
.
Severe weather is not forecast with this system.
.
Rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00" will be widespread across our counties. Some locally heavier amounts can't be ruled out.
.
The rain - what rain lingers - on Sunday may mix with a flurry or snow pellet.
.
Check the long range discussion for what happens after Sunday.
.
Here are the precipitation maps for Saturday and Sunday
.
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
.
.
Can't rule out a few flurries or snow pellets on Sunday or Sunday night. No measurable snow is forecast.
.
Can't rule out a few flurries or snow pellets on Sunday or Sunday night. No measurable snow is forecast.
.
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
.
Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
.
.
---
.
Date Range: November 27th -November 31st
Event: Below to much below normal temperatures. Can't rule out some mixed precipitation - and rain. Some of the rain may be moderate.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details: Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm.
Confidence in my forecast: High confidence on the cold
.
Date Range: November 27th -November 31st
Event: Below to much below normal temperatures. Can't rule out some mixed precipitation - and rain. Some of the rain may be moderate.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details: Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm.
Confidence in my forecast: High confidence on the cold
.
Date Range: December 1st - December 12th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
.
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
.
-----------------------------
.
1. Wow is the weather about to change. This is what makes meteorology exciting. To go from the 60s one day to the 30s the next. Of course we have witnessed much more dramatic swings than those. But - it is a reminder that winter is knocking on our door.
.
There continues to be wild fluctuations in the model data for the upcoming two week period. This happens with the changing of the seasons. Seen it many times - will see it many more times.
.
It does make it harder to forecast long range pattern shifts.
.
Much colder weather will invade our region on Sunday and this will last on and off into the first part of December. Of course beyond that range it will be winter - so cold air is a given.
.
The big BIG question for the upcoming week continues to center around an area of low pressure that has been forecast to cut off somewhere in the Ohio and/or Tennessee Valleys. Where this cut off low ends up - assuming it forms - will have dramatic impacts on our weather.
.
The current data indicates anything from dry weather on Sunday night through Tuesday to moderate rain and a mix of snow at times. The question is which of the model data will be correct. This is the forecast that every National Weather Service Office is currently struggling with.
.
I am thinking we see an area of low pressure develop somewhere in the TN Valley. The track of this storm will likely be north/northeast. The question is just how developed will it become and where does it track. Track is key to precipitation and precipitation type.
.
Right now it appears that if rain were to occur that it would be on Monday into Monday night. Sunday night is tricky - then ending the precipitation on Tuesday is tricky. Timing will need to be updated. Rainfall totals of 1"+ are likely Sunday night through Tuesday.
.
If precipitation does occur then it could be a cold rain with perhaps a rain/snow mix in some areas. It is not impossible, if this storm forms right, for it to produce snow south of our region on Monday. Again - speculation and assumption that the storm forms as I expect it to.
.
Accumulating snow would be possible if the storm develops deep enough - where the accumulating snow would occur would depend on the exact track of the 850 mb low and the strength of that feature. It might even occur in areas to our south. I know that sounds strange - but that is how these systems work.
.
A lot of tweaking will be needed for the Monday/Tuesday forecast time frame.
.
My confidence on the Monday/Tuesday storm system is about 40%.
.
Precipitation could linger into Wednesday - depending on how fast the storm exits.
.
.
Cold weather will continue into the first part of December. The potential for one or more cold shots with much below normal temperatures appears high. The first one being the Sunday cold - with highs struggling to get out of the 40s.
.
There continues to be wild fluctuations in the model data for the upcoming two week period. This happens with the changing of the seasons. Seen it many times - will see it many more times.
.
It does make it harder to forecast long range pattern shifts.
.
Much colder weather will invade our region on Sunday and this will last on and off into the first part of December. Of course beyond that range it will be winter - so cold air is a given.
.
The big BIG question for the upcoming week continues to center around an area of low pressure that has been forecast to cut off somewhere in the Ohio and/or Tennessee Valleys. Where this cut off low ends up - assuming it forms - will have dramatic impacts on our weather.
.
The current data indicates anything from dry weather on Sunday night through Tuesday to moderate rain and a mix of snow at times. The question is which of the model data will be correct. This is the forecast that every National Weather Service Office is currently struggling with.
.
I am thinking we see an area of low pressure develop somewhere in the TN Valley. The track of this storm will likely be north/northeast. The question is just how developed will it become and where does it track. Track is key to precipitation and precipitation type.
.
Right now it appears that if rain were to occur that it would be on Monday into Monday night. Sunday night is tricky - then ending the precipitation on Tuesday is tricky. Timing will need to be updated. Rainfall totals of 1"+ are likely Sunday night through Tuesday.
.
If precipitation does occur then it could be a cold rain with perhaps a rain/snow mix in some areas. It is not impossible, if this storm forms right, for it to produce snow south of our region on Monday. Again - speculation and assumption that the storm forms as I expect it to.
.
Accumulating snow would be possible if the storm develops deep enough - where the accumulating snow would occur would depend on the exact track of the 850 mb low and the strength of that feature. It might even occur in areas to our south. I know that sounds strange - but that is how these systems work.
.
A lot of tweaking will be needed for the Monday/Tuesday forecast time frame.
.
My confidence on the Monday/Tuesday storm system is about 40%.
.
Precipitation could linger into Wednesday - depending on how fast the storm exits.
.
.
Cold weather will continue into the first part of December. The potential for one or more cold shots with much below normal temperatures appears high. The first one being the Sunday cold - with highs struggling to get out of the 40s.
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment