November 27th-28th: Wet and cold - coldest air of season this week

November 26th and 27th, 2011
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night:  Chilly rain from time to time - drizzle.  Rain may mix with snow at times.
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Feels like temperature:  In the 20s

Wind:  North winds at 10-15 mph - gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 80%   | Rainfall totals:  0.10-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday:  Chilly rain from time to time - drizzle - rain mixed with sleet and snow from time to time - slushy accumulation on grass not out of the question.  Rain increasing more during the afternoon and evening hours.    
Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 40 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Feels like temperature:  In the 20s
Wind: North winds at 10-20 mph. - gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 70%  Rainfall totals:   010-0.40" 
Confidence in this forecast is high

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Monday night:  Cloudy - chilly - with rain at times.  Rain mixed with or changing to sleet and snow from time to time - slushy accumulation on grass not out of the question. 
Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Feels like temperature:  In the 20s/30s
Wind:  North winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90%  Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.60" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday:  Cloudy and chilly - a chance for rainRain mixed with or changing to sleet and snow from time to time - slushy accumulation on grass not out of the question
Below normal temperatures. 
Highs:  around 40-42 degrees  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Feels like temperature:  In the 20s/30s
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph. - gusts above 20 mph   
Precipitation probability - 70%  Rainfall totals:  0.20-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Rain - on and off.  Periods of sleet and snow mixed in.  Accumulations are possible - mainly on grassy surfaces and cars.
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Monitor for updates on the snow potential.

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The wild card in this forecast is whether there might be some rain/snow mix at times.  No big changes from previous forecast thoughts - novelty event if it snows at all.  Any snow that accumulates would be on grassy surfaces for the most part.  If a heavier band of snow develops then several inches of slushy snow may accumulate in some areas.
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Tweaked precipitation type forecast - totals, as well.


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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No significant snow or ice.
Sunday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Some snow or sleet possible at times.
Monday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Monday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Some snow or sleet possible.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  Mix of snow and sleet at times.
Tuesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: 
Cold rain continues this afternoon.  Most areas have picked up between 1-2" of rain since it started yesterday afternoon.  Here at the Weather Observatory we have picked up a little over 1.60".  This is on top of the 7 1/2" over the last two weeks.  Wet wet wet.
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Cold temperatures moved into the region overnight.  Highs today struggled to get out of the 40s.  As of this writing, at 3 pm, temperatures are in the upper 30s and lower 40s over most of our region.
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Rain will continue on and off into Tuesday.  There will be some breaks - especially over the western half of the region.  Rain should increase in coverage on Monday evening as the upper level low moves around a bit.  
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Rain will finally come to an end on Tuesday.  Can't rule out some rain/snow mix in some of our counties over the next few days.  This would be a novelty event.  Significant accumulations are not forecast.  Accumulations would most likely be on grassy areas or cars - table tops.
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Can't rule out heavier snow a bit south of our area - mainly in parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, and perhaps Mississippi/Alabama.  Closer to the upper level lows core.  This is where the coldest temperatures should be.  Ground temperatures are warm and actual surface temperatures are marginal for a snow event.  
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IF a heavier band of snow forms in our region then accumulations could occur.  These upper level systems are notorious for producing pockets of heavy snow - in bands.  Snow can accumulate to the depth of several inches rather quickly.
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Temperatures on Monday will be below normal - see graphic below.  This isn't the temperature - this is how much below normal we will be on Monday.
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Here are the WIND CHILL forecast maps for Monday and Tuesday - a bit on the cold side ;)
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Can't rule out some snow mixed with the rain at times.  Some accumulation is possible - especially in parts of Kentucky and Indiana.  Monitor for updated forecasts.

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range:  November 27th -November 31st
Event:  Below to much below normal temperatures.  Can't rule out some mixed precipitation.
Severe Risk:  None
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details:  Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm. 
Confidence in my forecastHigh on the cold

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Date Range:  December 1st - December 11th
Event:  Mostly below normal temperatures.  Active pattern.
Severe Risk:  Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Possible precipitation around the 4th-6th
Details:  Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.  Possible precip around the 4th-6th - rain or a mix.  Too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
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Date Range:  December 12th - December 18th
Event:  Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  One or two precipitation events possible
Details:  Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures.  A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecastLow
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Date Range:  December 16th - December 22nd
Event:  Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk:  Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk:  Unknown
Details:  A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecastLow 
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Date Range:  December 27th-30th
Event:  Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:  
Frozen Precipitation Risk
Details:  Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast:  Low


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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

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1.  No major changes to the extended.  Coldest air of the season later this week with temperatures well down into the 20s.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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