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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph early then 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwesterly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Rain enters the picture on Friday night and Saturday - locally heavy rain possible. Then big questions surround Sunday into next Tuesday - mixed precipitation? Chilly weather.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Click Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: A sprinkle or patchy drizzle possible - light shower. Some fog possible, as well. Turning cooler.
Lows: in the lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph early then 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Some morning fog possible. Cool. Partly to mostly cloudy skies - can't rule out a patch or two of drizzle.
Below normal temperatures early.
Highs: around 54 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Below normal temperatures early.
Wind: Northwesterly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday night: Areas of fog possible - cooler.
Near normal temperatures.
Near normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: Light and variable winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Light and variable winds
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thanksgiving: Fog possible in the morning. A mix of sun and clouds.
Highs: around 55-60 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Rain enters the picture on Friday night and Saturday - locally heavy rain possible. Then big questions surround Sunday into next Tuesday - mixed precipitation? Chilly weather.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved in during the overnight hours on Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-2" were reported in many counties with pockets of heavier amounts.
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Thankfully the severe storms did not develop.
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Portions of our region have picked up from 3-7" of rain over the past eight days. That is a lot of rain - this coming in a year of near record rainfall. More rain will arrive Friday night into Saturday night.
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The good news is that Thanksgiving Day will be dry - some dense fog is possible on both Wednesday and Thursday morning - use caution if this does develop.
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Temperatures will be seasonable on Thanksgiving Day with highs around 60 degrees.
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Rain arrives late Friday night or Saturday. I am thinking another 1" or so will be possible. Locally heavier amounts.
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Then big questions surround the arrival of the colder air we have been talking about for around a month now. The end of November into the first part of December was forecast to turn cold. That appears to be on track.
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As the low pressure passes us by on Saturday it may find itself cut off from the flow on Sunday into early next week. If this does occur then some light precipitation may develop in the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will support a cold rain and perhaps even some mixed precipitation. This will need to be monitored.
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This cut low may announce the arrival of the pattern change we have been talking about since late October and early November - for the end of the month period into December.
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These cut off lows can be extremely difficult to forecast - the exact placement of the low will determine whether snow - measurable snow - or rain impacts our weather on Sunday into Tuesday. Most likely this would be a novelty event - some rain mixed with snow - or snow showers with pellets of sleet.
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Forecasting frozen precipitation more than a day in advance can, at times, be tricky - let alone DAYS in advance.
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Bottom line - a precipitation event is possible Sunday into Tuesday. It may be cold enough for a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow in or near our region. The exact placement of the upper level features will be key to who receives what type of precipitation. If we can generate enough cold air into the system then some snowflakes might be possible in a few areas. Wet ground conditions - warm ground conditions might not make it easy for snow to actually stick. I would not get overly excited about this potential. I would give it a 20-30% chance, at this time, for a wintry precipitation event at some point between Sunday and Tuesday of next week.
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So keep the above in mind before telling someone Beau said it was going to snow!
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The forecast will be fine tuned right on into and through the weekend.
HEADLINE: Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved in during the overnight hours on Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-2" were reported in many counties with pockets of heavier amounts.
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Thankfully the severe storms did not develop.
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Portions of our region have picked up from 3-7" of rain over the past eight days. That is a lot of rain - this coming in a year of near record rainfall. More rain will arrive Friday night into Saturday night.
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The good news is that Thanksgiving Day will be dry - some dense fog is possible on both Wednesday and Thursday morning - use caution if this does develop.
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Temperatures will be seasonable on Thanksgiving Day with highs around 60 degrees.
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Rain arrives late Friday night or Saturday. I am thinking another 1" or so will be possible. Locally heavier amounts.
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Then big questions surround the arrival of the colder air we have been talking about for around a month now. The end of November into the first part of December was forecast to turn cold. That appears to be on track.
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As the low pressure passes us by on Saturday it may find itself cut off from the flow on Sunday into early next week. If this does occur then some light precipitation may develop in the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will support a cold rain and perhaps even some mixed precipitation. This will need to be monitored.
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This cut low may announce the arrival of the pattern change we have been talking about since late October and early November - for the end of the month period into December.
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These cut off lows can be extremely difficult to forecast - the exact placement of the low will determine whether snow - measurable snow - or rain impacts our weather on Sunday into Tuesday. Most likely this would be a novelty event - some rain mixed with snow - or snow showers with pellets of sleet.
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Forecasting frozen precipitation more than a day in advance can, at times, be tricky - let alone DAYS in advance.
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Bottom line - a precipitation event is possible Sunday into Tuesday. It may be cold enough for a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow in or near our region. The exact placement of the upper level features will be key to who receives what type of precipitation. If we can generate enough cold air into the system then some snowflakes might be possible in a few areas. Wet ground conditions - warm ground conditions might not make it easy for snow to actually stick. I would not get overly excited about this potential. I would give it a 20-30% chance, at this time, for a wintry precipitation event at some point between Sunday and Tuesday of next week.
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So keep the above in mind before telling someone Beau said it was going to snow!
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The forecast will be fine tuned right on into and through the weekend.
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Thanksgiving Day Weather Map
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And for those interested :) - here is the map for Sunday - you can see the mixed precipitation in the region. Keep in mind that this is far from certain. There are still questions as to whether the low actually does cut off. We need the low to cut off in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and we also need temperatures to be cold enough to support frozen precipitation. Just be away of the possibilities. I know we have some snow fans among our group.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Thanksgiving Day Weather Map
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in our local forecast through at least Saturday
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Snow is not in our local forecast through at least Saturday
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 26th
Event: Showers and some thunderstorms - locally heavy rain possible.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather - locally heavy rain is possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Another in a series of storm systems will impact our region. Cold front with showers and thunderstorms - colder air behind the system. Rain may start as early as Friday night.
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: November 27th -November 31st
Event: Below to much below normal temperatures. Can't rule out some mixed precipitation - low chance - but will monitor.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Another possible event towards the very end of the month - highly uncertain
Details: Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm.
Confidence in my forecast: High on the cold - low on the precipitation
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Date Range: November 26th
Event: Showers and some thunderstorms - locally heavy rain possible.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather - locally heavy rain is possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Another in a series of storm systems will impact our region. Cold front with showers and thunderstorms - colder air behind the system. Rain may start as early as Friday night.
Confidence in my forecast: Very high
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Date Range: November 27th -November 31st
Event: Below to much below normal temperatures. Can't rule out some mixed precipitation - low chance - but will monitor.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Another possible event towards the very end of the month - highly uncertain
Details: Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm.
Confidence in my forecast: High on the cold - low on the precipitation
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Date Range: December 1st - December 12th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible the first few days of the month
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible the first few days of the month
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No big changes on my thoughts for the upcoming weekend and into the end of November - first part of December. Colder air is likely to move into the region behind our weekend storm. Next week could bring the coldest air of the season - thus far.
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The weekend storm will produce another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.75-1.50" range.
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Rain is most likely to move in late Friday night and Saturday. SHOPPING on Friday morning should be just fine with temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s - winds in the 5-10 mph range - increasing during the day on Friday to 10-20 mph.
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What happens after the storm exits is the biggest question. Models are cutting off the low over the Ohio Valley - this would mean cloudy, cold, and windy conditions into Sunday/Monday/Tuesday with even some light precipitation. We will have to monitor this - mixed precipitation can't be ruled out. This will depend on the low cutting off and on temperature profiles over the region.
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Again - next week may bring some cold air to the region with much below normal temperatures expected.
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Here is the 500 mb map for next Monday - this is one impressive cut off low and trough
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Images from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real view size
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The 850 mb map
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And for good measure - BUFKIT from the GFS model - shows some mixed precip chances. Rain and sleet/snow next week.
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I will be watching several precipitation chances the first 2 weeks of December and a possible significant storm system towards the end of December. Lot of cold air is building - this will likely be a dramatic switch from Novembers weather.
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Again - next week may bring some cold air to the region with much below normal temperatures expected.
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Here is the 500 mb map for next Monday - this is one impressive cut off low and trough
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Images from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real view size
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The 850 mb map
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And for good measure - BUFKIT from the GFS model - shows some mixed precip chances. Rain and sleet/snow next week.
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I will be watching several precipitation chances the first 2 weeks of December and a possible significant storm system towards the end of December. Lot of cold air is building - this will likely be a dramatic switch from Novembers weather.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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