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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution (when I update the video it will appear below).
.Video update is best viewed in full screen mode - for higher resolution (when I update the video it will appear below).
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: A few high clouds - not as cold.
Lows: in the 35-40 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.Below normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Increasing clouds - a slight chance for a shower towards evening. Windy. Warmer.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 62-66 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 35 mph at times.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely.
Above normal temperatures.
Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph - winds turning more northerly over the north half of the region as the front approaches and moves through the region.
Precipitation probability - 70% late | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph - winds turning more northerly over the north half of the region as the front approaches and moves through the region.
Precipitation probability - 70% late | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms from time to time.
Highs: around 58-64 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Winds over our northern counties will be more northerly as the front passes through the region.
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.40" - pockets of heavier rain
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thanksgiving will be dry and cool. Thanksgiving weekend could be stormy. Stay tuned.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!
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Have YOU liked the Facebook page for the National Weather Service Forecast Office out of Paducah, Kentucky? These are the people that issue our winter storm watches and warnings - ice storm warnings - tornado warnings - flood information: Here is their page - click here and hit LIKE at the top of their pages
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Our next storm system is already taking shape to our southwest and northwest. This system will start to spread clouds into the region by Saturday afternoon. Rain and some thunderstorms will develop on Saturday night and continue on and off into Wednesday morning.
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There will be several rounds of precipitation over the coming days. It will not rain every hour - but there will be on/off shower chances with a few thunderstorms mixed in.
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One period of rain will arrive on Saturday night and Sunday morning - then somewhat of a lull before more rain develops late on Sunday into Monday morning. Another round of widespread rain is likely on Monday night into Tuesday.
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Bottom line - wet conditions as we push forward into the weekend.
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Rainfall totals of 1-2" in most of our counties with locally heavier amounts in excess of 3" possible. This could cause some problems with ponding of water and flood prone areas (ditches, creeks, streams, and areas where leaves have clogged drains).
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Temperatures will be near normal to above normal through the weekend and the first part of next week. Then another cold shot of air.
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Thanksgiving will be dry and cool.
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Speaking of Thanksgiving - here are the graphics for Thanksgiving Day - the precipitation map followed by the high and low temperature forecasts
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
HEADLINE: Don't forget WINTER WEATHER PREPAREDNESS WEEK HAS ARRIVED - CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION!
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Have YOU liked the Facebook page for the National Weather Service Forecast Office out of Paducah, Kentucky? These are the people that issue our winter storm watches and warnings - ice storm warnings - tornado warnings - flood information: Here is their page - click here and hit LIKE at the top of their pages
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Our next storm system is already taking shape to our southwest and northwest. This system will start to spread clouds into the region by Saturday afternoon. Rain and some thunderstorms will develop on Saturday night and continue on and off into Wednesday morning.
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There will be several rounds of precipitation over the coming days. It will not rain every hour - but there will be on/off shower chances with a few thunderstorms mixed in.
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One period of rain will arrive on Saturday night and Sunday morning - then somewhat of a lull before more rain develops late on Sunday into Monday morning. Another round of widespread rain is likely on Monday night into Tuesday.
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Bottom line - wet conditions as we push forward into the weekend.
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Rainfall totals of 1-2" in most of our counties with locally heavier amounts in excess of 3" possible. This could cause some problems with ponding of water and flood prone areas (ditches, creeks, streams, and areas where leaves have clogged drains).
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Temperatures will be near normal to above normal through the weekend and the first part of next week. Then another cold shot of air.
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Thanksgiving will be dry and cool.
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Speaking of Thanksgiving - here are the graphics for Thanksgiving Day - the precipitation map followed by the high and low temperature forecasts
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 20th -November 23rd
Event: Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
Event: Unsettled with several periods of showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Appears wet with several low pressure areas in the central United States
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: November 26th -November 27th
Event: Showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on this
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Small at end of storm
Details: Another widespread rain event
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
Event: Showers and thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Windy at times.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call on this
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Small at end of storm
Details: Another widespread rain event
Confidence in my forecast: Very High
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Date Range: November 26th -December 2nd
Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air. Transient in nature. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather - locally heavy rain is possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown - too soon to make a call on that
Details: Potential for occasional short shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence in my forecast: High
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Event: Active weather pattern - we will be between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south - multiple storm systems may bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms - occasional shots of cold air. Transient in nature. Expect several significant cold waves towards the end of the month into first part of December.
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a forecast on severe weather - locally heavy rain is possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown - too soon to make a call on that
Details: Potential for occasional short shots of cold air with an active pattern - will be near the boundary of cold/warm air - plenty of chances for rain and possible thunderstorms.
Confidence in my forecast: High
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Date Range: December 3rd-5th
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
Event: Below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 7th-10th
Event: Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 27th-January 1st
Event: Strong storm system moves into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Event: Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Date Range: December 27th-January 1st
Event: Strong storm system moves into the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Basically watching the next storm system for Saturday night into next Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur in our region. Right now the severe weather risk appears minimal. Will monitor - remember that I try to keep the severe forecast in the short range section of the blog.
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Heavy rain will be possible - widespread 1-2" of rain with pockets of 2-4" of rain not out of the question. I will need to fine tune the exact placement of the heaviest rain bands. It will not rain all the time Saturday night through Wednesday - on and off periods of showers and storms.
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Here is the rainfall map from the LAST seven days - you can see that we don't need a lot more rain.
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Click image for real view size.
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THANKSGIVING will be DRY and cool! Enjoy that part of the forecast.
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Here is the latest six to ten day outlook for precipitation - above normal precipitation is denoted by the green colored area. We are in the above normal precipitation chances.
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Another storm system will impact the region around the 25th-27th. This could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will again be possible with this storm. Too soon to make a call on wintry precipitation. There will be cold air following the storm. Another widespread 1/2-1" of rain likely. Pockets of heavier totals will be possible.
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Here is the 500 mb map from www.wright-weather.com - showing you the strong jet diving south and pulling up moisture into our region. This is for the storm around the 26th - give or take a day. Will be watching this one closely, as well. Click images for real view size.
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And the 300 mb jet stream map - dive dive dive - but hey, what does that mean for our weather? That is what you care about. Well - it could mean another significant rain event - thunderstorms.
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There could be several inches of rain between now and the end of the month. It would not take too much more rain to cause some hydrological problems in the region (flooding). This will need to be monitored. Flooding concerns would mostly be low lying areas that typically have problems during lengthy periods of rain - small streams - ditches - poor drainage areas.
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Regardless of how the pattern eventually unfolds it does appear unsettled weather will occur during the upcoming weeks. The colder air is locked up in Canada and further north - still waiting for it to make a real move south and east. When this happens then it would likely signal a change in the overall pattern.
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Heavy rain will be possible - widespread 1-2" of rain with pockets of 2-4" of rain not out of the question. I will need to fine tune the exact placement of the heaviest rain bands. It will not rain all the time Saturday night through Wednesday - on and off periods of showers and storms.
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Here is the rainfall map from the LAST seven days - you can see that we don't need a lot more rain.
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Click image for real view size.
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.THANKSGIVING will be DRY and cool! Enjoy that part of the forecast.
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Here is the latest six to ten day outlook for precipitation - above normal precipitation is denoted by the green colored area. We are in the above normal precipitation chances.
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Another storm system will impact the region around the 25th-27th. This could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will again be possible with this storm. Too soon to make a call on wintry precipitation. There will be cold air following the storm. Another widespread 1/2-1" of rain likely. Pockets of heavier totals will be possible.
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Here is the 500 mb map from www.wright-weather.com - showing you the strong jet diving south and pulling up moisture into our region. This is for the storm around the 26th - give or take a day. Will be watching this one closely, as well. Click images for real view size.
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And the 300 mb jet stream map - dive dive dive - but hey, what does that mean for our weather? That is what you care about. Well - it could mean another significant rain event - thunderstorms.
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There could be several inches of rain between now and the end of the month. It would not take too much more rain to cause some hydrological problems in the region (flooding). This will need to be monitored. Flooding concerns would mostly be low lying areas that typically have problems during lengthy periods of rain - small streams - ditches - poor drainage areas.
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Regardless of how the pattern eventually unfolds it does appear unsettled weather will occur during the upcoming weeks. The colder air is locked up in Canada and further north - still waiting for it to make a real move south and east. When this happens then it would likely signal a change in the overall pattern.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February - with a cooler than average spring and stormy/wet spring. The cold air this winter will depend on the blocking - more blocking = colder weather.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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