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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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. Video best viewed in full screen mode.
. Video best viewed in full screen mode.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Increasing cloudiness. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 49-55 degree range. | Wind: South at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Mostly cloudy and mild - a stray shower possible over the western counties. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 65-70 degrees. | Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10% My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 52-56 degrees | Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 20%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Partly cloudy - a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 66-74 degrees. | Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30% - better chances Tuesday night - near 100% Tuesday night/Wednesday morningMy confidence in this forecast is high
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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No
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Wild card in this forecast is whether or not southern Illinois and western Kentucky see some showers on Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon or if they hold off until Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. I put a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast - those will be more likely the further north and west you travel in the region.
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No major concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No
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Wild card in this forecast is whether or not southern Illinois and western Kentucky see some showers on Monday afternoon into Tuesday afternoon or if they hold off until Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. I put a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the forecast - those will be more likely the further north and west you travel in the region.
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No big changes!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No.
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No.
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No.
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Tuesday: Can't rule out a few strong/severe storms - but mainly towards the evening and overnight hours on Tuesday. Better chance across southeast Missouri in the afternoon/evening then shifting east into Illinois and Kentucky on Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms late in the day (better chance on Tuesday night)
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms late in the day (better chance on Tuesday night)
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Here is the official Storm Prediction Center's outlook for severe weather - for Tuesday
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Did you remember to change the batteries in your smoke detector and weather radio? Hope so!
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Sunday was BEAUTIFUL - some gusty winds, at times - but the temperatures were just about right for November. Plenty of sunshine made it feel even warmer. A near perfect day - at least for November.
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Monday will bring more clouds and those clouds will hang around right on into Wednesday. The approach of the storm system we have been talking about for three weeks is taking shape.
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Shower chances will increase on Tuesday afternoon and dramatically increase on Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. 100% chance for rain and storms on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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Right now rainfall totals should be in the 0.50" range with local amounts up to 1.00".
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It still appears that instability is lacking with this system - if instability was higher then I would be concerned about severe thunderstorms. The wind fields are strong and there will be some moisture to play with.
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Bottom line - I am forecasting a squall line (line of thunderstorms) on Tuesday night - some gusty winds with the squall line - a few reports of hail. Can't rule out some watches and warnings - widespread severe weather does NOT appear likely. However, a few reports of severe weather may occur. Best advice - listen for updates on your NOAA Weather Radio - check back on the Facebook weather page - and monitor radar on Tuesday afternoon/night. This does not appear to be a big outbreak for our counties.
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Let's take a look at the PROBABILITY (that means what is the percent chance of this happening) of at least 0.10" of rain falling between 1 PM and 7 PM on Tuesday afternoon and then the second map shows that 7 PM to 1 AM time frame - and finally the last map shows the chance of 0.10" of rain falling between 1 AM and 7 AM Wednesday morning. THIS IS NOT RADAR - this is just showing you where the best chance of rain will be during those hours. The bright red colors mean 70-100% chance of rain.
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What did we learn from that particular map? According to the probabilities the best chance of rain in the Metropolis/Paducah area might not arrive until midnight or after.
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Colder air rushes into the region on Wednesday and Thursday - nothing extreme - just below normal temperatures.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 78 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Most of this rain will fall on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry weather :) - here you go. Tuesday and Wednesday wintry precipitation forecast.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 14th -November 18th
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Thunderstorm Risk: Thunderstorms will be possible - depending on the track of the low - too soon to make a call on that subject
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Thunderstorm Risk: Thunderstorms will be possible - depending on the track of the low - too soon to make a call on that subject
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium
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Date Range: November 18th -November 23rd
Event: Cold waves - below normal temperatures
Thunderstorm Risk: n/a
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low
Event: Cold waves - below normal temperatures
Thunderstorm Risk: n/a
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as much details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as much details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Active pattern ahead of us...
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November is about to turn on us. One storm system arrives on Tuesday/Wednesday followed by another one around the 14th-18th - then several cold waves may push down into the Central United States - by cold I mean the coldest air of the season thus far.
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Temperatures behind the cold front on Wednesday of Thursday of this week will be cool again - after a few days of near normal to above normal temperatures on Monday/Tuesday. That is the way the weather roller-coaster rides this time of the year. We go up and then we go down! Nothing unusual about that subject.
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More northern lights are possible in the coming days/week - stay tuned! Here is a story on the subject.
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I do not see any substantial snow or ice threats in our region.
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Here is the NAO forecast - it is going negative. When the NAO goes negative during the fall and winter months it typically means cold weather for our region. Again - this would be a bit down the road. But I think it is coming.
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November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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