Your Hometown Weather: November 3, 2011: Rain and storms arrive tonight into Thursday

November 3, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Wednesday night: Becoming cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west after midnight. Above normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 48-54 degree range. | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 60% after midnight
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms likely - a lull in the precipitation at some point during the morning and early afternoon - then rain redevelops. Turning colder - a bit on the raw side with the clouds and rain. Windy at times. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 52-54 early in the morning then steady or falling temperatures through the afternoon hours - into the 40s. | Wind: Southerly winds shifting to the west at 10-15 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 100%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Cloudy with a few showers and light rain. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: around 44-46 degrees | Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday: Cool with mostly cloudy skies - especially early - fallish weather. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 56-64 degrees. | Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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A few thunderstorms over the coming 24 hours - lightning would be the main concern. Can't rule out some pea to dime size hail with any heavier storms that form. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No - severe weather is not expected.
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Two wild cards in this forecast - one is what time the rain ends on Thursday evening. Right now I am thinking the bulk of the rain will be over for southern Illinois and far western Kentucky by late evening. The other wild card will be the overnight lows on Thursday night - right now I am thinking 40s.

Tweaked winds - increased them a bit. Otherwise - rain moved through between 2 am and 8 am. Now a lull - more rain this afternoon.

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes, a few thunderstorms will be possible after midnight tonight. Lightning would be the main concern - can't rule out some small hail.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes, a few thunderstorms will be possible. Lightning is the main concern - small hail can't be ruled out.

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Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Friday: Severe weather risk appears very low - will monitor for any changes. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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HEADLINE: Here comes our rain producer. We have been talking about this system for over a week now. It appears everything is on track to bring our region some rain later tonight and that rain will continue right on into Thursday.

I do not anticipate any severe thunderstorms. There is quite a bit of cold air aloft and that means that some small hail can't be ruled out. Otherwise, the only concern would be lightning.

The rain should come to an end on Thursday evening. Rainfall totals will be in the 0.30-0.60" over the region - locally heavier amounts possible over parts of southeast Missouri into southwest Indiana. A band of 0.60-1.00 can't be ruled out due to the track of the low.

Snow or ice is not forecast with this system in our local region.

Thursday will also bring much cooler temperatures behind the cold front. We will go from the 70s on Wednesday afternoon into the 40s by Thursday afternoon. A brrrrr drop - just as we were getting used to the nicer temperatures.

The next weather system(s), which we have been talking about since October 22nd - appears to be on schedule for the Sunday night into Wednesday time frame. More showers and thunderstorms can be expected with a cold front during that time period. A bit too soon to make a call on whether severe weather will be a concern. Will continue to monitor. I am concerned about the potential for severe storms somewhere in the region or MS Valley.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 7th - November 11th
Event: Showers and possible thunderstorms - extended period of active weather possible next week
Severe Risk: Severe weather will be possible in the Mississippi Valley - I will need to update this as data zeroes in on storm track and moisture return.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: Two systems may impact the region - a cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east/northeast.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.60"
Confidence: Medium

Date Range: November 18th -November 23rd
Event: Cold wave - below normal temperatures
Severe Risk:

Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low

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1. The next potential system arrives late in the period - perhaps around November 6th-10th. This is a system that I have been talking about since the 22nd or 23rd of October. Almost all of the latest data takes a deep low into the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. This low will have a cold front trailing from it - this front will push through our region on Sunday. However, with a lack of moisture available it appears our greatest chance for precipitation may not arrive until a second system forms early next week.

This first system (on Saturday and Sunday) takes a lot of energy with it to our north - then a second system develops in the southwest United States and pushes into our region by early next week into the middle part of the week. Over the past week there was some debate within the models as to how all of the above systems unfold - that continues to be the case.

The best I can do at this point is say that it appears showers and thunderstorms will likely occur over our region by the early and middle part of next week.

My concerns about severe weather on Sunday are definitely lower. The system of greater concern now appears to be the second one - which won't arrive until Monday or Tuesday. Severe storms can't be ruled out. I will need to monitor and continue to update, as always.

I am watching a potential cold wave for the middle of the month - perhaps after the 18th or 19th. Lot of cold air is pooling far to the north and northwest - eventually this will find a path into the central United States - likely with a strong cold front.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here

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