Your Hometown Weather: November 4, 2011: Rain ends

November 4, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers or sprinkles - foggy. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 42-46 degree range. | Wind: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 70% of drizzle/fog/light rain
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds - mostly cloudy first half of the day - then some clearing late. Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 54-60 degrees. | Wind: North winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Mostly clear and cool. Below normal temperatures.

Lows: around 35-40 degrees | Wind: East winds at 10-15 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Saturday: Mostly sunny and pleasant - enjoy the day! Near normal temperatures.

Highs: around 56-64 degrees. | Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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No concerns!
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No
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No wild cards in the forecast.

Tweaked temps and cloud cover.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No.

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Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Saturday: Severe weather risk appears very low - will monitor for any changes. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: Dramatic weather changes indeed! We were in the 70s on Wednesday afternoon and woke up to temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s this morning. Temperatures didn't budge much through the day - a cold front with a band of rain and thunderstorms pushed through the area early in the day.

Rainfall totals were in the 0.20-0.60" range across the region. I picked up 0.34"

Winds became gusty as the front passed - winds gusted over 30 mph in many locations.

SNOW fell across parts of Missouri earlier today - Rolla, MO reported snow in their observations during the pre-noon hours.

Friday will bring dry weather - same for Saturday and Sunday. ENJOY this weekend because it will be a treat - pleasant temperatures and a lot of sunshine.

The next big storm is already on the map and will impact our region early next week - this is the one we have been talking above since October 22nd. A severe weather event is forecast for parts of the United States next week - see details in the long range section of the blog.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Note that all of this precipitation will fall tonight - rain is not expected Friday into Sunday afternoon.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Remember that the extended range outlook is typically LOW confidence and speculation on how events may unfold in or near our region - long range forecasting has a high rate of error and is prone to significant changes. Keep this in mind when reading the long range outlook.
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Date Range: November 7th - November 11th
Event: Showers and possible thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Severe weather will be possible in the Mississippi Valley. Large hail, high winds, and tornadoes can't be ruled out next week in or near our region - centered on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: A cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east/northeast. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible in or near our region.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00"
Confidence: Medium

Date Range: November 13th -November 18th
Event: Active with unsettled pattern
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern
Confidence: Low

Date Range: November 18th -November 23rd
Event: Cold wave - below normal temperatures
Severe Risk: n/a
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low

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1. This first system (on Saturday and Sunday) takes a lot of energy with it to our north - then a second system develops in the southwest United States and pushes into our region by early next week. Over the past week there was some debate within the models as to how all of the above systems unfold - that continues to be the case.

The best I can do at this point is say that it appears showers and thunderstorms will likely occur over our region by Monday night into Thursday - centered on Tuesday/Wednesday for the best chances.

This has been a difficult system to pin down - at one point I was concerned the deep low on Sunday would have an impact on our region. It is becoming more obvious, though, that the big concern is actually the second system for Monday night into Wednesday/Thursday. The first system PRIMES the moisture - in other words it pulls moisture northward. The second system will be the trigger for the storms.

Questions that remain include the exact track of the area of low pressure and instability. Right now I am leaning towards a track through northeast Oklahoma into Missouri. This would put our region in the risk for thunderstorms on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Again - long way off. Impossible to get too specific on details. That is how it appears at this time. I will continue to monitor and update with each passing day.

Of note - the Storm Prediction Center has now outlined a risk for severe weather in their long range outlook. They are putting the focus of severe storms near and west/south of our region. Don't get caught up in the specifics this far out - this is their first rough idea of where they expect severe storms.

The purple area is their Monday forecast and the green area is their Tuesday outline.

This storm will need to be closely monitored.
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And a fresh reminder today from the Paducah, Kentucky NWS Office concerning fall severe weather events. We always want to remind the public that severe weather does not just occur in the spring. It can occur at any given time of the year.
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Here is a statement that the Paducah, Kentucky NWS sent out earlier today
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First I want to remind you that we are near the peak of our secondary/fall severe weather season. Our deadliest tornadoes in recent years have been in November, and we have had more tornado fatalities from November through March in the last 2 decades than the other months of the year combined. The atmospheric wind fields have been gradually strengthening and each passing weather system could bring a cause for concern IF enough instability develops. So, please stay especially abreast of the latest forecasts/ weather updates over the coming weeks and be aware anytime we have a chance of thunderstorms. Our next good chance of thunderstorms is Tuesday and Tuesday night and severe weather is possible mainly Tuesday night as a cold front pushes east across our region, so please stay abreast of the latest weather updates as this system evolves.

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End of their comments...
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Data indicates several more systems will be possible after the middle of next week.

I am watching a potential cold wave for the middle of the month - perhaps after the 18th or 19th. Lot of cold air is pooling far to the north and northwest - eventually this will find a path into the central United States - likely with a strong cold front. I still don't see any snow systems in the forecast. I know we have some snow fans among our group. You will just have to be patient.

I promised you that November would become active and so it has.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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