Your Hometown Weather: November 6, 2011: Unsettled weather ahead of us this week

November 6, 2011

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Saturday night: Mostly clear skies - patchy fog possible. Near normal temperatures.

Lows: in the 40-46 degree range. | Wind: East at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Sunday: Increasing clouds - windy at times. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 62-66 degrees. | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph - gusts to 25 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: An increase in clouds late. Above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 48-54 degrees | Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

Monday: Some clouds and mild. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 64-68 degrees. | Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 20 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
My confidence in this forecast is very high

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Some fog is possible again on Sunday morning - gusty winds on Sunday, as well - if you are boating just take note - otherwise I don't have any concerns for the next 24 hours.
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No - but use caution in areas of fog.
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No wild cards in the forecast.

No big changes!

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A few thunderstorms possible in south central Missouri - well west of most of our counties

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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? A few thunderstorms possible in south central Missouri - well west of most of our counties

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: A reminder that we turn our clocks back ONE HOUR on Saturday night and it is a great time to change the batteries in your smoke detectors and NOAA Weather Radios!
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Saturday morning brought lots of fog to our region - dense fog. Ice was even reported on some decks as the temperatures dropped below 33 degrees. A thin layer of ice covered most everything here at my place between 6 am and 9 am. Visibility was below one quarter of a mile for several hours.

The fog finally mixed out by late morning and sunshine found its way into our region - this coming off of yesterdays stubborn clouds that would not leave!

Sunday will bring some gusty winds and increasing clouds - if you are going to go boating on Sunday then be aware that winds could gust from the south in the 20-30 mph range.

The next big weather system arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday. Can't rule out some precipitation on Monday night (mainly far western parts of the area) but won't hit that too hard right now and will keep it dry over most of our region.

Tuesday will bring the first chance for showers and thunderstorms over the entire region - I really believe the best chance for significant storms will arrive after 7 pm (could be as late as Wednesday morning if the front slows down). I will continue to fine tune the timing. There will be at least a chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms at any given point on Tuesday - just the most widespread activity should arrive Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.

A squall line will push through our counties on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This line of showers and thunderstorms will be accompanied by some strong to potentially severe storms.

Remember a watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather and a WARNING means that severe weather is occurring or is expected to occur shortly. Watches mean be alert and WARNINGS mean TAKE ACTION.

Still several days away - but I do expect the Storm Prediction Center to outline our entire region in a risk zone for severe storms. They have already outlined parts of the area.

The one main missing ingredient for a widespread severe weather event is instability. There are still some questions remaining on that topic. So, we will monitor over the coming days.

Bottom line - a line of showers and thunderstorms will push across our region on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - rainfall of 0.50" with locally heavier amounts. Some high winds possible with the line of storms - can't rule out a few hail reports. Can;t rule out a few watches and/or warnings on Tuesday night. Widespread severe weather does NOT appear likely at this time. Will monitor and update tomorrow and Monday.

Temperatures will likely fall on Wednesday during the day - as the front sweeps east. Some gusty winds possible. We may see a freeze then on Thursday morning in some counties.

We have been talking about this storm for nearly 3 weeks!

Precipitation amounts next week could be in the 0.50-1.00 range - the heavier amounts, of course, will be with any thunderstorms that train over the same area.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for Monday - you can see where they have shaded in their highest area of concern. The second image is the map outlook for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Getting closer to our region.

And here is the Tuesday outlook into Tuesday night (again this will likely change and be shifted around as the ever draws closer)

I ran the analogs on this next storm system to see what storms in the past matched the one coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday - keep in mind that these analogs give us guidance as to what has happened in the past when similar storms moved over the same area - same intensity - same track. This does not mean this is what will happen this time around - I use these maps to give me a heads up on historical comparisons - I like to use them on winter storms.

I first asked the system to tell me what the chances were of at least 0.50" of rain fall over the region - this is the map that it came up with. Pretty good chance for at least 0.50" of rain.

You will have to click the image for a real view size.

Precipitable water values (click link for what that means) will be quite high with this system - meaning that some locally heavy rain could occur with the band of showers and thunderstorms. These numbers are about 100-150% of normal for this time of the year. You can see the tongue of moisture moving up ahead of the storm system - imagine the low to the west in Missouri with its counterclockwise circulation - it PULLS moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico - northward. This warm/moist air then interacts with the cold front.

Click image for real view size.

You will notice temperatures above normal ahead of the front (again imagine the low to the west in Missouri pulling up air AHEAD of the cold front) - first map is for Tuesday. This map shows you HOW MUCH above normal temperatures will be - then the second map is for Thursday - the cold front has passed and the low will be in the Great Lakes - pulling colder air down BEHIND the cold front - see how that works! The second map tells you that temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal on Thursday.

In case you missed the earthquake this morning in Oklahoma - here is where it was centered.

The quake measured 4.7 - decent shaker for Oklahoma.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

This map is through Monday 7 pm - the second map is the 5 day total rainfall (most of our rain will fall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning).

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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Snow is not in our local forecast.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

Snow later this week will fall to our north - this is the big storm for our region on Tuesday and Wednesday - no snow for us. You will have to go north for wintry precipitation.

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 8th - November 9th (morning hours)
Event: Showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Severe weather will be possible in the Mississippi Valley. Most likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A few watches and warnings will be possible. Most likely after 6 pm on Tuesday night into the wee AM hours of Wednesday morning. Will need to fine tune this even more as we approach the event.

Frozen Precipitation Risk: None
Details: A cold front and low pressure area to our west - moves east/northeast. A few severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible in or near our region.
Impact: Rainfall totals of 0.50-1.00"
Confidence: High

Date Range: November 14th -November 18th
Event: Active with several periods of showers and thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Too soon to make a call
Frozen Precipitation Risk: n/a
Details: Data is showing an active storm pattern - potential for quite a bit of rain and storms
Confidence: Medium

Date Range: November 18th -November 23rd
Event: Cold waves - below normal temperatures
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: Potential for much below normal temperatures
Confidence: Low

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1. Here comes the active weather - as promised.

November is about to turn on us. One big storm system arrives on Tuesday/Wednesday followed by another one around the 14th - then several cold waves may push down into the Central United States - by cold I mean the coldest air of the season thus far.

Temperatures behind the cold front on Wednesday of Thursday of this week will be cool again - after a few days of near normal to above normal temperatures on Monday/Tuesday. That is the way the weather roller-coaster rides this time of the year. We go up and then we go down! Nothing unusual about that subject.

Another active storm system around the 14th-15th-16th.

I do not see any substantial snow or ice threats in our region.

Here is the NAO forecast - it is going negative. When the NAO goes negative during the fall and winter months it typically means cold weather for our region. Again - this would be a bit down the road. But I think it is coming.

November is looking as if it will be a bit of a roller coaster in the temperature department - if we do end up with several deep storm systems then we would experience warm air moving up ahead of the storms and then cold air behind the systems. Analogs are showing a cold to very cold December into February.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

All other states- Click Here

. For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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